2nl 6m AJ 2 pairs river spot

[daviddem]

Villain is 17/16 2AF, 22% Agg. Freq, 23% steal, 7% 3b, 50% cbet (3/6) over 64 hands.

SB ($6.38)
Hero (BB) ($2)
UTG ($2.29)
MP ($5.86)
CO ($6.62)
Button ($5)

Preflop: Hero is BB with A, J
3 folds, Button bets $0.08, 1 fold, Hero calls $0.06

Flop: ($0.17) K, J, 3 (2 players)
Hero checks, Button checks

Turn: ($0.17) A (2 players)
Hero bets $0.12, Button calls $0.12

River: ($0.41) 5 (2 players)
Hero bets $0.40, Button raises to $1.40

Comments on river sizing? What do you think his range is when he raises the river?

[HarryHatless]

River bet looks about the right size to me. It should extract maximum value from a lot of worse (Ax) hands that he might otherwise check behind.

No c-bet on the flop makes me think that villain has completely whiffed and that means we can probably narrow his river range quite a bit. I would put him on a lot of air, some Ax type hands that he's turning into a bluff, A5 that villain thinks he's value betting and QT that managed to hit its gut-shot on the turn. Think 55 is also a possibility but would normally expect him to have folded that on the turn.

[dranger7070]

He's stealing from the BTN, so like, random Kx that made 2pr, A3, A5, QT, and possibly 55 sometimes.

Other than that just some random spazz stuff I guess? I don't think he can expect us to fold too often given our sizing but meh, its 4nl so who knows. Never folding of course.

[rong]

Easy call. I'd play it pretty similar. Range is all over the place including buffs, sets, 2p, straight, Ax.

[postiga]

I don´t know if i could fold here but tehre are some hands that crush AJ and the way that he follows could represent well it...

[bigspenda73]

anyone want to c/r turn?

never folding river, line makes zero sense so if he got tricky good for him

River range is tough to come up with but I think even if we took out all pure bluffs and just went with like slowplayed monsters + A5/J5hh that we might still have enough equity getting 2.2:1 on a call, but I don't have pokerstove on me so someone else would have to run it.

What's our equity vs a range of AJ, A5, Jh5h, KK, JJ, 33, 2h4h?

[daviddem]

^^ we have 47.3% against this range. Kinda doubtful a 17/16 raises Jh5h and 2h4h pre though, but it doesn't change the results much if you remove these combos.

And why do you not have QT in your range? If you add QT we only have 25%.

c/r turn seems like a good option, but only if he bets imo. If it checks through it's pretty bad.

Other than QT, AJ and slow played sets make the most sense, but I am not sure if he would raise these OTT given flush draw and possible gutshot on the board.

[bigspenda73]

2h4h would also cbet a high % of time. So take it out and replace it with QT which would cbet some % of time. This probably gives us just enough equity to call. So against a pure value (and slowplayed monster) range we are almost getting the right price, throw in just a few bluffs or general weirdness and it's an easy call. These are spots where PokerStove makes a marginally difficult decision a simple one. However, you have to put in the time away from the tables to realize these things.

As for the turn c/r, it's about maximizing value from Ax hands as well as other hands that aren't calling a turn bet, whether that's delayed cbets, bluffs, Jx/QQ, even bad Kx hands, etc... that will all just give up if we lead turn.

If we bet turn, bet river we'll get value from Ax but if we c/r turn we'll get that same value and potentially a lot more on the river. The question is how often is your random $2NL opponent bet/folding Ax on the turn here? Probably a ridiculously low % of the time.

[Pelion]

We only need to be good here 33ish% of the time to call.

In order of how likely I think he is to actually play like this:

1) AJ/A5/A3/QT (QT probably raises turn some % of the time) - 43% equity
2) +KK/JJ/33/KJ - 44% equity
3) +AA/AK/55 (very unlikely imo) - 36% equity
4) + random spew/bluffs/2NL weirdness (40+% equity?)

I can't find a range that we would want to fold against.

I think river sizing is ok given that there are no more betting rounds, so he is fairly likely to call a PSB with TPWK.