[5NL] QJs in SB...hand played badly or bad river card?

[Cobra_1878]

Villain was 31/24/7 through 403 hands. Fold to 3bet pre, 66%. 51% steal from LP, 50% steal from button. Cbet 85%

PokerStars - $0.05 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 4 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

UTG: $8.25
BTN: $5.30
SB: $5.00
Hero (BB): $5.00

SB posts SB $0.02, Hero posts BB $0.05

Pre Flop: (pot: $0.07) Hero has J Q

UTG calls $0.05, BTN raises to $0.30, fold, Hero calls $0.25, UTG calls $0.25

Flop: ($0.92, 3 players) J 6 Q
Hero checks, UTG checks, BTN bets $0.55, Hero calls $0.55, fold

Turn: ($2.02, 2 players) K
Hero checks, BTN checks

River: ($2.02, 2 players) T
Hero bets $1.30, BTN raises to $3.65, fold

BTN wins $4.43

Other than my bet on the river which I don't like at all, I don't think I played the hand too badly?

Should I have c/r the flop?
Should I have lead out on the turn?
Is hand played fine just hit the worst river card?

[Savy]

I like how you played flop. Donk turn and fold to a reraise though imo.

As played I think you should c/f river.

[Cobra_1878]

I like how you played flop. Donk turn and fold to a reraise though imo.

As played I think you should c/f river.

I'm pretty sure that's how I should have played it as well.

[daviddem]

raise/shove flop to 1.30 imo

as played I think the turn is fine (if you were planning to c/c). I don't think your equity vs his continuing range is enough to justify a lead. Say his continuing range is:
QQ-TT,66,AKs,ATs,K9s+,QTs+,JTs,T9s,AKo,ATo,K9o+,QTo+, JTo
and you have only 47.7% equity, not enough to justify a value bet. Even if you add AQ and AJ, you get just enough to break even after rake.

river c/c is an option if you think he has enough bluffs in his betting range. Otherwise c/f.

[Cobra_1878]

Why should I raise the flop? My hand is pretty good against his range and there aren't many, if any, turn cards I don't like.

He cbets 85%, so could be doing this with complete air, would I want to raise so he can fold all his air/marginal hands that he might fire again with on the turn? That doesn't make much sense.

On that turn card, I would have check raised btw.

[daviddem]

You raise the flop for value vs his pairs/overpairs, pair + draw, OESD etc. Lots of stuff to get value from. When you c/r the flop, you also have straight draws in your range, one pair + gutshot, some stone cold bluffs, so it's likely he will continue with a lot of his non air.

Yes maybe, maybe he will fire again ott. But he has position, he can take the free card if it pleases him. Or you have to donk the turn and you also fold his air.

FWIW I also raise a set here, I don't see why I'd play top two differently and I don't see a reason to slow play. You can even minraise if you want, if you want to make it look weaker/bluffy, but that is giving a good price to his draws.

Cards you don't like? Well for example the K that came on this turn. Aces. Tens. That's already 16 cards you shouldn't like too much.

So you don't want to raise the flop because you are afraid of folding his worse hands, but you want to c/r the turn?? To get value from what? Or is it as a bluff?

[Cobra_1878]

I want to c/r the turn because I feel I get an extra bet out of him as opposed to raising him on flop and pushing him out of pot.

I'm really not too worried about him having a GSSD and getting there with an A, K or T. So I'm not too scared of those cards. Plus, that's only a small part of villain's range. With an 85% cbet, he has a large percentage of air/marginal hands in his range, why would I want him to fold these?

Also, I would slow play a set in this spot as well.

[griffey24]

I like a flop c/r here. Cards that he would likely continue with a bluff on other boards are too coordinated to this flop so he might not bluff them (ie: K or an A).

As played, most of the time c/f river and balance by c/c rivers with some of your 9T and AJ's if you have that.

[daviddem]

I want to c/r the turn because I feel I get an extra bet out of him as opposed to raising him on flop and pushing him out of pot.

I'm really not too worried about him having a GSSD and getting there with an A, K or T. So I'm not too scared of those cards. Plus, that's only a small part of villain's range. With an 85% cbet, he has a large percentage of air/marginal hands in his range, why would I want him to fold these?

