NFD OTF vs All-In - Line & Maths Check

[DoubleJ]

$0.05/$0.10 No Limit Holdem
PokerStars
6 Players
Hand Conversion Powered by weaktight.com

Stacks:
UTG ($5.40) 54bb
UTG+1 ($10) 100bb
CO ($10) 100bb - VPIP:19, PFR:15, 3B:7, cBet:75 AF:2.0, Hands:251
DoubleJ (BTN) ($10.50) 105bb
SB ($10.38) 104bb
BB ($3.36) 34bb

Pre-Flop: ($0.15, 6 players) DoubleJ is BTN
2 folds, CO raises to $0.40, DoubleJ calls $0.40, 2 folds

I'm calling here IP w/ a decent Implied odds hand. Villain is tight/reg; aggro stats are F:1.5, T:1.6, R:6.0, but when he makes a move, it's often been an all-in. None of these hands have shown down.

Blinds are both weak/loose. Might come along too, unlikely to squeeze.

Flop: ($0.95, 2 players)
CO bets $0.91, DoubleJ raises to $2.27, CO goes all-in $9.60, DoubleJ ???

I flop TP+NFD. Villain cBets from OOP, which doesn't tell me much (???). I raise to either take it now, or juice it (Yes? No? Sizing?). He shoves over.

I'm getting 1.75:1 (36%). Even if I put him on something as tight as AA, 99-88, A9, A8 I think i'm still good to call here. Comments?

[OngBonga]

Pretty easy call.

vs sets we have 32.5% equity, once you start throwing in AQ+ 2pr and flush draws, our equity improves dramatically.

vs sets and all 2pr combos, we're 47%.

[Shotglass]

pause for a few seconds then call

[MadMojoMonkey]

Why bother with a pause when it's an all-in call?

What does this accomplish?

[OngBonga]

I'm taking as long as it takes to figure out I need around 33% and that I have lots more. As soon as that lightbulb goes off in my head, it's a snap call.

Just looking at his flop bet... maybe we should just call. I mean he's betting over the pot, this is a clear value bet on a draw heavy board. I don't think we have much fold equity, and we're behind his continuing range. Taking dead money and rake into account, it's close, possibly -ev. If we call, we need to win more money when we hit to justify calling, but not much, and he's not folding sets, aces up or AKd on a bink turn.

[bikes]

pause for a few seconds then call

wtf why

[Cobra_1878]

I'm taking as long as it takes to figure out I need around 33% and that I have lots more. As soon as that lightbulb goes off in my head, it's a snap call.

Just looking at his flop bet... maybe we should just call. I mean he's betting over the pot, this is a clear value bet on a draw heavy board. I don't think we have much fold equity, and we're behind his continuing range. Taking dead money and rake into account, it's close, possibly -ev. If we call, we need to win more money when we hit to justify calling, but not much, and he's not folding sets, aces up or AKd on a bink turn.

At the risk of sounding ridiculously stupid....

How do you work out you have 33% and also what is fold equity?

[Shotglass]

Why bother with a pause when it's an all-in call?

What does this accomplish?

nothing. I was joking which doesn't come across real well online...sorry if I caused any confusion

[Shotglass]

I'm taking as long as it takes to figure out I need around 33% and that I have lots more. As soon as that lightbulb goes off in my head, it's a snap call.

Just looking at his flop bet... maybe we should just call. I mean he's betting over the pot, this is a clear value bet on a draw heavy board. I don't think we have much fold equity, and we're behind his continuing range. Taking dead money and rake into account, it's close, possibly -ev. If we call, we need to win more money when we hit to justify calling, but not much, and he's not folding sets, aces up or AKd on a bink turn.

If he's holding AKd then I'd be complaining to the gaming client.

[OngBonga]

Ok I'm drunk, stoned and just about to leave to go and get more drunk and more stoned, so excuse me if I drift into nonsense...

How do you work out you have 33% and also what is fold equity?

I work out we have over 33% by counting our outs, which I make 12 (9 diamonds, 3 tens, I'm not counting aces because they're probably not good), there's 45 unknown cards in the deck, so we have 12/45 for the turn and 12/44 for the river if we miss turn, which I estimate very quickly to be around 45%, but since our tens aren't always good, and sometimes sets redraw to full house, I guess we have around 40%.

Fold equity is the % of hands in his range that he folds to a bet or raise. I'm sure there's articles on this site that can explain it a billion times better than I can, I'd advice you trawl through the beginner's digest and read more about fold equity, it's a wonderful weapon.

Have a nice weekend people!

[MadMojoMonkey]

fold equity
If you bet, Villain will re-raise x% of the time, call y% of the time, and fold z% of the time. You have z% fold equity to bet with air. You have equity based not on your own hand, but on the villain's response to a bet.

E.g. If Villain will fold 50% of their range to a C-bet from you, then you have 50% equity to bet with ATC. You will win the pot if you bet, simply because villain will fold.

[Cobra_1878]

Ah OK, thank you both.

[Miffed22001]

id have broken my call button hitting it so hard here