Pot Odds - Play of the hand

[elemmons]

I have a question for everyone. I've recently started playing for money in the .50/$1.00 limit games on Partypoker. I have a question about how to use pot odds in such a game.

Here is my dilemma. As I understand it, using percentages, if the pot is say $5.00, and I am drawing to a hand that has 8 outs, my chance of getting my draw on the turn are (8 * 2) + 2 = 18% approximately. 18% of the $5.00 pot is $.90. If I need to put in $1.00 to call, my pot odds are 20%, and so I don't make the call.

It seems like in the .50/$1.00 games that there is almost never a time when the draw to the turn comes out being worth it. Same for the river. The small pots seem to make the draws too expensive. I'm thinking that going to no limit, or to higher limit games will help, because the pots will get larger, so the odds will be better.

Another question while I'm at it. I know about the concept of implied odds, but I'd like a little clarification. Do you make the draw decisions for the turn and the river entirely separately usually? I mean, you figure the pot odds at that point, and see if it's worth the price. Or, using the implied odds concept, when you are considering the draw to the turn, do you call more often at the turn because of the possible payoff when further betting after the turn increases the pot size?

I hope I'm making sense, I'm pretty new at this .

Any help of comments will be appreciated.

[Fnord]

Here is my dilemma. As I understand it, using percentages, if the pot is say $5.00, and I am drawing to a hand that has 8 outs, my chance of getting my draw on the turn are (8 * 2) + 2 = 18% approximately. 18% of the $5.00 pot is $.90. If I need to put in $1.00 to call, my pot odds are 20%, and so I don't make the call.

No, because future action to come (implied pot odds) makes the call profitable.

However, it's still more complicated than that:

o Consider how "clean" your out are. Will your gutshot put a flush on the board?

o Consider how strong your outs are. Straight/flush/boat outs are much more valuable than overcard outs.

o Consider the chances of hitting your hand and still losing.

o Consider ALL your outs. Will the board pairing potentially conterfeight (spelling) someone else's 2 pair? Back door flush (+1.5 outs)? Backdoor straight (+1 out)? Gutshot with a chance to improve to open ended?

Once you learn to throw in those kind of factors, the math gets fuzzier and becomes less about precise math, but more about feel. Often if a call is close, you're not gaining/losing much either way you go.

[elemmons]

Thanks for the great comments.

I understand that the math can get fuzzy, and I think I get the concept that the factors you mention are very important.

I do have some concerns about the math getting too "fuzzy" .

I am not expecting pefection, but I think, for example that a factor like:

"Consider how "clean" your outs are"

Can actually be estimated with math. Ditto for how strong the outs are, and ditto for "the chances of hitting your hand and still losing".

Now, I'm not expecting perfection, but I think such questions can be informed quite well by math. I'm sure you know that very well, I'm just making a point about poker advice in general.

I think, as a beginner, sometimes my head is spinning with all of the advice that doesn't have some objective basis cited for it's validity.

I can hear the voice of experience in your remarks. You obviously have a lot of knowledge and experience. Thanks again for the excellent post.

[Fnord]

I do have some concerns about the math getting too "fuzzy" .

I am not expecting pefection, but I think, for example that a factor like:

"Consider how "clean" your outs are"

Can actually be estimated with math. Ditto for how strong the outs are, and ditto for "the chances of hitting your hand and still losing".

Now, I'm not expecting perfection, but I think such questions can be informed quite well by math. I'm sure you know that very well, I'm just making a point about poker advice in general.

Yes, you can get percise, but where it really comes down to "gut" is the range of your opponent's likely holdings, your fold equity, etc. Also, you can't spend 5 min working it all out in the heat of battle. So figure out roughly where you are, adjust and make a decision. If it's close and you make the wrong decision you're not costing yourself much and avoid slowing down the action or giving away information by stalling. Then go back later and revisit your decision (PokerTracker rules for this.)

[SteveO]

Quick math for rough estimate of pot odds:

Post-flop with 2 cards to come: # of outs * 4 = estimated pot odds.

On the turn with 1 card to come: # or outs * 2 = estimated pot odds.

You said you were thinking about going to NL because the pots are bigger. That will not generally be the case. Blinds are still $.25/50 and pots don't get too big because if you play correctly you will crush everyones pot odds or they will ruin yours. You will not play many drawing hands in NL unless you are at a very weak table where everyone limps and lets you see cheap flops AND plays week on the flop by letting you have correct pot odds to see more cards.

You need to totally adjust your limit game to move to NL.