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25NL - Can I turn 2 pair into a bluff on 4 straight river?
Villain is 22/18 TAG who doesn't like folding to 3bets or cbets. His 3bet fold is 43% and cbet fold is 20% after 200 hands. (In hindsight, this may indicate that he is pretty unbluffable generally.)
This 6max table has just become heads up and I have no indication that he has changed his game much. I have been stealing blinds for a few hands since HU.
I feel like his flop raising range is fairly weak since a lot of draws are possible and he can't really have AA/QQ/AQ. He probably even 3bets A7s some % of the time preflop and doesn't call Q7. I also feel like he rarely has Jx on the river, and will usually have some kind of 2 pair worse than AQ. The problem is, most of those beat me.
All I beat if I check back are the naked flush draws and QTss. I want to turn my hand into a bluff, but I'm not sure how well I rep a J either. I could certainly have AJ, and Jxss. Maybe even TJ, although turn sizing may persuade him otherwise. Also, he may decide that I would check back the river with AK which would make him more likely to call with the 2 pairs that beat me.
- Is this a potential bluff spot against a) more typical foldy TAG, and b) this guy?
- If you are firing, what size?
- Comments on turn sizing? - Reasoning at the time was that I felt he was often weak, wouldn't raise often, and would turn most of his hands face up by calling as well as allowing me a free showdown. Looking back, I'm not sure if we shouldn't make it more like $4.50-$5.00.
Poker Stars, $0.10/$0.25 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 2 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.
Hero (SB/BU): $27.45 (109.8 bb)
BB: $32.08 (128.3 bb)
Preflop: Hero is SB/BU with 7 K
Hero raises to $0.62, BB calls $0.37
Flop: ($1.24) 7 Q A (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $0.75, BB raises to $2.75, Hero calls $2
Turn: ($6.74) K (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $3.50, BB calls $3.50
River: ($13.74) T (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $???,
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