Flop Equity - 99 vs UTG PFR and cBet

[DoubleJ]

OK, so this isn't a real hand; Work with me here

I'm not interested in Hero's actions; i just wanna get ur thoughts on Villain's range(s) PF and OTF, and then our subsequent Equity OTF.

$1/$2 No Limit Holdem
6 Players

Stacks:
UTG ($200) 100bb - VPIP:19, PFR:15, 3B:6.7, AF:2.8
Hero (UTG+1) ($200) 100bb
CO ($200) 100bb
BTN ($200) 100bb
SB ($200) 100bb
BB ($200) 100bb

Pre-Flop: ($3, 6 players) Hero is UTG+1
UTG raises to $6, Hero calls $6, 4 folds

Flop: ($15, 2 players)
UTG bets $7.50

I thank you

[MadMojoMonkey]

I'm going to assume positional awareness at 200NL, so something like 7% UTG:
PRE { 88+,ATs+,KJs+,QJs,AQo+ }

I'd C-bet this range on 95% of flops, def a flop like this one. There are different styles of flop play that are equally effective when the overall strategy supports it. it's hard to say what Villain's C-betting range is on this flop without some more info.

On this board, 88 are about as strong as QQ. While QJs (except hearts, obv.) is the only hand that misses this flop harder than 88, even it has a GSSD, so why not C-bet?

[DoubleJ]

Dankeschoen, Herr Moj'

Anyone else wanna chip in?

[daven]

villain seems like TAG-nit 200nl 6-max reg.
UTG pfr range something like 88+/AJs+/AQo+/KQs

effect on range when villain cbets that size on that board varies a whole heap from player to player. I mean, some players will cbet this style of board 100% of the time.

Anyway, your equity on this flop is pretty low. The only thing you're ahead of from 88+/AJs+/AQo+/KQs is 88... You don't even have backdoor hearts. So, i guess you have between zero-ish (requiring running quads) and 8-ish % (turned or rivered sets) equity.


where are you going with this?

[WeldPhaser]

would utg's sizing be considered bad here? given wetness

[DoubleJ]

where are you going with this?

I’ve started using Ace Poker Drills Equity Trainer (by the same people who developed LeakBuster, so I assume it's kosher), to practice putting Villains on a goddamn range.

It's a good idea - basically a Replayer type interface that randomly(?) generates a hand that you can step through and evaluate your equity vs. villain in a repetetive manner, with no money at stake and no game clock, and then logs/tracks your results

However, I’m getting some confusing results back, and it seems to be because the Ranges that APD is assigning for Villain are wildly different to the ones I’m coming up with, and i can't see why.

In the example i posted ITT, APD assigns the following range {22+,A2s+,QTs+,J9s+,T8s+,97s+,86s+,76s,65s,54s,43s ,A9o+,QTo+,JTo} for Villain OTF, and gives me around 44% equity vs. this.

Now that’s about a 21% range. A 19/15 Tag opening 21% from UTG? Shorely shome mishtake?

My analysis tallies w/ yours and MMM's (thanks guys), so imma get back to the developers and get their view on this.

[WeldPhaser]

Nice practice drills anyway J, equilab has an equity trainer as well . Not quite sure how in-depth it gets though.

surprising that it would be so whacked out

[supa]

I noticed Ace's equity was off a good amount of the time when I was using it. I stopped using it.

[DoubleJ]

I noticed Ace's equity was off a good amount of the time when I was using it. I stopped using it.

what did u start using instead?

[DoubleJ]

equilab has an equity trainer as well . Not quite sure how in-depth it gets though

it does, but it just does static hand-versus-pre-defined-villain-range on a given flop.

which is massively useful, don't get me wrong, but i was looking for something to help me with the process of working out Villain's range, and then the equity bit

i'll post any updates here, if people are interested