AK didn't bet the turn, scary board.

[seven-deuce]

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.10 BB (6 handed) - PokerStars Converter Tool from Play Online Poker, Site Reviews & Poker Forum | FlopTurnRiver.com

BB ($11.38)
UTG ($9.44)
MP ($17.17)
Hero (CO) ($10)
Button ($10)
SB ($10.79)

Preflop: Hero is CO with A, K
UTG bets $0.20, 1 fold, Hero raises to $0.80, 3 folds, UTG calls $0.60

Flop: ($1.75) J, K, 2 (2 players)
UTG checks, Hero bets $1.10, UTG calls $1.10

Turn: ($3.95) 10 (2 players)
UTG checks, Hero checks

River: ($3.95) 9 (2 players)
UTG bets $2.40, Hero folds

Total pot: $3.95 | Rake: $0.18

Struggling to put his guy on an accurate range, min open flat 3bet OOP? I'm going with something like {AJ AQ KQ JT suited A's 22-TT posibbly JJ} No stats, im assuming he's 4betting QQ+ AK as standard.

So i decide to 3bet the min open for value seeing 2x open as weakness most of the time.

Value bet TPTK think his check calling range is weighted more towards draws on that flop texture {club draw or AQ, some jacks AJ possibly JQ and KQ}

Think he's check raising all his nut hands on that flop {JJ 22 KJ}

Worse turn card ever flush gets there and AQ for the straight.

I decided to check for pot control and because i didn't wanna get re-raised off a hand that could win at showdown some of the time. I think a lot of his hands either improved with that card or picked up a bunch of equity. I feel this is a close spot and would like to hear your opinions please.

The fact he donks the river for what looks to be value makes me think he missed the check raise on turn, don't think actual hands in his range with a little showdown value like AJ KQ etc he's gonna fire out so large on the river. If he was gonna bluff i think he'd go smaller.

This hand was pretty much a disater for me because my thought process was so fuzzy because of preflop action and not having much confidence in the range i assigned villain.

Thoughts?

Edit only noticed there was a 4card straight on river any Qx had a straight, I was never calling river anyway, the turn decision is what im looking opinions on.

[seven-deuce]

Just stoved the range i would think he had on turn:

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

1,980 games 0.000 secs 396,000 games/sec

Board: Jd Kc 2c Tc
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 50.051% 48.33% 01.72% 957 34.00 { AcQc, AJs, A9s-A8s, AQo-AJo, KJo+, QJo }
Hand 1: 49.949% 48.23% 01.72% 955 34.00 { AdKh }


You think my range is accurate/semi accurate here?

Pokerstove for river is clear fold knew that anyway:

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

44 games 0.000 secs 8,800 games/sec

Board: Jd Kc 2c Tc 9s
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 75.000% 75.00% 00.00% 33 0.00 { AcQc, AJs, A9s-A8s, AQo-AJo, KJo+, QJo }
Hand 1: 25.000% 25.00% 00.00% 11 0.00 { AdKh }


I think on the turn we can split his range into nutted flushes straights and showdown value Jacks that may have picked up equity? for JQ with Qclubs or AhJc etc, i think we could possibly be getting check raised more often than check called here what you think?

[WeldPhaser]

well, w/ absolutely no reads, stats, anything, i wouldn't be head over heels about assuming a min-ra' is weak. Unless you've seen him vary his sizing. He's still utg.

Besides that little nugget I'm at a loss here deuce.

[seven-deuce]

Thanks for the reply weldphaser,

So you wouldn't 3bet utg?

If you flat it opens the door for BTN and the blinds to call so you could potentially be playing a hand you want in a HU pot multiway.

I thought people would have differing opinion on the turn decison, i'm interested to hear if anyone thinks it's a b/f and their reasoning?

[MadMojoMonkey]

@ 10NL FR on Bovada, I'm about the only person that PFR's with any consistency at all. Most pots that I'm not involved in are limped pots. The point is: these fish do not know what, how, or why to raise pre-flop.

They don't know how important it is to get a pot HU by the flop, so they play most pots multi-way. Because of this, they overvalue pre-flop ranges and undervalue their flop range. They don't know about pot odds and drawing odds so they give up too easy and don't understand how to be "priced in" or avoid "pricing in" their opponents.

Start w/ fishy 10% ish...
{ 22+,ATs+,KTs+,AJo+ }
...and adjust as you see what they actually have in these spots.

EDIT: @ 10NL, they mostly only 4-bet AA. Most of them will NOT 4-bet AKo, and might not even 3-bet { KK,AKs }.
Def. b/f on the turn. The draws got there, but that doesn't mean Villain was on a draw. Unless you have a read that if you check the turn, you can get Villain to fire with weak sauce on the river.