4bet bluff opportunity?

[seven-deuce]

Originally trying to iso the fish utg limp calling pre + check folding post flop all session long also calls all the way on FD's seen him make massive mistakes postflop a few times. Then i get min 3bet from the BTN this villain was 13.6 3bet over 72 hands. I didn't really use this info too much in the decision as its only 72hands could have had a rush of cards or w/e but he made it so small so his range is a lot wider especially as he's on the button.

Seen a number of guys like this 3betting light IP from the BTN at 5nl. So i think his range contains a lot of suited broadway's etc and that's it really, thought it was weighted more towards not 'bluffs' light 3bet hands that have decent post flop playability that can make nutted hands and win big pots, considering his position and the sizing of the 3bet. The final thing was players at 5nl generally only 4bet the nuts preflop (KK+) and will fold everything else. Obviously there are extreme cases such as the players who 4-5bet shove low and mid PP's and stuff but the way the games usually play minus the maniacs this usually holds true. So i think im getting folds from everything except KK+ and my plan is to fold to a 5bet jam and i believe he's never flatting from my observations.

I also hold an Ace which cuts down on the combos of AA AK AK another thing on the plus side for me.

Here's the hand what do you guys make of it?

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.05 BB (6 handed) - PokerStars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

MP ($5.86)
Hero (CO) ($6.66)
Button ($6.72)
SB ($5.42)
BB ($5.24)
UTG ($2)

Preflop: Hero is CO with 10, A
UTG calls $0.05, 1 fold, Hero bets $0.20, Button raises to $0.45, 3 folds, Hero raises to $1.20, 1 fold

Total pot: $1.02 | Rake: $0

[WeldPhaser]

good , maybe make it $1.70 ,

[OngBonga]

good , maybe make it $1.70 ,

Sizing looks good to me. Why would you 4bet so big when you're bluffing? When he calls we can't cbet unless we hit big, because he only continues with hands that crush us. This sizing means we can cbet relatively cheap, getting folds from weak pockets that outflopped us. And the cheaper we can bluff successfully, the more +ev it is.

Maybe I'm wrong here, but $1.70 4bet bluff here looks like spew to me.

[OngBonga]

fwiw I go cheaper, I make it $1.10

[WeldPhaser]

fwiw I go cheaper, I make it $1.10

Guess I was just thinking about villain set-mining

[Pascal]

Agree $1.70 is far too big. I'd make it $1.10 like Ong, but only if the dynamics at the table felt appropriate between the two of you specifically, not just based on statistics. He didn't min 3bet you for what it's worth. I definitely wouldn't be 4bet bluffing often at these stakes.

[OngBonga]

Guess I was just thinking about villain set-mining

lol @villain if he's setmining at 65c to win under $7 vs hero who has 4bet bluffs in his arsenal.

Believe me, we want him to setmine at $1.10 4bet. He's folding to 7/8 cbets, and when he continues, we need to have 2pr or better to get coolered.

Further, if he setmines this spot, our 4bet is not a bluff, it's value.

[seven-deuce]

He didn't min 3bet you for what it's worth.

Well, more or less.

[OngBonga]

Min 3bet is 3bb, he's gone 5bb, it's not "more or less". 2bb is 2bb, it's more than a steal.

I think sizing issue is derailing the more important point... is this a good 4bet bluff spot? As pascal points out, at these stakes it might not be a good idea. Ok vs this villain it might be +ev to 4bet Axo, but do you have reason to think this villain is 3betting light enough to profitably 4bet him? Or that he's capable of hero folding AQ? Or that he 3bet/folds 77-TT maybe?

[WeldPhaser]

I definitely wouldn't be 4bet bluffing often at these stakes.

I certainly agree w this point.

Respect is what we're really looking for in a cold 4bet bluff. I would say a good amount of the time you'll get it at 5nl. the rest a fish just thinks, hey, how dare you.

[supa]

There's nothing wrong with 4bet bluffing at 5nl, especially on stars. I remember moving up from 2nl and wondering wtf is with all this 3bet light shit.

You have to watch out for the mentality of "I've seen a number of these guys..." and instead 4bet them based on facts you've learned about each as an individual. Just because some guys are doing it doesn't mean this guy is.

Obv it also doesn't mean that if you have seen him 3bet light a bunch that all his 3bets are light. Don't fall into the trap of thinking he's still fos when he 5bet shove on you... he probably isn't.

[MikeMcFlack]

At 5NL there are players who will recognize that you are opening up light in late positions and 3 bet wider vs you from BTN, SB and BB. Quite rare though as most are either mass multitabling robots or extremely loose passive.

[seven-deuce]

There's nothing wrong with 4bet bluffing at 5nl, especially on stars.

