Flopped hard 3 way 1st level, max EV line?

[Luco]

6th hand of a SnG:
PokerStars - $6.37+$0.63|10/20 NL - Holdem - 9 players

UTG+1: 1,500.00
MP: 1,520.00
MP+1: 1,430.00
LP: 1,470.00
CO: 1,650.00
Hero (BTN): 1,450.00
SB: 1,480.00
BB: 1,500.00
UTG: 1,500.00

SB posts SB 10.00, BB posts BB 20.00

Pre Flop: (30.00) Hero has Q A

fold, fold, MP raises to 40.00, MP+1 calls 40.00, fold, fold, Hero raises to 120.00, fold, fold, MP calls 80.00, MP+1 calls 80.00

Flop: (390.00, 3 players) A A K
MP checks, MP+1 checks, Hero checks...

MP+1: minraised the last 3 hands, fishy betting line IP on the one hand that saw the flop, possibly a bit aggro.
MP: raised 3x on button, got blinds. Only raised 2x this hand.
My image: Called a minraise from BB, c/f flop vs this fish two hands ago.

MP1’s range is wider than MP’s due to pot odds on overcall and fishiness. Lots of PPs, some SCs, K8s+ QTs+ KJo+... Ax or monsters are less likely due to preflop action.

Thoughts:

I wrote a few posts ago about getting villain's stack in the middle, not mine.

Firstly, should I have squeezed a little bigger pre? I wanted this fish HU IP.

I think I could have put out 160ish on this flop but it hits my perceived range so hard (and misses theirs) that only Kx is continuing and it’s drawing dead anyway. MP1 may continue with QJ/QT or mid PP for a street, if he has the last Ace we’re stacking off regardless.

I checked the flop with the intention of raising the fish if he leads the turn, smallish to induce a shove. Wanted to give them both a chance to catch a pair or draw to keep them interested, there isn’t a single turn card that bothers me and any decent turn bet leaves pot for river, even with 1 caller.

Line check, what’s most +EV and have I missed anything with my thinking? The occasional turned set and rivered flush vs potential extra chips?

[agnesamurphy]

I find nothing wrong with your line of thinking.

It would be unfortunate if one of the villains had AK here. It's not unheard of for them to call a raise/3-bet with it.

[chardrian]

either flat the raise pre or make your 3 bet bigger to get it heads-up.

there's absolutely no reason to check that flop.

[fjuanl]

If you check you are hoping they will turn a made hand that is worse than yours and call down. That can't really happen when the flop is like this. Its not like someone with J9s is going to call turn and river if they hit their J. Focus on getting the most value from Ax and Kx and bet flop

[Luco]

either flat the raise pre or make your 3 bet bigger to get it heads-up.

there's absolutely no reason to check that flop.

Yeah I flagged this one because it was a deviation from my usual play. You could say...



...I rarely, if ever, check this flop.

[drmcboy]

checking AA2 makes more sense, but I don't really think it matters. Hard to imagine ever getting 3 streets from Kx, and you must gain some EV from adding bluffs to the mix OTT. plus you would hate for someone to fold JT.

[Luco]

Well I took this line so I'm honour bound to defend it...

...Focus on getting the most value from Ax and Kx and bet flop

I agree that most of the value in this hand comes from Kx hands or the last Ace. Fish is almost certainly calling a flop bet with Kx, most likely action c/c c/c c/f river or c/c c/f turn, unless I bet small.

By checking back here:

+EV: villains improve, call turn where they wouldn't have called flop, possible turn bluffs from fish
-EV: they overtake you (PP becomes FH, backdoor flushes, QJ/QT hit straights), some hands would have called a flop bet (missed value).

If we assume for simplicity the effect of these combined is EV neutral, it leaves us asking: which line gets the most out of Kx, Ax vs this fish?

Can turn + river bets >>> flop, turn & river bets? If I check back flop can I ever get this guy's stack in the middle?

checking AA2 makes more sense, but I don't really think it matters. Hard to imagine ever getting 3 streets from Kx, and you must gain some EV from adding bluffs to the mix OTT. plus you would hate for someone to fold JT.

AA2 makes more sense against better opponents sure. I wasn't trying to get three streets with Kx, I was hoping to make a smallish turn raise and see if fishy comes over the top. At the very least Kx should call the turn raise because it looks bluffy (my range at this point would be nuts & bluffs) and hopefully call something on river too.

Hoping for another broadway or at least a FD on turn, worst case scenario it checks to me again and I have to bet out strong.

Recent session reviews have highlighted I may be overly aggressive when I hit a hand and I felt this was a safe spot to try something different. I want villain's chips in the middle, not mine.