Should I Have Called w/10s?

[agnesamurphy]

Lock Poker NLH 9-max $7 + $.70 - 50/100 blinds - 7 players

SB - 2,425
BB (Hero) - 1,467
UTG - 2,015
MP - 1,685
HJ - 2,433
CO - 1,505
BTN - 1,970

Dealt to Hero - 1010

fold, MP raises to 350, 4 folds, Hero is all-in, MP calls

MP shows - KK

Should I have just called OOP w/the 10s?

I thought I shove might get the villain to fold. I also decided against a call b/c there would have been a lot of cards OOF that I wouldn't want to see, putting me in a tough spot. Is my reasoning wrong or did I just get unlucky?

[Fielmann]

What's the pay-out structure? Standard 50-30-20?
What do you think villain's opening range is? Does he always raise 3.5x? Do you have any information about him at all?
What do you think his calling range is?

[Luco]

What Fielmann said, reads are important.

I think raising or jamming is the best move here. Incidentally we don't need to see what the villain had - as we say around here, don't post results! Just because he had KK this time doesn't mean he always has it here

[Pascal]

Jam is good, anyone who opens 3.5x is awful and TT is a strong hand with 15bb

[postiga]

it depends the dynamics of the player and the table but ifo you shove here you are running or dominated. Only call is out of question i guess, hove or fold and may be fold is better

[sam1FTR]

I feel like you can't call. It either has to be an all in or a fold. If your all in gets called, you are almost certainly dominated, or at least a coin flip against AQ/AK. I guess you are jamming and hoping for a fold.

Calling with tens would be disastrous. If an overcard comes up on the flop you will have no idea if you are behind or not

[Tom1559]

Not a lot of information but you are sitting with 15 BB so for that reason I would push with 10's

[Pascal]

I feel like you can't call. It either has to be an all in or a fold. If your all in gets called, you are almost certainly dominated, or at least a coin flip against AQ/AK. I guess you are jamming and hoping for a fold.

Calling with tens would be disastrous. If an overcard comes up on the flop you will have no idea if you are behind or not

Do you have Pokerstove?

[agnesamurphy]

Do you have Pokerstove?

No, although I should. Should have done that sooner.

What's the pay-out structure? Standard 50-30-20?
What do you think villain's opening range is? Does he always raise 3.5x? Do you have any information about him at all?
What do you think his calling range is?

Payout structure is the standard 50-30-20.

Nothing out of the ordinary sticks out from memory, since I don't have a HUD yet (Lock Poker gives them for free once you hit VIP, whatever that means). Since nothing sticks out, I think it would be safe to say that the Villain is tighter and more sensible than most. I don't think he always raised 3.5x, as I want to say the Villain typically min-raised.

Excellent question on calling range. I admit I really don't know. Leak in my game, I have found.

Incidentally we don't need to see what the villain had - as we say around here, don't post results! Just because he had KK this time doesn't mean he always has it here

Duly noted.

[Pascal]

First step is to get Pokerstove.

Then put in the range which you think he raises to 350 then calls. You can click Player 1 and then click the individual hands if its easier.

For player two, put in "TcTh" without quotes

Simulate it and copy and paste the results in here.

[agnesamurphy]

I gave Villain a range and then changed it until I was just barely ahead of 50% equity, and here's Villain's range:
{ 88+,ATs+,KTs+,QJs,AJo+ }

How do I use this info?

[Fielmann]

I gave Villain a range and then changed it until I was just barely ahead of 50% equity, and here's Villain's range:
{ 88+,ATs+,KTs+,QJs,AJo+ }

How do I use this info?

Not for much, it's not a realistic range for anything. What actually needs to be done is simply:

1. to come up with a range he calls the all-in with (the original range, without any adjustments) and find its equity against TT with the help of Pokerstove,
2. to come up with a range he makes his first raise with.

Then we can start the math

[Pascal]

You start with the range then look at equity, not the other way round

[agnesamurphy]

Not for much, it's not a realistic range for anything. What actually needs to be done is simply:

1. to come up with a range he calls the all-in with (the original range, without any adjustments) and find its equity against TT with the help of Pokerstove,
2. to come up with a range he makes his first raise with.

Then we can start the math

1. Call an all-in range - TT+,AQs+,AQo+ - 40%
2. 3.5x range from MP - 77+,ATs+,KTs+,QJs,AJo+,KJo+,QJo - 53%

Yeah, don't mind the first range I posted. I told my fiance that I got Equilab and that I was going to answer Pascal's question, and then he proceeded to show me how to use it and created that range to show what the Villain's range needed to be in order for my shove to be a good shove.

Then he posted it, and then was like, "Oh, that didn't answer Pascal's question."

[Fielmann]

1. Call an all-in range - TT+,AQs+,AQo+ - 40%
2. 3.5x range from MP - 77+,ATs+,KTs+,QJs,AJo+,KJo+,QJo - 53%

Nice.

the first range I posted [---][that was created] to show what the Villain's range needed to be in order for my shove to be a good shove.

Note that you don't need a 50+% equity against his range for the shove to be good, because
1) you also have fold equity
2) you risk less (just the raise) than you stand to win (his call + current pot).

The expected chip value of a shove consists of three components (A + B - C):
A = (what you win when he folds)*(probability he'll fold)
B = (what you win when he calls and you win)*(probability he won't fold)*(probability you win)
C = (what you lose when he calls and you lose)*(probability he won't fold)*(probability you lose)

When he folds, you win current pot, which is 500.
When he calls and you win you win his call (1017) + current pot (500) for a total of 1517.
When he calls and you lose you lose your raise, which is 1367.

His raising 11.5% and calling 4.7% of all hands, so probability he'll fold is (11.5 - 4.7)/11.5 = 59%. Hence, probability he won't fold is 100% - 59% = 41%

The expected chip value of your shove = 500*0.59 + 1517*0.41*0.4 - 1367*0.41*0.6 = 295 + 249 - 336 = 208

The expected value of a fold would be 0, so shove is vastly better.

[Luco]

So the lesson from this exercise is... against all but the very nittiest of players TT will always be good for a shove over. Right?