I got bluffed big time - and need some feedback

[Borax]

I need some serious analysis of my play here please .
I should say that I have had some bad experience with pocket QQ lately. That, plus forum advice to be careful with top pair on the river, plus being at 50% of my stack, is the explanation for my check on the river. I also thought that if I bet the river I will be committed to go all in. My read on MP1's hand was that he held a set or a flush chase that hit.

Read on player UTG: allways has something but might play top pair too far. Would normally not chase flush here.
Read on player MP1: Nothing at all, never played him before.

0.25/0.5$ NL 10 players

Dealt to Borax:
:Qs::Qd:
------------------
OpeningBetRound
------------------
SB : Posts small blind 0.25
BB : Posts big blind 0.50
X : Sitting out
UTG : Calls for 0.50
UTG+1 : Folds
Borax : Raises for 2.00
MP1 : Calls for 2.00
MP2 : Folds
CO : Folds
Button : Folds
SB : Folds
BB : Folds
UTG : Calls for 1.50
------------------
Flop
:Ts:
------------------
UTG : Checks
Borax : Bets 7.00
MP1 : Calls for 7.00
UTG : Calls for 7.00
------------------
Turn

------------------
UTG : Checks
Borax : Bets 15.00
MP1 : Calls for 15.00
UTG : Calls for 15.00
------------------
River

------------------
UTG : Checks (37$ left in stack)
Borax : Checks (25$ left in stack)
MP1 : Went all-in 57.85
UTG : Folds
Borax : Folds
MP1 : Shows cards - (a pair of 6's)
------------------
Result
------------------
UTG: Mucked Cards
Borax: Mucked Cards
MP1: Showed Cards (Winning) 127.60
------------------

[poskid_1982]

I think this guy bluffed his ace extremely well. Tough lay down. With no read I think you bet the river and then lay down if raised. I would have stabbed at it too if I were him with you showing so much strength and then showing severe weakness on the river. Dont worry everyone makes mistakes.

[Borax]

Thanks
I guess you are right about betting the river. It's a problem I have. Flush hits that look obvious often scare me out of the hand
Bluffing like this is quite new to me. I also find this bluff to be really clever, but I think he was lucky that I held QQ and not KK or AA. Sounds strange maybe, but like I said my confidence on QQ is a bit low and made me think I was beat to easily.
As it turned out the guy in fact seems to be a total maniac. He continued to bet 43o all the way to the river paying of a solid rock player, holding a set of A's, with his pair of 4's... Then he left, still with a big stack though. I've looked at his hands in poker tracker and after seeing how he plays I will be looking for him

I guess I should thank him for showing his cards. Still I got a bit upset and really got to test my self control in the hands to come. I'm actually quite proud of playing as usual after this and finally leaving the table with a profit of 30$. I even pulled of a river bluff myself after not hitting a AKs flush draw, so I guess I learned something

[poskid_1982]

Learning something is always a plus. Not only that but I hope this reminds you to keep your play confident.

[koolmoe]

The pot is already big on the turn, and you are probably still best. Lay the hammer down there with a bigger bet (there was $28 in the pot on the turn).

If both opponents fold, that's fine, you win a decent pot.

If one or both opponents call, your river decision is a whole lot easier since you're calling a smaller bet ($15 or so) to win a bigger pot ($125 assuming both opponents call the turn).

Even with the action as it was, you were getting 4:1 on your river call. I think you have to call, since you only need to have the best hand 20% of the time to be profitable. I generally assume my opponents will bluff at least 10% of the time. Most opponents will bluff more than 20% of the time when checked to on the river after a scare card falls.

[Borax]

Good point, maybe even all in on the turn
I bet 15$ and had another 25$ to go on.

[koolmoe]

Good point, maybe even all in on the turn
I bet 15$ and had another 25$ to go on.

There are lots of rivers that are scary for QQ, so that's not a bad idea if you can't bring yourself to call down even a small bet when a scare card hits.

Basically, you want to get most of your money in while ahead but still get callers with bad odds. $15 on the turn would still give +EV odds to a flush draw when you consider the implied odds and extra opponent.

[Borax]

I would off course call a small bet on the river, but half my stack seems too much when I'm pretty sure I'm beat. I play these hands better if I have a read. With no read I get too careful. Have to work on my confidence in these situations. I find it a bit confusing with the typical advice that if someone bet on the river and you only hold a pair, your probably beat. It's not really true that often!?

Later the same evening some guy tried almost the same thing against my AA. But I had a read on him as a fish that would chase and bluff if he didn't catch. So after some thinking I called his all in on the river to
win 75$. I find myself making more and more notes on players to know how to play them and it's really worth it!

[koolmoe]

I would off course call a small bet on the river, but half my stack seems too much when I'm pretty sure I'm beat.

25 is a small bet when the pot holds 100.

[Borax]

you're right - I got too passive. Lesson learned - I hope.

What is a normal win% with QQ over time?
Like for AA I have about 85% win, but for QQ I'm about 45%.

