ITH I flop two sets (5 PLO)

[Penneywize]

I'm x-posting this to my PLO operation thread, though we should keep the discussion in here for the sake of any passers-by.

Anyhow, fun times:

Villain is running 55/30 over a sample of about 100 hands, and has been very passive postflop.

I'm running something ridiculous like 9/4. I generally run about 20/10 which is obv too nitty for 6 max plo but I'm essentially limping behind quite a lot of big pair hands and other hand structures with good nut potential, then playing fit-or-fold post.

I get the feeling villain is generally aware of my nittiness.

$0.02/$0.05 Pot Limit Omaha Hi
PokerStars
6 Players
Hand Conversion Powered by weaktight.com

Stacks:
UTG ($11.88) 238bb
UTG+1 ($8.96) 179bb
Hero (CO) ($14.51) 290bb
BTN ($5.37) 107bb
SB ($3.71) 74bb
BB ($7.35) 147bb

Pre-Flop: ($0.07, 6 players) Hero is CO
UTG calls $0.05, UTG+1 raises to $0.22, Hero raises to $0.65, 1 fold, SB calls $0.63, 1 fold, UTG folds, UTG+1 calls $0.43

Flop: ($2.05, 3 players)
SB checks, UTG+1 checks, Hero bets $1.97, SB folds, UTG+1 raises to $3.94, Hero calls $1.97

Turn: ($9.93, 2 players)
UTG+1 goes all-in $4.37, $4.37 to Hero ($9.92)?

Pretty vom-tacular spot imo. I think the flop call is fine, I have 30%ish equity against even the most pessimistic of villain's holdings - that being a made straight + a flush draw.

Turn doesn't change much, but I wonder if it's possible to find a fold here given the obvious strength of villain's range. The really sick part about it is that the only potential holdings villain has that I'm crushing i.e. sets / 2p + flush draws is completely ruined by my having QQ to go with my KK here. So few combos of TTxx + FD left over that I'm ahead of.

In short, I think the villain has AJxx here about 90 - 95% of the time, and the remainder will be TTxx, perhaps with AQ / AK with a flush draw or something of that nature.

If I accept this range, I only have about 20% equity and should fold here. Thoughts? Can't ever fold flop, right?

[rpm]

preface: havent played any omaha for ages. sucked at it when i did.

given villain's line and our blockers to nearly all the pair-based hands, i'm kind of inclined to think villain's range is exclusively the nuts here. that and the fact that we block our own outs to improving (5 on flop, 8 on turn) i think i want to fold. we have like 17% against AJxx and need 25% to profitably make the call. i guess it depends if villain ever actually does this with worse, and if he does it often enough to make our equity up to 25%

[rpm]

ha i didn't read any of your post after the hand. glad i just wasted 5 minutes of my life trying to come to conclusions that were arleady right in front of me

[Penneywize]

NP rpm, thanks for taking the time nonetheless. I suppose it's fairly obvious that I called here and he showed down AJ8x + nut FD which completely raped me. Even if the decision on the turn is puke-inducing, I figure posting up a hand like this will help cement it into my memory more. I don't want to be folding this against some villains, obviously, but the reads going into the hand should have helped me come to the right decision.

[TLR]

Kind of a ugly spot, but I think it is a fold

[bikes]

I would certainly not POT otf

turn is def a fold

[drmcboy]

check flop, fold flop as played. you have 28% vs AJ** but only 16% vs AJTT (the actual worst news), and presumably no hope of making more when you get there.

[Penneywize]

Thanks for the commentary guys. I think bikes / drmcboy make a good point about how it is bad that I potted out this flop. I think I did this because I had heard in a Vanessa Selbst vid about how playing a set aggressively on a monotone or straight-possible board is a good idea because it can create profitable situations later on when the board pairs i.e. misleading our opposition to thinking that we had bet originally with a flush / straight and calling us down lighter than they should, or even raising with non-nut hands.

In retrospect however I'm sure the advice was more along the lines of "Hey, try doing this for balance every now and then, especially against certain opponents" and not "Hey, do this every time you make a set on a very wet board, making sure to pot out and call a raise and then having to fold most turns".

How about this, then: under what circumstances (i.e. in terms of opponents - how many and what tendencies do they have) would we bet the flop here, and what would our sizing be like?

[drmcboy]

HU I think it's fine to bet vs almost anyone.

The more you know what do to vs a raise, the more often you should bet. vs some people you just have to stack off here, vs most it should be fine to lay down.

The less you know, the more you want to check. I think you can max get 2 streets of value, but mostly just 1, and you should get much looser calls on a blank turn than you will on flop.