Is my math wrong? Did I play it wrong? Thoughts on my thoughts??

[PKKFW]

Not sure if my math is right here or if I made a terrible call. Either way it got me to thinking which is a good thing I guess.

So Villain is 29/13, Open from early pos 13%, cbet is 87%, flop agg freq is 48% over 120 hands.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.10 BB (9 handed) - PokerStars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

CO ($14.60)
Button ($14.45)
SB ($10)
BB ($8.80)
UTG ($8.61)
Hero (UTG+1) ($11.21)
MP1 ($20.59)
MP2 ($4)
MP3 ($10)

Preflop: Hero is UTG+1 with 10, 10
UTG bets $0.50, Hero calls $0.50, MP1 calls $0.50, 6 folds

At this point I have him on 88-AA, AJs+, AQo+, sc's possibly as low as 98+

I call to set mine which I think is pretty standard here. I'm not 3betting with TT with many to act behind against a fairly aggressive player.

Flop: ($1.65) 10, 5, 2 (3 players)
UTG bets $0.20, Hero raises to $1.50, 1 fold, UTG raises to $8.11 (All-In), Hero calls $6.61

Top set with 3 hearts what a bitch hey? lol

His flop bet size is odd to say the least. My raise is probably way too big and probably way to aggressive. Frankly I'm trying to make it unprofitable for him to continue with AhX type hands.

His shove pretty much defines his hand down to two things in my opinion....
1: A made flush.
2: AhX or possibly KhX type hands.

Now against that entire range we get from pokerstove.........

Board: Th 5h 2h
Dead:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 60.409% 60.41% 00.00% 12559 0.00 { TcTd }
Hand 1: 39.591% 39.59% 00.00% 8231 0.00 { AhKh, AhQh, AhJh, Ah9h, KhQh, KhJh, AhKc, AhKd, AhKs, AhQc, AhQd, AhQs, AhJc, AhJd, AhJs, AhTc, AhTs, KhQc, KhQd, KhQs, KhJc, KhJd }

Even if we take out KhX combos as he probably wouldn't shove with those hands fearing the Ah is with me, we still get.......

Board: Th 5h 2h
Dead:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 57.159% 57.16% 00.00% 9054 0.00 { TcTd }
Hand 1: 42.841% 42.84% 00.00% 6786 0.00 { AhKh, AhQh, AhJh, Ah9h, KhQh, KhJh, AhKc, AhKd, AhKs, AhQc, AhQd, AhQs, AhJc, AhJd, AhJs, AhTc, AhTs }


We have to call (bet)/(pot + bet to call) = 6.61/(11.26 + 6.61) = 36.9%

So it seems an easy call right? Or am I doing something wrong?

Turn: ($17.87) 5 (2 players, 1 all-in)

River: ($17.87) Q (2 players, 1 all-in)

Total pot: $17.87 | Rake: $0.88

So anyway, here's what the hand got me to thinking about.

During the hand I am not quick enough or good enough to be putting all this into pokerstove so what I do is think about the worst case scenario I might be facing, see if I have the equity to call that and then work from there.

So in this case he could have the made flush and I'd need a boat to win. That gives me 7 outs otf which equates to about 29% right? So from that point of view it's a fold. But obviously he probably isn't making this move only with a made flush right? Or wrong?

So that's when I start working on what else he might make the move with and see if I can't get some sort of guesstimate on whether it's a fold or call.

Alot of this thinking has to do with what what the person's play was. In this particular hand I really thought he was on the AhX bluff shove and that is the main reason I called, not my perceived equity. I thought this because in the past, when he had a made hand, I had seen him raise amounts designed to put pressure on and build the pot but not to blow the other person out of the hand. In fact I had not seen him go all in on the flop before. In fact he seemed like a fairly good player, if a bit loose and way aggressive. So to shove all in with a good made flush seemed out of character.

So long story short, if I'm honest about it I made this call based on my read of his play rather than on the mathematical equity of the hand. I believe it works out to be correct anyway but that's beside the point for now. Is this a good thing to be doing? Would you all be calling the flop here? Are my thoughts on his range Vs my set good or was it wishful thinking to be calling?

[philly and the phanatics]

never folding top set here imo...i doubt he has as many Ahx as your giving him but its still gonna be a call.

vs 9 combos of flushes/ AhAx/ Khkx/ lower sets we have 61% equity...cant call fast enough imo

[Shotglass]

I'm not even folding middle set here, imo.

'Course I got busto last night, set over set for using that same thought process, so wtf do I know.

[philly and the phanatics]

yea im not folding bottom set...22 has 41% equity vs the aforementioned range, and you only need 37% to turn a profit on this call.

[scott_owen]

you have 7 outs on the flop for the turn, and 10 on the turn for the river. I believe its something like 33% to fill up. Set over set means i'm never folding here. ever. Might even see AA/KK do this with certain villains so a decent chunk of his range is behind you with only 1 or 2 outs.

[Razvan729]

you said this:" At this point I have him on 88-AA, AJs+, AQo+, sc's possibly as low as 98+" as preflop range.

the tightest shoving range for him here is AJhh+,KQhh,QJhh,89hh,AhAx,KhKx and vs this you have 49% so it's a call, if his range is wider then your equity is even better.

even if we add to that range all Axhh combos left you still have 44% equity.

if we had 22 instead of TT in this case and he would have the range above + TT,55 we still would have 35% and was a close call vs his tightest range for shoving flop.


that is just a tight range, but he could also have QhQx and AhKx/AxKh and then we have more equity.

anyway, its a call here.

i would prob fold here vs a very tight postflop player, the kind of player that doesnt stack off with overpairs or FD.

[daviddem]

Raise on flop is good, call the shove is good.

Your math is right, your pot odds are 36.9%. Say he only does it with made flushes, your equity is about 33% (chance to hit a boat over the next 2 cards). He doesn't have to have that many combos of overpairs/lower sets/nut flush draws to make the call profitable.

[PKKFW]

you said this:" At this point I have him on 88-AA, AJs+, AQo+, sc's possibly as low as 98+" as preflop range.

Yeah now that I look at the range I put into pokerstove I see that I added a bunch of hands that aren't in that range! My thinking being I was trying to come up with as many hands as possible that he could have had to make this move. For some reason while I was doing the pokerstove stuff I had a brain fart thinking that the more hands I put in that would mean the less equity I would end up with rather than the other way around! D'oh! Honestly I really do understand it's the other way around! hahah

Anyway, glad to hear that I wasn't stuffing up in my math and thinking. I was just a bit worried that I was basically optimistically giving him a wider range than was likely in order to make myself feel good about my call. Glad to know that even on what could reasonably be considered his tightest shoving range I still had the equity to call.

[Nekrogovner]

Shove on the flop reeks so much of a nut flush draw. I think this villain, or any good villain with a made flush would only reraise this lightly or call to hand you over the initiative on the turn. Definitely a call.