[JeffreyGB]

Win rate for any hand depends on how many people are in the hand. Heads up, QQ is about 80%. 3-handed, about 65%.

For reference, AA is 85% heads up and 73% 3-handed.

[missmisery]

I would have called this for one reason:

You showed strenght troughout the hand, except on the river were your check indicated that you was afraid someone hit his flush. It was easy for him to put you on a high pocket pair.

Now let's suppose that this guy really had a flush, why would he bet that much?? You would probably have called a 5$ or 10$ bet but not an all-in. So he had the flush, going all-in was not the best move. For this reason, I would have called, putting him on a bluff. Sure, sometimes you'll lose this way, but most of the time (in my experience), the guy is just bluffing.

Here's an example at a .25/0.5 NL table.

I have AK, and raise 4BB preflop. Just one caller and I have position on him.

The flops come K 8 2 with 2 clubs. This guy makes a 2$ bet and I raise him to 8$. He calls.

The turn: 9 of club. He goes all-in for 50$ while there is 20$ in the pot.

That sounds like a bluff to me. I call without any hesitation. The guy shows 2 4 with only 1 club and I win a huge pot.

Edit: I also think your check on the river was the right move. A bet on the river on this situation would almost never win you money. If you bet and the guy has a flush, you will lose your bet. If you bet and the guy didn't hit his flush, he'll fold and won't make a penny out of this bet. In this situation checking I believe was the right move. After, you have to analyse his bet and see if it is worth calling. I would probably have folded to a 10$ bet, but called an all-in. That's poker

[allLiving]

Sometimes you just gotta recognize that a huge overbet like that on the river is a bluff, and you gotta sometimes bite the bullet and call.. It's a gamble, but sometimes you gotta do it.

[DoGGz]

This isn't always the case. Depending on my table image, there are many times where I'm firing at the pot with huge bets on scare cards. When I actually have the flush/straight/set people love calling the all in. Assuming that just because it's a very large bet, that it has to be a bluff is going to lose you money longterm. Make sure you analize the player before making this decicion.

Sometimes you just gotta recognize that a huge overbet like that on the river is a bluff, and you gotta sometimes bite the bullet and call.. It's a gamble, but sometimes you gotta do it.

[Greedo017]

turn bet the pot. if they both call, you'd be putting 15 or less into a 1 gajillion dollar pot and its an easy all-in.

[dsaxton]

I don't know, difficult situation. This is how a lot of fish play hands like sets or two pair. They slow-play all the way to the river and then suddenly bet big, so he could very easily have you beaten.

[elipsesjeff]

He should never have had the option of calling. An easy Value bet here against 2 opponents. What are you hoping for here? A free showdown with TPTK? Way too weak tight.

[Surf_Thug]

I didn't read through everyones replys, but I definetely would have pushed all in on the turn, only if I hadn't already pushed on the flop.

I don't mind people calling me with a flush draw, in fact, I want them to gamble with draws, becuase top pair or an over pair will come out wayyy ahead in the long run.. I would have pushed earlier in order to put them at a decision for all their chips, not just incremental $15 bets..

[dsaxton]

Assuming that just because it's a very large bet, that it has to be a bluff is going to lose you money longterm. Make sure you analize the player before making this decicion.

Agreed. Most bad players don't have the sense to make callable bets on the river with very strong hands, they're just thinking "wow, this hand is good, I'm going to bet really big." Against a bad player, consider folding to a large bet on the river, against a good player, consider calling because he's likely trying to limit your pot odds.

A very good player may even anticipate how you'd interpret a large bet on the river, and use it to represent a bluff, but this is probably rare. I saw a hand between Ted Forrest and Daniel Negreanu where I think this was exactly what Daniel was doing. Ted raised with A-K offsuit, and Daniel called with 5-6 of hearts, and the flop came 10, 10, J with two hearts. Ted Forrest bet and Daniel called. The turn was some blank card, Ted checked and Daniel checked. The river was a 5, Ted checked and Daniel made an over-sized bet. Ted thought for a while and called, and then said "that was the only card I was worried about," when Daniel showed him his pair of 5's.

I've noticed that Daniel Negreanu is very good at putting players on hands, and was probably able to figure out that Ted had A-K in this situation, and that he may be able to induce a call from this hand if he overbet the river, since Ted may interpret an overbet as a missed flush, when in fact he had actually made a pair of 5's. Pretty interesting hand.

