10nl - tpgk oop on flush board

[Petulie]

Villain is 15/15 over 35 hands.

Preflop call is maybe marginal? Although I had been pretty active 3betting, I didn't want to with this hand as I would have to play oop post flop vs a tight range. So I opted to call and then c/r if I hit a nice flop.

Flop kinda sucks but we've got tpgk so I follow through with my plan to c/r. When he calls, I figure he's got fd±pair. I cbet the turn large to charge draws.

River sucks so bad. I realised villain only had under $3 behind so I considered jamming with the little fold equity I had, however anything that calls has me beat. Is this just a c/f?!


PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.10 BB (6 handed)

UTG ($7.78)
MP ($11.45)
CO ($11.29)
Button ($10)
SB ($30.35)
Hero (BB) ($28.83)

Preflop: Hero is BB with Q, A
UTG bets $0.40, 4 folds, Hero calls $0.30

Flop: ($0.85) 7, 9, A (2 players)
Hero checks, UTG bets $0.48, Hero raises to $1.60, UTG calls $1.12

Turn: ($4.05) 10 (2 players)
Hero bets $3.10, UTG calls $3.10

River: ($10.25) 3 (2 players)
Hero is sick

[d0zer]

I think it's very likely he has a heart. c/f

Ideally don't get yourself into these situations. I'd rather 3b or fold pre than call here with your limited read.

[ColdDecked]

Why are we c/r flop?

[Petulie]

Why are we c/r flop?

To regain initiative with a strong hand and ensure we get value. Also don't want to give draws cheap/free cards.

[d0zer]

To regain initiative with a strong hand and ensure we get value. Also don't want to give draws cheap/free cards.

You don't really have that strong of a hand on this board. Your equity vs his continuing range that almost always contains a heart isn't great. I mean sure you can come up with a few hands that you're vbetting (JhJ,QhQ,KhK, KQ/AJ w/heart maybe), but that's not the entirety of his range, it's not that many combos and it all has solid equity vs you.

[baudib]

Probably a fold pre, c/c 1 street then give up if he bombs turn. As played c/f. C/R flop is pretty bad.

[daviddem]

+1 to 3b or fold pre

As played, your logic is flawed when you say that you check raise to not give a free card. When you check, you do offer the free card, right? Donk, or if you think that he is very likely to raise a donk bet with hands worse than yours (read: bluffs and semi-bluffs), then c/c flop and check/decide almost every turn.

As played, I am not sure I like your turn sizing given his stack size. Half pot is enough imo.

As played, on the river it's hard to fold with these odds... he's only got 2.7 or so behind, right? But as d0zer said, can't think of hands that you beat in his range at this point.

[Carroters]

C/R the flop is pretty bad here since you just can't really do it for value. He's opened UTG and is fairly tight. He just doesn't have many worse aces, maybe AJ but that's about it. He has plenty combos of better hands like AK/sets. He may continue with KhKx QhQx etc sometimes, but like dozer says these hands are doing alright vs you and don't make up that much of his range. Here's a stove of your flop equity if he continues to this c/r.


equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 32.504% 22.53% 09.98% 6914 3061.50 { AcQs }
Hand 1: 67.496% 57.52% 09.98% 17653 3061.50 { AA, KcKh, KdKh, KhKs, QcQh, QdQh, QhQs, JhJs, 99, 77, AJs+, AQo+, AcJh, AdJh, AsJh }




On the turn you're basically just bluffing in this spot, there are no worse hands left that can call this bet, barring maybe KhKx at a push. Your equity gets even worse if he continues here.


equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 30.519% 20.54% 09.98% 253 123.00 { AcQs }
Hand 1: 69.481% 59.50% 09.98% 733 123.00 { AA, KcKh, KdKh, KhKs, 99, 77, AJs+, AQo+, AcJh, AdJh, AsJh }


C/F the river, it likely saved you another bet.

FWIW If you bet a blank river, you'd be even more crushed by his continuing range since he'd then be folding any combos of KK/QQ with a h etc that he made it to the river with.

C/C the flop and and eval the turn.

[Carroters]

You're getting a crazy price on this river actually, but beat close to 0 of his range. You can probably still just c/f lol as weird as it sounds.

[d0zer]

the only thing shoving the river does is fold out the sets that have failed to boat, but that's just not nearly enough of his range to make that +EV. The price you're getting is a product of the mistakes on earlier streets -- don't compound those mistakes by spewing the river

[Petulie]

Oh wow, didn't realise the c/r was so bad! I guess it's a different situation when villain is on the BU rather than UTG due to the wider range etc, hadn't appreciated this. I now see I was just bloating the pot in a bad spot.

[Shotglass]

Vs an UTG who who has decent stats (15/15 albeit an lol sample) opens to 4x, AQo is a pretty quick fold.

Everyone else has already beat up the flop c/r, so I'll skip ahead to the turn...

Once he calls your c/r otf, do you really think that he's gonna fold ANY of his continuing range to 10?

[rpm]

i think preflop is closer than most seem to. i'd certainly be happy to flat AQo on the BB against my UTG opening range. i can see the case for just folding though if we're liable to turning mid-strength hands into effective bluffs on wet boards postflop (no offence petulie)

i think carroters' and dozer's advice and reasoning regarding postflop play hits the nail on the head.

[baudib]

FYI even in position with 1 pair and no redraw I'm not really happy building a pot on this board vs. a strong range or vs. multiple people. If I have AK spades UTG here I'm probably looking for maybe 1 street of value.

[daven]

pre is close between 3-betting, calling, and folding. All are obviously ok.
check-call flop
as played donk turn is fine
as played check-fold river