10NL - AA on very wet flop

[kiwiMark]

Villain's unknown, 20/0 over 5 hands.

This seems like a pretty trivial fold to me to be honest, just wanting to check I'm not being too nitty as villain is highly likely to be a fishyfish (although I guess that possibly strengthens the case for folding, as he's likely to be passive).

So meh, prolly std, but will sleep better at night when someone tells me it was okay to fold my PRETTY PRETTY PAIR. wattadonk.



$0.05/$0.10 No Limit Holdem
7 Players
Hand Conversion Powered by weaktight.com

Stacks:
UTG ($10.44)
UTG+1 ($7.80)
MP ($4.19)
kiwimark (CO) ($10.88)
BTN ($3.70)
SB ($21.67)
BB ($13.87)

Pre-Flop: ($0.15, 7 players) kiwimark is CO
1 fold, UTG+1 calls $0.10 ($7.70), 1 fold, kiwimark raises to $0.50 ($10.38), 3 folds, UTG+1 calls $0.40 ($7.30)

Flop: ($1.15, 2 players)
UTG+1 checks ($7.30), kiwimark bets $0.90 ($9.48), UTG+1 raises to $3.07 ($4.23), $2.17 to kiwimark ($9.48)?

[ATM]

I personally don't feel comfortable to stack off here w/over pair .

Its very hard to put him on a range since you have only 5 hands on him .

I really don't sure if we should stack off in 10NL w/over pair against a random .

I choose to fold

[bikes]

id probably just jam and feel pretty good about it

[rong]

I'm folding this. Expect a set too often. Not many people are limp calling s/cs. I guess QQ or kk are feasible. But I just fold and swear a lot unless I have reads to tell me otherwise.

[ATM]

id probably just jam and feel pretty good about it

Can you explain please why jamming here is +ev ?

[Shotglass]

I'm folding until I've got some better reads.
Like Dan wrote: I'd expect to see a set here a bunch.

[rpm]

i'm leaning towards folding. we're obviously in terrible shape against any hand two pair or stronger. and any draws he might have here have at least 35% against us (the stronger ones are probably slight favourites) and thus don't weaken his raising range very much at all. or at least not as much as some people seem to think (in general, not strictly posters in this thread).

[Donachello]

what the fuck kind of ranges are you putting him on people o_O.

He has Jx, combo draw, NFD in his range with sets and two pair. Yes Jx would raise here and honestly Jx should be raising here given how wet the flop is and the massive chance that we actually hold a semi-bluff on this type of board. People are not that passive anymore guys, they raise draws and such as standard a lot now.

[rpm]

oh i didn't realise that 20/0 was over only 5 hands. assumed he was completely loose/passive based on the stats, which may not be the case. even still, i think it's pretty damn close and i still think i slightly prefer folding. that said, this is all based on "feel" and i haven't actually stoved our equity vs any specific ranges for this hand.

[eugmac]

Doesn't this totally depend on whether we think villain will c/R here with top pair alone? If he won't, and he'll only have pair+sd, TT, NFD, set, two pair, straight, we've got just 27% equity.

[rong]

Max 2 nut flushes in his range. Without a read that he bluffs I'm gone. Once you have a read that he thinks enough to know its a good bluffing opportunity then you can start trying to catch him out, but at 10nl I'm not making that assumption on 5 hands that he folded.

[philly and the phanatics]

look at his stack size. I agree with bb and dc that he's gonna have Jx and draws a majority of the time.

[supa]

Nitty fold seems fine to me, I'd ship tho.

[Miffed22001]

In these games im shoving fast - racing a lot but good too much to ever consider a fold.

At, say 50nl, you are more likely to find a fold IMO due to everyone not stacking off with TP (as much)

Id also jam based on his stack size - not reloading = unlikely to be a reg or any good

[Nekrogovner]

I'd check flop, and probably call turn and river, based on cards that come next, and bet sizes.

[philly and the phanatics]

nekrogovner are you being serious?....this couldnt be worse advice...any jack, any heart, any seven queen or ten are all going to make our lives hell and that is almost half the deck

[Donachello]

I'd check flop, and probably call turn and river, based on cards that come next, and bet sizes.

Why is your advice on every hand I have ever seen you post on is the exact opposite of the optimal play.

[Shotglass]

^^ It's his master plan to confuse his opponents and take over the world!!!

[Nekrogovner]

nekrogovner are you being serious?....this couldnt be worse advice...any jack, any heart, any seven queen or ten are all going to make our lives hell and that is almost half the deck

Its not an advice, he already got his advice, folding on flop is great. I just said what I would do. Ofc I would fold turn/river to any scary card... hearts, T, J, Q, 7.

[philly and the phanatics]

Its not an advice, he already got his advice, folding on flop is great. I just said what I would do. Ofc I would fold turn/river to any scary card... hearts, T, J, Q, 7.

yea and then you will have managed to squeeze absolutely no value out of your hand, and opened yourself up to being bluffed a lot on scary boards that, like you said, OFC you would fold on.

[Carroters]

Snap jam.

[rong]

Hmmm, interesting how all the good players say easy shove.

@ carrot & bikes - do you shove at 50nl too?

[Nekrogovner]

yea and then you will have managed to squeeze absolutely no value out of your hand, and opened yourself up to being bluffed a lot on scary boards that, like you said, OFC you would fold on.

No value? 't has a great value. Once I call down to showdown like a passive fish and lose pot to a 2T of hearts, I can take a note that villain is a Doyle Brunson fan, and also possibly terrible at preflop player. Great value imo.

[Carroters]

Hmmm, interesting how all the good players say easy shove.

@ carrot & bikes - do you shove at 50nl too?

With the same info we have on villain here (shorter stack, likely weaker player etc) i think it's just as much of a shove. Only difference in stakes is that the regs are a bit more common as we move up and fish more uncommon, but since this guy clearly is a weaker player, we can make the same assumptions about his games irrespective of stakes.

In this spot he's already commited a significant amount of his stack to the pot, fish raise flops in these situations pretty depolarised a lot of the time. Basically it's just really hard to make a set and he'll have way more combos of Jx and draws (possibly even QQ-KK sometimes) than he'll have better hands. These combos outweigh the sets etc so much that even if he only raises them on the flop a 3rd of the time and raises a set 100%, we still have an easy shove, emphasised even more so by the dead money and lowish SPR here.

Loads of weaker players are just of the "shit, really wet board, he haz flush draw, pot's huge, must protect my topest pair!!" mentality so I think assuming he raise/calls these hands here 33% of the time is totally fine and probably even a bit pesscimisitc.

[rong]

How do your actions change with KK or QQ?

[Carroters]

How do your actions change with KK or QQ?

Not much at all. Don't exepct QQ-KK to be a big part of his range and they probably block as many Jx combos as AA does.

[Razvan729]

w/ his preflop play, limp/call in UTG, his raise/call AI flop range is 2pair, set,TT,pair+FD, pair+gutshot , TP and vs that range we have enough equity. so i think is a 3bet shove on flop. my opinion only.