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 Originally Posted by Demiparadigm
The only hands that have you beat are:
Q with a higher kicker (unlikely since it would be the case Q- There is 1 Q left in 47 unseen cards, so almost 5% that your opponent was dealt it. Also, you expect a fold from any Q with a kicker less than 10, so even if someone was dealt the Q, about a 60% chance they folded it.)
Q2...the " nuts" (very unlikely, I won't usually play Q9, let alone that crap)
or pocket 2s. ( 1:220 that a player has 2,2. Times 10 players 1:22 or another almost 5% I personally fold 2,2 if I don't think I'll get 4 way action in NL, or 5-6 way in limit.)
So, If you get reraised, push. you'll lose at most 10% of the time, but hey, that's no limit.
You still have 4 outs against 2,2 (17% chance of winning) or 3 against another Q (13%)
You could get called by a second best hand, such as AA or KK.
I will sometimes (rarely) reraise a check raise representing the nuts with as little as a pocket pair, depending on how I read my opponent.
I don't agree at all that if your check-raise is reraised that you should reraise all-in. Without any information about an opponents hand, it is of course very unlikely that you are beaten, but once your opponent has bet, and then raised once you represented 3 queens, it is extremely unlikely that you have the best hand. You can essentially only beat a bluff in this situation. The person most likely has queens with a better kicker or already has the full house, the most likely of the two being queens with a better kicker since a full house would almost certaintly slow-play this on the flop.
I think the proper play in this situation is to check-raise on the flop and represent the set in order to see how your opponents react to this information. If you are then raised, you should either call or fold, and if you call, be very reluctant to put much more money into the pot unless you make your full house. If no one bets on the flop, then make a sizable bet on the turn, again showing caution if anyone else in the pot appears strong.
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