JJ on river AKTT5 - 25nl

[daven]

villain is 14-12 TAG who really hates losing at showdown (W$WSD = 70%)
Turn and river sizing?

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.25 BB (7 handed) - PokerStars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

SB ($25)
BB ($10.57)
UTG ($10.75)
MP1 ($9.52)
MP2 ($25.60)
CO ($25)
Hero (Button) ($31.09)

Preflop: Hero is Button with J, J
2 folds, MP2 bets $0.75, 1 fold, Hero calls $0.75, 2 folds

Flop: ($1.85) 10, 10, A (2 players)
MP2 bets $1.14, Hero calls $1.14

Turn: ($4.13) K (2 players)
MP2 checks, Hero bets $2.20???, MP2 calls $2.20

River: ($8.53) 5 (2 players)
MP2 checks, Hero bets $6??,

[baudib]

i'm confused

[d0zer]

why did you bet the turn?

[daven]

why did you bet the turn?

as 6-out semi-bluff cos obviously I have a monster if the King doesn't scare me. But probably cos i was having a spew-monkey session is a better answer. Interesting.

[Carroters]

Don't really like it. He's probably not opening ace worse than AJ here so I doubt you get enough folds from such a strong range. I mean maybe he folds KQ, but that's probably outweighed by AJ-AK when he takes this line. I'd want a really good read to bet this turn and defo wouldn't bet it unless I was planning on betting the river because I had some great read he folds these hands. I'd just showdown - you're ahead plenty here on the turn and he doesn't fold enough when you're not imo.

[d0zer]

yeah just check it down

[Carroters]

Okay ignore some of that lol the turn being a K means an ace is an ace here obv, but still I don't trust him to fold AJ/AQ etc.

[baudib]

I think turning our hand into a bluff on the river is the only street I like. I'd 3-bet pre and as played probably just fold everywhere.

[Carroters]

Yeah think folding the flop is good.

[Micro2Macro]

check turn fold river if bet into he's not gonna fold kx or ax for u to start bluffing here just try to get to showdown and note what he shows down after doing this flop donk

[Alexos]

Check turn. On river you're trying to make him fold AJ/AQ but success ratio won't be too high.

[Hoopy]

14/12 guy probably has a strong range at showdown rather than trying to win at every pot.

I would just fold the flop, barely any hands we beat apart from occasional gutters. Check turn/river to see what he lead with.

[Micro2Macro]

same size on w$wsd? i think u may be overvaluing stats like this they take a while to become credible some guys just go on massive heaters over a few k hands and these type of stats get skewed more than things like pfr etc

taking note of the actual hands/quality of hands villain gets to sd with is more effective and will have u avoid making incorrect assumptions based on a statistic that may be misleading you