Also, I would slow play a set in this spot as well.

Looks like you felt wrong, because if there ever was a card he would barrel here with air it's an A or K. And maybe when you check the turn you get an extra bet, but raising it makes no sense (fold all worse hands, no better hand folds, etc). If you want to follow up on your logic, why not flat his bet and let him 3-barrel the river?

[Cobra_1878]

Looks like you felt wrong, because if there ever was a card he would barrel here with air it's an A or K. And maybe when you check the turn you get an extra bet, but raising it makes no sense (fold all worse hands, no better hand folds, etc). If you want to follow up on your logic, why not flat his bet and let him 3-barrel the river?

Yeah, hindsight is always 20/20.

Also, he doesn't have to be bluffing. He might check the K if he had something like AQ/AJ. The K is one possible card that could come on the turn, if it was a brick, and he had AQ/AJ/KQ he might bet again, although he wouldn't have had the chance to if I had raised him on flop and he folded.

Less likely to fire the river if he is bluffing, also less likely to bet for value with a marginal hand.

If I raise flop, does he not also "fold all worse hands, no better hand folds"?

[kickass]

no

[daviddem]

No he continues to a small flop raise with a ton of worse hands, starting with the AQ,KQ examples you gave. Not so ott where the board + a c/r are really scary for anything worse than your hand.

Donking smallish on the flop is also an option by the way, depending on how he reacts to that. Some players will almost always raise a donk bet, which they perceive as weak (which is often true).

[Cobra_1878]

No he continues to a small flop raise with a ton of worse hands, starting with the AQ,KQ examples you gave. Not so ott where the board ++ a c/r are really scary for anything worse than your hand.

Donking smallish on the flop is also an option by the way, depending on how he reacts to that. Some players will almost always raise a donk bet, which they perceive as weak (which is often true).

I obviously didn't know a K would come on the turn. Let's say turn was the 4h, do you think villain would fold AQ/KQ to a c/r?

Also, let's not forget villain had a 50% steal from button. I think villain is being given too much credit for having a hand. 50% steal from button plus 85% cbet, there's a lot of air in that range.

[daviddem]

As you said yourself, if you call this flop, there are not many good cards he can barrel ott. In other words: most cards will be blanks which won't improve his equity or his fold equity, which means that most of the time there will not be much reason for you to fold the turn if you called the flop. As griffin said, even A's or K's are not so good to barrel because they often improve your hand. Try to play the hand in reverse, and imagine you are villain with air. You cbet and you get called. Which turn card would you barrel?

Yes of course his range is wide and it will be hard to get a lot value from it, more so oop and yes he will fold to the flop raise or donk sometimes, but that's the name of the game: when you bet or raise for value, sometimes they fold, that's not a reason for not betting. And in this case, you would most likely not make much money out of what he would fold otf anyway. Also you give him free cards to improve and you have reverse implied odds. Top two is far from invulnerable.

I obviously didn't know a K would come on the turn. Let's say turn was the 4h, do you think villain would fold AQ/KQ to a c/r?

He is far more likely to fold AQ or KQ to a turn c/r than a flop c/r, even if the turn is 4h. Rule of thumb: turn bets or raises are (or look) MUCH stronger than flop bets or raises.

[rpm]

^ some good points in there. i'd C/R flop planning to lead almost any turn card. as played i would lead the turn for value. checking doesn't actually get villain to bluff much at all so i think making sure we get a street of value > giving him the chance to bet again with air. i think your river lead is spewy too because nothing worse will call.

[Pascal]

If I raise flop, does he not also "fold all worse hands, no better hand folds"?

No, he doesn't fold any queen, some strong jacks (especially with redraw possibilities like Jxdd or JT), T9, KT, etc.

[griffey24]

If I raise flop, does he not also "fold all worse hands, no better hand folds"?

Ofcourse all better hands continue, and some worse hands fold.

But the likely hands that will double barrel on this particular board are AQ+, 9T, KT and all of those hands will continue to your c/r.

A good portion of this above range will also bet flop and then check back turn.