10NL AA on KKx flop

[MadMojoMonkey]

Villain raised 4x in a 1 limp pot and min 4-bet, called 5-bet shove w/ AA a couple of orbits back to pick up $11.00. Has folded the last 20-ish hands.

PRE: I gots AA, raising for value. Nitty villain calls my 4x raise from HJ...
{ QQ-88,AQs-ATs,KTs+,QJs,AQo-AJo }

OTF: I'm calling 1 street to see what's up here. I have an overpair, and he doesn't have to have a K here when I show weakness. I think Villain bets the entire range to steal w/ equity.

OTT: ch/ch, huh? So I think he was stealing on the flop and would def. bet w/ 99 or Kx.
{ QQ-TT,88,AQs-ATs,QJs,AQo-AJo }

OTR: Total blank and I think there is a good chance I'm ahead here, so I bet out to get value from his PP's and maybe AQ if he thinks I'm FOS.

Bovada - $0.10 NLHE - 7 players

UTG: $3.01
Hero UTG+1: $16.12
HJ: $24.28
CO: $5.59
BTN: $13.15
SB: $14.30
BB: $9.41

SB posts SB $0.05, BB posts BB $0.10

Pre Flop: (pot: $0.15) Hero has A A

fold, Hero raises to $0.40, HJ calls $0.40, 4 folds

Flop: ($0.95, 2 players) K 3 K
Hero checks, HJ bets $0.70, Hero calls $0.70

Turn: ($2.35, 2 players) 9
Hero checks, HJ checks

River: ($2.35, 2 players) 2
Hero bets $1.00, HJ raises to $3.00, Hero...

Crap! Now it's def 99 or Kx, right?

EDIT to correct Villain's seat.

[kickass]

Bet the flop. What Are villains stats those ranges don't seem very nitty to me!
And yr hh is fucked you are sitting in villains seat

[supa]

When he checks the turn after being called on the flop he either doesn't have a K or is moron. He fires all of his air on the river along with some FHs. His range should include 22- whatever cuz stacks are great for setmining.

It's pretty close. I think I call.

[daven]

bet flop
fold river as played

[seven-deuce]

I'm folding. I wouldn't remove Kx 99 from his range on the turn, i mean he's checking Kx 99 with some frequency surely, there's no threat from flushes/straight if he has 99 and Kx only straightdraw is gutshot with JT not in your UTG range i would imagine so he's sitting pretty on the turn.

River dont mind going for value from QQ JJ TT possibly 88 77 don't think he'd be calling much lighter than that but i think if you get called you have the best hand >50% of the time so it's a value bet imo.

But instead of calling he raises, i don't think he's turning a hand with moderate showdown value into a bluff on the river here often enough (if ever) to warrant a call. I mean you opened UTG and check called flop so he knows you got something, unless he's a super hand reader and feels he can blow you off a hand with decent showdown value that can't stand much action and is willing to make that play instead of just calling as there's a chance you may have a king yourself AK check calling the flop for example, i think the sizing is for value for bluffs i think he goes bigger or make's a weird sized bet not exactly $3.

Imo he flat calls all PP's QQ and below that haven't housed on the river. And he rarely turns them into bluffs without seeing showdowns where he's tryed similar lines on the river with hands with showdown value i'm assuming he doesn't have that play in his aresenal.

[MadMojoMonkey]

What Are villains stats

I don't have any tracking software, as I'm on Bovada w/ anonymous players. Stats are I've seen him play a single hand out of the last 3 orbits before this.

Those ranges don't seem very nitty to me!

Well, what ranges would you give Villain based on the above info?
(also: I know what he actually had by now and I assure you it was in my assessment of Villain's pre-flop range.)

And yr hh is fucked you are sitting in villains seat

I gotta do this all manually. There's no software I know of that reads Bovada HH's and converts them, so I'm doing it all myself. Also, I'm prone to mistakes since the interface is rudimentary at best on Bovada. The pot totals may be off from time to time, too... so I apologize in advance.
...
Also, your mom's sitting in Villain's seat.

[kickass]

in 3 orbits youve seen him play only AA and you put KTs and AJo in villains calling range in MP vs EP. Id expect his unimaginative ranges to be heavily weighted towards pps so id be betting the flop for super value as id wouldnt expect him to fold many pairs on this board the only real K id expect is KQs and mebbe AK which we block.
i think the river is prolly a fold but i really dont like folding when weve played a hand this strong in such a weak fashion.

[The Bean Counter]

Not folding given how weakly hero has played this hand - the weak river lead combined with previous 2 streets means the river is just asking to be raised. You're still behind often, but not enough to justify folding imo.

Prefer a b/f on every street fwiw.

[MadMojoMonkey]

It's hard for me to comment on my assessment of his range now that I know what he had, and revisionist history, etc.

In the hand, I can honestly say that when I checked the flop it was because there seemed like a lot of K's in his range (to me, at that moment) and that I would get more of his stack when he checks behind because I'm either WA or WB. When he bets, I realize that I got less information than if I had bet and now I'm stuck playing OOP on a paired board. Rookie mistake.

Also, given the fact that I can see what all villains held a couple of days after I've played them, I know that I'm about 85%+ on correctly folding big hands when I'm beat. A well-timed bluff against me is a rare thing... Clearly it happens (there are some creative villains), but with that kind of number, I can safely assume that any real aggression is not a bluff, w/o a specific read on Villain, obv.

Agree that b/f is a better line.

[cleanup.that]

Weird line from villain. KTs+ can be in his range. His thought process might be something like "We are deepish he can have AK here don't wanna get c/r on turn." That is the only thing I can think of atm.

Umm as others have said, As played its a fold for sure. You need to bet the flop though. C-betting keeps your range wider and gets value from worse pairs.

I cant see him having anything in his river value raising range that you beat.

Also from your description he seems pretty in-line, hard to imagine hes just going to randomly try to outplay you.

If you think you might run into this guy in the future you could prolly look him up just to see and note it.

edit: 22 can get to the river also.

[Pascal]

Even though it's not all that important at this level, betting the flop also gives you a more balanced range. Then again, I think even at 10NL villains are going to notice if you keep checking flops like KK3 with showdown value hands and start playing back against you when you do cbet fairly quickly as your range will be strongly weighted towards air.

[Tom1559]

I agree you should have bet the flop. This would have given you a much better idea of what the villian was holding. I would bet the turn as well but if he called that I do not see any choice but to fold to his raise on the River.

[Pascal]

You're not betting flop to get a better idea of villain's hand, you're betting flop for value