5nl FR - River Bluff Opportunity

[spoonitnow]

Villain is 17/1 with 0 ATS and 5/5 fold to cbet over 76 hands.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.05 BB (9 handed) - PokerStars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

Hero (MP3) ($5)
CO ($12.96)
Button ($5.49)
SB ($4.33)
BB ($12.13)
UTG ($5.73)
UTG+1 ($7.89)
MP1 ($2.09)
MP2 ($5)

Preflop: Hero is MP3 with Q, K
UTG calls $0.05, 3 folds, Hero bets $0.20, 4 folds, UTG calls $0.15

Flop: ($0.47) 10, 4, 10 (2 players)
UTG checks, Hero checks

Turn: ($0.47) 5 (2 players)
UTG checks, Hero checks

River: ($0.47) A (2 players)
UTG checks, Hero ...

[!Luck]

I prob cbet this flop something dumb like .20. I have no clue on the river.

[Razvan729]

froms his stats i suppose he does limp AJ+ and all PP up to QQ. so cbetting the flop seems a good ideea to me since he'd fold a lot of better hands here, like AJs and probably 22-77.

i'd bet river also and expect him to fold 22,33,66-99,JJ if he had an A he would prob bet the river since we checked up to here.

[kfaess]

if he folds to so many cbets why are you not cbetting the flop?

so since the thread title is "river bluff opportunity" you must think you're behind right now? The only hands I can see play this way that you're also behind are pp's lower than TT. He could also have hands like QJ, KJ that will fold river but you're already ahead of. Then he could have hands like AJ.

I dunno I would prob just check it down since I don't see that many better hands we're folding out.

[Carroters]

I'd bet the flop and look to barrel a good few turns.

I'd defo bet this river like 0.34 since I'd expect this dude to have low/mid pps a bunch and not make many light call downs. Doubt he has too much Ax

[lombracremisi]

I'm in agreement with the c-bet on the flop, although I'd probably size it around .25-.3 since that's my usual c-bet in this spot whether I've hit the flop or not. (I tend towards betting in HU situations on a board like this).
It'd be a b/f since if villain raises us he's probably hit the 10's and wanted to c/r and given his pf stats he doesn't seem to get aggressive without the nuts.

As played I'd go ahead and pop the river for .3-.35 since villain's stats lend me to think he's weaktight and he's not going to call with anything less than an ace. So we're folding out his hand similar to ours, his KX hands that don't hit, QX hands that don't hit, small to medium PP's, which without calculation I believe we fold out enough hands that beat ours to justify the bet. Similar reasoning for a b/f as the flop, although I doubt he slow played 10's to the river.

[Icanhastreebet]

I'd bet the flop and look to barrel a good few turns.

I'd defo bet this river like 0.34 since I'd expect this dude to have low/mid pps a bunch and not make many light call downs. Doubt he has too much Ax

Pretty much exactly this. Probably on the smaller sizing on the flop so he definitely peels his pps to fold to turn bets.

[Roid_Rage]

Pretty much exactly this. Probably on the smaller sizing on the flop so he definitely peels his pps to fold to turn bets.

^^^^^^^

[rpm]

cbet flop looking to barrel some spade/broadway turn cards. i'm checking back the river as i imagine he would be limping in a decent amount of Axs, and some of the hands we would be looking to fold out (ie pocket pairs) may have bet at some prior stage of the hand (like 66-99 on the turn) and thus be discounted

[Vinland]

I cbet flop.

Very tempted to bluff river b/c his range will be mid PP's a lot imo. He'll have a hard time calling and you wont win a showdown hardly ever imo. I make it $0.35