looking for some odds

[star5328]

Heres a hand i ran into earlier tonight...about made me lose my mind...most amazing thing i've ever seen someone do. Anyway, im looking for the odds of him hitting this hand...including the fact that i have an A in my hand

PokerStars Game #1553787194: Hold'em No Limit ($0.50/$1.00) - 2005/04/20 - 03:52:08 (ET)
Table 'Haidea II' Seat #1 is the button
Seat 1: dirtydee ($47.70 in chips)
Seat 2: CrazyJimBob8 ($25.80 in chips)
Seat 3: DALY ($53.95 in chips)
Seat 4: mrgrimes ($39 in chips)
Seat 5: Pistache ($23 in chips)
Seat 6: ThisDUDEhere ($46.10 in chips)
Seat 7: m_mathers_69 ($97.20 in chips)
Seat 8: davisjj627 ($47.40 in chips)
Seat 9: JackRussell ($74 in chips)
CrazyJimBob8: posts small blind $0.50
DALY: posts big blind $1
Pistache: posts big blind $1
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to m_mathers_69 [Ac Kc]
mrgrimes: calls $1
Pistache: raises $3 to $4
ThisDUDEhere: folds
m_mathers_69: raises $3 to $7
davisjj627: folds
JackRussell: folds
dirtydee: folds
CrazyJimBob8: folds
DALY: folds
mrgrimes: folds
Pistache: calls $3
*** FLOP *** [2h Ts Kh]
Pistache: checks
m_mathers_69: bets $8.50
Pistache: calls $8.50
*** TURN *** [2h Ts Kh] [Qd]
Pistache: checks
m_mathers_69: bets $7.50
Pistache: calls $7.50 and is all-in
*** RIVER *** [2h Ts Kh Qd] [Ah]
*** SHOW DOWN ***
Pistache: shows [Js Td] (a straight, Ten to Ace)
m_mathers_69: mucks hand
Pistache collected $46.20 from pot

[Bo G]

You were 80%-20% favorite after flop. The $8.5 bet on the flop was a little too weak. Still gave him bad odds to chase gutshot but I would have bet a pot of posibly put him all in and let him make a tough desicion. Once 2nd face card I would be more carefull because of KQ posibility rather than straight.

[JeffreyGB]

80-20% is about right on the flop. He didn't even have a gutshot draw yet...he was totally calling here either thinking his T was good or looking for another T/J. His call on the flop was horrendous, given that he just joined the table and couldn't possibly have a read on you telling him that you're bluffing.

On the turn he developed to an OESD. He's now got 9 outs (2 Ts, 3 As, 4 9s), though he'd think he has 10 outs. That leaves him with 20% chance to make it on the river. Even here your small bet gives him incorrect odds, though only barely (and infact his 10 odds calculation make this a good call).

I do agree that bigger bets would have been better, but largely because he never had the odds to call you to begin with...getting your money in faster when ahead and when being called is typically a good thing.