50NL river bluff spot

[ColdDecked]

Grabbed by Holdem Manager
NL Holdem $0.50(BB) Replayer
SB ($65.10)
Hero ($54.35)
BTN ($48.50)

Dealt to Hero 6 5

fold, SB raises to $1.50, Hero calls $1

FLOP ($3) 4 T 8

SB bets $1.90, Hero calls $1.90

TURN ($6.80) 4 T 8 Q

SB bets $4.85, Hero raises to $12, SB calls $7.15

RIVER ($30.80) 4 T 8 Q A

SB checks, Hero bets $38.95 (AI)

Villain is 18/14 with a steal of 60% in sb over 85 hands. He has cbet flop (4/4) and turn (3/3) times. Villain would probably see me as a tag and I don't have a spewy image. Flop is probably a fold without backdoors right? But as played, once he calls the turn raise, is it safe to assume that he's unlikely to have 2p/set or straight and that a river bluff shove should be +EV?

[griffey24]

Other than the fact that villain is super tight, I like it. Would prefer to do this much more vs a weaker/wider range.

What's his AF?

[ColdDecked]

AF is 7. How should this affect my decision?

[griffey24]

Well it's a pretty small sample, so 7 AF def isn't overly accurate. Though I like it more assuming he has a high AF, cause he might be more likely to 3bet flop or c/bomb turn with strong hands if he's that aggro. So his calling range is prob even weaker.

[pocketfours]

Meh. Fold the turn.

[ColdDecked]

Hm, thanks. I didn't really consider villain c/bombing turn with higher AF, which is pretty interesting.

The more I think about it, flop is probably a fold given his aggro tendencies that a float would probably not be profitable without backdoor equity. And obv turn could have been a fold. I just thought it would be a decent bluff spot since it's a good barrel card for villain and he's probably firing his entire range on this turn.

[Alexos]

3b this guy pre a lot, 56s is a decent hand to do it with

I don't mind the bluff, he has a lot of pairs + gutters/fd that call turn and fold rivers. I prefer to bluff with stuff that have a bit more equity on turn, like A9 for example