[Borax]

I like this forum very much for these discussions, because I learn something almost every time. Interesting that opinions are different too.
Thank you for all comments. Just to continue the subject a bit, here is how I played a similar hand yesterday with this discussion on my mind:

0.25/0.5$ NL 10 players

Dealt to Borax in MP2

------------------
OpeningBetRound
------------------
SB : Posts small blind 0.25
BB : Posts big blind 0.50
UTG : Calls for 0.50
UTG+1 : Folds
UTG+2 : Folds
MP1 : Raises for 2.00
Borax : Calls for 2.00
MP3 : Folds
CO : Folds
Button : Folds
SB : Folds
BB : Folds
UTG : Calls for 1.50
------------------
Flop

------------------
UTG : Checks
MP1 : Bets 1.50
Borax : Raises for 15.00
UTG : Calls for 15.00
MP1 : Folds
------------------
Turn

------------------
UTG : Checks
Borax : Went all-in 37.60
UTG : Went all-in 34.70
Borax : Receives returned betting money 2.90
------------------
River

------------------
Showdown
------------------
UTG
- - No Pair - J high
Borax
- One Pair Q's

------------------
Result
------------------
UTG Showed Cards
Borax Showed Cards (Winning) 104.65
------------------

[SteveO]

First hand was scary due to the fact that you had 2 opponents calling your bets all the way. I might push the turn against only one opponent but you gotta figure the overcaller has a great hand (or not), but better to err on the side of caution.

It was weak to check the river when the scary flush card came. Next time make a defensive bet of like $10 into that pot on the river. It protects you against the bluff. Unless the other guy has the nuts, he will just flat call and go to showdown. If he comes over the top, its an easy fold. In that case, the river bet would have probably folded him.

[Grand_MasterB]

for the first hand... many times when you are leading at a pot then a scare card comes...if you check and they go all-in its a bluff about 75% in my experience, especially if it is alot of money. Usually when someone makes his draw at the end they will bet for value (maybe around $25 here) to get you to deposit a little more. That all in in those situations always looks a little fishy to me.

if you werent playin with half your roll i guarentee you could call this every time and coem out with a positive play after a couple of these

[drmcboy]

Bet more on the turn (first hand), on the turn I'm thinking one guy has TP, other on draw, and you do not want to give either a cheap card.

[jmontis]

think of it as a live game, if the guy hit his flush, would he shout 'ALL IN!!' when the spade hit? no he'd value bet it so you'd cry call.

That first one is tricky though, turn all-in would have been the best play.

[jmontis]

I don't know, difficult situation. This is how a lot of fish play hands like sets or two pair. They slow-play all the way to the river and then suddenly bet big, so he could very easily have you beaten.

i agree. Ignoring over-callers can cost you sometimes, so I would have not bet the river, but it doesn't mean i'd fold the queens...

[Zangief]

I like this forum very much for these discussions, because I learn something almost every time. Interesting that opinions are different too.
Thank you for all comments. Just to continue the subject a bit, here is how I played a similar hand yesterday with this discussion on my mind:

0.25/0.5$ NL 10 players

Dealt to Borax in MP2

------------------
OpeningBetRound
------------------
SB : Posts small blind 0.25
BB : Posts big blind 0.50
UTG : Calls for 0.50
UTG+1 : Folds
UTG+2 : Folds
MP1 : Raises for 2.00
Borax : Calls for 2.00
MP3 : Folds
CO : Folds
Button : Folds
SB : Folds
BB : Folds
UTG : Calls for 1.50
------------------
Flop

------------------
UTG : Checks
MP1 : Bets 1.50
Borax : Raises for 15.00
UTG : Calls for 15.00
MP1 : Folds
------------------
Turn

------------------
UTG : Checks
Borax : Went all-in 37.60
UTG : Went all-in 34.70
Borax : Receives returned betting money 2.90
------------------
River

------------------
Showdown
------------------
UTG
- - No Pair - J high
Borax
- One Pair Q's

------------------
Result
------------------
UTG Showed Cards
Borax Showed Cards (Winning) 104.65
------------------

I would have reraised preflop to probably $5.

Given that you didn't reraise preflop, I think you raised too much on the flop. There's $8.25 in the pot when the action gets to you. I wouldn't raise it to any more than $9.75 to go. Otherwise, you're just committing yourself to pay off any 2 pair or set.

UTG calling your $15 is horrendous. You should put this UTG player on your buddy list. He seems awful.

I'm not sure if I would push on the turn, either. The 4 completed a straight if UTG had 75. I guess you don't have much of a choice, since the pot is already so big.

[ChezJ]

learning from your mistakes is extremely +EV. good job on hand 2, it made up for your loss on hand 1! you had to push on the turn to get rid of not only the flush draws but the overcard draws. even if the flush hit, you would have made the right decision.

ChezJ

[Zangief]

Yes, sorry, sometimes I am too critical.

Hand 2 showed much improvement. Nice job, glad to see you're listening to these knowledgable FTR guys.

[Borax]

No need to apologise Zangief
I am too passive preflop in general (PF 4.5%) and I am not used to reraising preflop with QQ. I will do it sometimes, but have to know the table quite well. Also your point on how much to bet on the flop is interesting. I bet that much to be sure to fold at least one player, but I guess 10$ would have had the same effect. The push on the turn I think was correct, but it also included my gutfeeling on the oponent in the given situation.

I could use some advice on what hands to reraise with preflop The UTG player is well placed on my list

[JeffreyGB]

AA/KK/QQ/AKs are all good candidates. Beyond that it depends on table dynamics for me.

[JeffreyGB]

AA/KK/QQ/AKs are all good candidates. Beyond that it depends on table dynamics for me.