AA; fold on flop?

[Socristotle]

Villain is a solid winning reg 22/20/3.8, 9% 3bet (maybe a little too aggro?). Problem is, he is stealing over 45% of the time and cbetting 92%.
I'm around 18/15/3.2 (he won't let me play!), 9%3bet from the sb, folding 86% on this table. I feel like I'm being pushed around by this guy, surely its time to shove? Also, i think i should have 3bet to $1.20 or so, right?

No-Limit Hold'em, $0.10 BB (6 handed) - Hold'em Manager Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

Button ($10.05)
SB ($15.27)
Hero (BB) ($14.44)
UTG ($9.34)
MP ($10.15)
CO ($13.05)

Preflop: Hero is BB with A, A
3 folds, Button bets $0.30, 1 fold, Hero raises $0.90, Button calls $0.70

Flop: ($2.05) 2, K, J (2 players)
Hero bets $2, Button raises $7.20, Hero ???

[PKKFW]

I'm giving this a go mainly cause I want to work on my math and hand reading. Hopefully someone can correct me if I'm totally wrong on either.

Firstly, I'd normally 3bet to about $1.00-$1.10 myself preflop.

Here's what I got from pokerstove;

Board: 2s Kd Js
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 48.622% 48.37% 00.26% 8140 43.00 { AcAd }
Hand 1: 51.378% 51.12% 00.26% 8604 43.00 { JJ, 22, AKs, KJs+, AKo }

I discounted QQ+ as I think he'd 4bet those. If we add AsQs our equity rises very slightly.

And my math goes like this

(bet to call)/(pot + bet to call) = (5.20)/(11.25 + 5.20) = 0.3161

So you need 31.61% to call and have 48.62% equity.

With villain only having $1.95 behind(if my math is correct), I'd be shoving rather than calling because I know I wont be folding on turn or river and I doubt villain is either.

[Razvan729]

what's his fold to 3bet stat? that' pretty important here.

i would 3bet pre to 1.2, he has all PP in BTN and with the 3x3bet he can call for setmining w/o making a mistake.

i would also bet flop 1.4-1.6, w/ a psb we're folding pretty much every single worse hand then ours

he is raising after you psb the flop so i doubt he is doing this w/ TPTK. i'd fold, you line shows a lot of strenght so i doubt he is such a moron to take this line w/ a lot of hands that you beat often enough to make it a call.

[eugmac]

Ya def bigger PF.

Since villain isn't dumb and knows that we're 3betting his BU steals light, he could very well raise here with TPTK since you could very well have two spades here. He might have even made a spewy play PF with AsXs and called your smallish 3bet thinking "i has position, i'll make you fold later". And plus this is 6m.

[Razvan729]

Ya def bigger PF.

Since villain isn't dumb and knows that we're 3betting his BU steals light, he could very well raise here with TPTK since you could very well have two spades here. He might have even made a spewy play PF with AsXs and called your smallish 3bet thinking "i has position, i'll make you fold later". And plus this is 6m.

if you are right, then i am an exploitable fcking nit and that's very bad for me.

[Socristotle]

OK, i overlooked this before; he's only folding 50%, calling 31% and obv 4betting the rest. Probably an important group of stats i overlooked there.

[eugmac]

Ya so like a third of his 45% stealing range is calling the 3bet, so you have to be thinking he calls with the intention of floating and bluff raising a ton postflop. Not folding.

[Socristotle]

Meanwhile, back at the farm... (same opponent, next day)

No-Limit Hold'em, $0.10 BB (5 handed) - Hold'em Manager Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

Button ($10.15)
Hero (SB) ($11.74)
BB ($4.30)
UTG ($20.19)
MP ($3.15)

Preflop: Hero is SB with A, K
2 folds, Button bets $0.30, Hero raises $1.05, 1 fold, Button raises $1.90, Hero raises $10.64 (All-In), Button calls $7.95 (All-In)

Flop: ($20.40) K, 5, Q (2 players, 2 all-in)

Turn: ($20.40) 7 (2 players, 2 all-in)

River: ($20.40) 5 (2 players, 2 all-in)

Total pot: $20.40

Results:
Button had A, A (two pair, Aces and fives).
Hero had A, K (two pair, Kings and fives).
Outcome: Button won $19.38

An important lesson learned today. Don't let an opponent's history lead to an emotional response and make dumb plays, such as the one above. I will make sure an analyze each individual situation and make the best play based on current actions, given opponents history. Not everyone is out to get me. One thing is for sure: he played me perfectly.

Out for a run.

[Icanhastreebet]

Meanwhile, back at the farm... (same opponent, next day)

No-Limit Hold'em, $0.10 BB (5 handed) - Hold'em Manager Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

Button ($10.15)
Hero (SB) ($11.74)
BB ($4.30)
UTG ($20.19)
MP ($3.15)

Preflop: Hero is SB with A, K
2 folds, Button bets $0.30, Hero raises $1.05, 1 fold, Button raises $1.90, Hero raises $10.64 (All-In), Button calls $7.95 (All-In)

Flop: ($20.40) K, 5, Q (2 players, 2 all-in)

Turn: ($20.40) 7 (2 players, 2 all-in)

River: ($20.40) 5 (2 players, 2 all-in)

Total pot: $20.40

Results:
Button had A, A (two pair, Aces and fives).
Hero had A, K (two pair, Kings and fives).
Outcome: Button won $19.38

An important lesson learned today. Don't let an opponent's history lead to an emotional response and make dumb plays, such as the one above. I will make sure an analyze each individual situation and make the best play based on current actions, given opponents history. Not everyone is out to get me. One thing is for sure: he played me perfectly.

Out for a run.

Um you said in your previous post villain was 4bing 19% of his 45% stealing range. That makes this the most lol shove pre ever and not spew at all.

[Socristotle]

Um you said in your previous post villain was 4bing 19% of his 45% stealing range. That makes this the most lol shove pre ever and not spew at all.

Ty, and villains stats are correct, it just frustrated me to finally pick my spot and see AA lol, the irony.

[Razvan729]

you just hit top of his range ,the man is right, vs him,shoving here is ok cause you shoved for value vs his 4betting range,which has AA,KK,QQ,JJ,AK,AQ and that's enough for you to have 50%, not vs just this hand so your play was +EV

[rpm]

hand 1 i 3bet it to $1.05 pre. as played on the flop there is no need to just lead out a pot-sized bet imo. would you do this with your bluffs? would you want to risk this much with your bluffs? we can easily get the money in over 3 streets without needing to bet so big. i'd just jam over his raise on the flop - he's NEVER folding his hand, and your large sizing makes me think he has actually out-flopped you a pretty decent amount of the time when he raises (as opposed to if he had raised your standard sized cbet on this board). however he almost never has KK due to it being 4bet pre and JJ is discounted for the same reasons. 22/KJs you will see a lot. but also i think you'll see some KQs/maybe KQo. enough to just stick the money in.

hand 2 is played absolutely fine. probably note that he 4bet really small with AA in BU vs SB situation then move on.