kk vs axx, turned nfd

[Zorkion]

opp is ~10/5 nit


Cake Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $0.10 BB (8 handed) - Cake-Poker Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

CO ($9.69)
Button ($23.89)
SB ($4.49)
BB ($10.36)
UTG ($6.30)
Hero (UTG+1) ($10)
MP1 ($8.40)
MP2 ($5.50)

Preflop: Hero is UTG+1 with K, K
UTG calls $0.10, Hero bets $0.40, 3 folds, Button calls $0.40, 3 folds

Flop: ($1.05) A, 7, 2 (2 players)
Hero bets $0.65, Button calls $0.65

Turn: ($2.35) 2 (2 players)
Hero checks, Button bets $1.57,

Hero ?


so im pretty sure this is a standard fold, but i wanted to double check with the implied odds of spiking the flush. can anyone lend some insight on the math for this decision?

[bikes]

why did you not bet yourself?

[Zorkion]

opp is super nit whos calling range on the flop includes only strong aces and sets

[bikes]

well he cant have AQh then and it's pretty hard to call as a super nit without that so he prolly folds Ax and that leaves 77 and 22 which would be retarded to raise on this turn

[Razvan729]

opp is super nit whos calling range on the flop includes only strong aces and sets

then why do you bet the flop if that's his range? there is nothing worse calling and nothing better folding so why do you bet the flop? your equity vs his calling range ( the one you gave) is ~10%

and bikes is right,after betting flop, why not bet the turn? i would def b/f turn like 1,6-1,8.

[OngBonga]

Think I b/f this flop around 80%, and I agree flop call means villain's range is beating us, so I can c/f this turn. I'm only calling a turn bet if I'm priced in to draw on 7 outs, since he holds two diamonds a good % of the time, and Ax rarely pays us off when we spike the nuts. Implied odds are minimal, drawing odds are thin.

Villain could have suited conns here, his flop calling range is not strictly big aces and sets. How many hands do we have on villain? If we have a large sample, then maybe we can remove sc's from his l/c range pre, but a small sample is not going to convince me he only l/c like 22+ AT-AQ on the button pre.

[Shotglass]

opp is super nit whos calling range on the flop includes only strong aces and sets

If what you wrote is true then the turn is ripe for a second barrel - 3 to a flush and a paired board. Lead for about $2.00. Fold to a raise.

As played:
As for your odds on the call, I wouldn't look at the implied odds for spiking the flush. Do you really think that he's gonna put any more $$$ into the pot with four 's showing unless he has the boat?
As I see it on the turn you now have two choices, fold or c/r as a semibluff, which is dangerous and pot committing but works if you've got the stones to do it and he's got nothing more than top pair. But if your Ax read is wrong then you're gonna lose a BIG pot.

[thelorax]

as a couple others have said...
i think b/f'ing the turn is best here.