This is true imo. Iv 4bet light a handful of times now and only got 5bet once its been very successful. Regarding my post i don't just assume 100% of 3bets off the button are light, but against certain villains they 3bet light pretty frequently at 5nl especially off button. Also this villains sizing stunk if he had a value hand like AA KK QQ AK or w/e he'd prob have done the standard 0.60 why raise so small with a monster especially when you're IP. Not saying you can just remove these hands from his range as soon as he 3bets small off the BTN but in my eyes they are definitely less likely. And if villain keeps doing it 4bet bluffing is a good adjustment to make and 4betting for value as well.

Flatting 3bets OOP with your medium strength hands sucks your gonna get outplayed too often, so 4bet or fold i think is the best option, 4bet weak hands and strong ones, fold KJ KQ AT etc cos when you miss the flop oop and villain is firing you can't just station hoping to be good at showdown you'll end up winning the minimum, or losing the maximum.

[Pascal]

It's definitely 4bet or fold with ATo even if he is 3betting light, don't be flatting it OOP

[lilnewtdog]

lots of button low reraises these days!

[Shotglass]

Respect is what we're really looking for in a cold 4bet bluff.

Hero already had $$$ in the pot so he wasn't cold 4betting. But the ? that OP asked was "is this a good 4bet bluff opportunity?"
Normally, I'd say no at these stakes, unless you've got a damn good read on the villain that answers Ong's questions:

but do you have reason to think this villain is 3betting light enough to profitably 4bet him? Or that he's capable of hero folding AQ? Or that he 3bet/folds 77-TT maybe?

In this case, even though it worked, I'm gonna say that it was pure spew. Your read wasn't geared toward this opponent. It was a "well, I've seen it done so lemme roll the dice."

[JayneCobbsHat]

This is true imo. Iv 4bet light a handful of times now and only got 5bet once its been very successful. Regarding my post i don't just assume 100% of 3bets off the button are light, but against certain villains they 3bet light pretty frequently at 5nl especially off button. Also this villains sizing stunk if he had a value hand like AA KK QQ AK or w/e he'd prob have done the standard 0.60 why raise so small with a monster especially when you're IP. Not saying you can just remove these hands from his range as soon as he 3bets small off the BTN but in my eyes they are definitely less likely. And if villain keeps doing it 4bet bluffing is a good adjustment to make and 4betting for value as well.

Flatting 3bets OOP with your medium strength hands sucks your gonna get outplayed too often, so 4bet or fold i think is the best option, 4bet weak hands and strong ones, fold KJ KQ AT etc cos when you miss the flop oop and villain is firing you can't just station hoping to be good at showdown you'll end up winning the minimum, or losing the maximum.

I disagree with the bolded part,you should be 4betting the strongest hands that you can't call with.For example if you normally fold AT and 67dd but call with AJ then 4betting AT is better than 4betting 67dd.If you miss the flop you can fire a cbet or chk/fold depending on which you think is the best play.

[Arjonius]

A key point here seems to be whether there's sufficient reason to think 4betting is a good play against this particular opponent at this particular time. How often players in general 3bet light in general is a secondary consideration, although not irrelevant to the extent that you feel it's influencing the table dynamic. Without more / stronger reasons than I'm seeing here, I'd lean toward folding.

[WeldPhaser]

So I started to do some digging in the good ole cranium and realized a cold 4b’ bluff can be a profitable play . Say MP opens for 3x, and a LAGdum OTB 3b’s to 12bb’s. We 4b’ in the sb and take down the pot. We’re up 15bb’s. We can’t really ask for more before a board is even dealt. The only problem is when the BU 3b’s to 12bb’s, we in turn are raising an additional 12-15bb’s. It’s a big risk/reward scenario. I recently read phil gordon’s ‘little gold book’. I’m glad I took good notes on the book. (I let a friend borrow it, lol, he mentioned to me that he thinks the author over-thinks NLHE.)
EX.
Note: most villains won’t playback to a cold 4b’ w/out QQ+,AK .
QQ+,AK = 34 combos
An agro villain in CO opens for 3x 45%(602 combos) 34/602 = 5.6% villain has QQ+,AK
BU (12% 3b’er from LP) 3b’s to 12x 12%(166 combos) 34/166 = 20% villain has QQ+,AK
So, when we cold 4b’ bluff from the blinds to 22x vs. these two villains 94% co folds, and 80% BU folds 94% X 80% = 75%
75% of the time we win 15bbs , and 25% they playback and we fold and lose 22bb’s
75% X 15 = +11bb’s when bluff works
25% X -22 = -5.5bbs when we fold
EV = +5.5bb’s

Doing these combinatorics vs. different hand ranges is great EV practice. BTW, my notes say even w/ a 50% opener. If our 3b’er 3b’s 9% or less. This is –EV..