[5NL] 99...3bet pot

[Cobra_1878]

Villain is 23/18/14 over 175 hands. CB 75%, CB 100% in 3bet pots, 5/5.

PokerStars - $0.05 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

Hero (UTG): $5.09
MP: $5.30
CO: $3.80
BTN: $3.32
SB: $10.69
BB: $7.64

SB posts SB $0.02, BB posts BB $0.05

Pre Flop: (pot: $0.07) Hero has 9 9

Hero raises to $0.20, fold, fold, fold, SB raises to $0.60, fold, Hero calls $0.40

Flop: ($1.25, 2 players) 5 T 7
SB bets $0.60, Hero calls $0.60

Turn: ($2.45, 2 players) J
SB checks, Hero checks

River: ($2.45, 2 players) T
SB bets $1.20, Hero ???

[abelardx]

Hero is utg so villain's 3bet is for value. You're crushed by that range. So you could just fold preflop.

If you call you're set mining, which is barely acceptable given the effective stack. If set mining, you missed, so fold the flop.

As played, call the river. You're often beat I think but you only need to be good 25% of the time to break even. If he stabs with AK on the river, which is reasonable since he's aggressive, and we give him a pessimistic-for-us range of AK and TT+, then you're good about one third of the time, making the call +ev.

[kickass]

We has position and life isn't so difficult with our hand so I dont mind the call pre. I prolly call the river his line doesn't really make a whole lot of sense with an overpair and how much 10x can he have. Although he can has jx too meh stove a range do math that palaver.

[supa]

Meh, I probably fold to the 3bet unless he's been 3betting my raises frequently. Probably raise flop cuz there's a lot of turns we don't like. Calling river now.

[d0zer]

It's pretty hard to have stats of 23/18 with a 14% 3bet.

[d0zer]

Probably raise flop cuz there's a lot of turns we don't like. Calling river now.

are you raising for value or to "find out where you're at" or to bluff?

[Cobra_1878]

It's pretty hard to have stats of 23/18 with a 14% 3bet.

Not sure what that's supposed to mean...

[d0zer]

Not sure what that's supposed to mean...

You can take it at face value.

Regardless, it's pretty impossible to advise you what to do on this river without knowing specifically how this villain plays postflop, and I'm assuming you don't know either else you wouldn't have posted this hand so you can call and take a note. It looks kind of like a value bet regs might make with a hand like TPNK or something like that here but I'm not sure.

[abelardx]

I thought the third number was aggression factor. Cobra, is it AF or 3bet?

[supa]

are you raising for value or to "find out where you're at" or to bluff?

All of the above. We can get value from hands we beat which is pretty much everything in his calling range. We can fold to a big reraise knowing that "where we are at" is pretty a pretty fucked up place. And we can fold out hands that have decent equity against us.

I never really got the cut and dry are you raising for value or for a bluff? We're playing vs a really wide range here and I don't think this is a bad spot to narrow it. Folding the flop now seems redic bad as does calling when a lot of turns are pretty scary. Mebbe this is backasswards thinking.

[Cobra_1878]

I thought the third number was aggression factor. Cobra, is it AF or 3bet?

Sorry, 3rd stat is always 3bet in my posts. I usually bracket it but got out of the habit.

[STILL_mkd]

Hero need to fold. It's too risk for calling in this situation.

[rpm]

don't mind folding pre as i'm not sure of if calling will be +EV and i don't think we're being exploited. river i'd probably fold. can't see him bringing too many bluffs back to life given the turn action, and he can still have some % of QQ+ in his range which got the fear and went into C/C mode on the turn. something about that sizing seems to weight his range towards perceived "thin" value hands more than bluffs too, but i could be wrong about that

[griffey24]

I think to call this pre you have to either:
A) be set hunting
B) have very good reads on his tendencies and how he plays

A) I don't think stacks are deep enough to set hunt here, I'd look for like 15x
B) If you don't know what to do here, then you probably don't have good enough reads on him to be calling this hand pre beyond set hunting

In general I'd say most ppl are more likely bluff KQ/AQ/AK on the turn than this bet/check/bet line.

[The Bean Counter]

Bet the turn imo.

As played, I'm tempted to raise the river but would probably end up folding against your typical 5nl reg. I don't believe we can profitably call in this spot given villains line and sizing.