25NL: TPTK 4 way

[kfaess]

villain is 26/7 over 27 hands, no solid reads yet.

[/I]$0.10/$0.25 No Limit Holdem
FullTiltPoker
5 Players
Hand Conversion Powered by weaktight.com

Stacks:
UTG MarshallDrummin ($25.77)
CO Hero ($25)
BTN W35N3R ($46.34)
SB bjm2020 ($25.60)
BB sherby330xi ($33.42)

Pre-Flop: ($0.35, 5 players) Hero is CO
1 fold, Hero raises to $0.85, W35N3R calls $0.85, bjm2020 calls $0.75, sherby330xi calls $0.60

Flop: ($3.40, 4 players)
bjm2020 checks, sherby330xi bets $2.75, Hero calls $2.75, 1 fold, bjm2020 folds

Turn: ($8.90, 2 players)
sherby330xi bets $4.75, Hero calls $4.75

River: ($18.40, 2 players)
sherby330xi bets $9, $9 to Hero ($16.65)?

Easy snap call on river?

I don't see what he can have in his range besides KQ, KJ, 55, 33, 53s (mayyybe), missed FD's

we're getting 3:1 so need about 25% equity to call. Ima put that in stove real quick


Board: 5c 3c Kd 4s 5s
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 40.000% 40.00% 00.00% 4 0.00 { AsKc }
Hand 1: 60.000% 60.00% 00.00% 6 0.00 { 55, 33, KJs+, 53s }

Ya so looks like we have more than enough equity given the range I assigned. Thoughts??

[rpm]

looks ok to me. i mean once the board pairs on the river he is only repping 6 combos that beat you. unless he flats pre/donks flop w/76s in which case it's 10. even then, i imagine this would be a call if the very bottom of his range is KQ:

Board: 5c 3c Kd 4s 5s
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 45.833% 33.33% 12.50% 8 3.00 { AsKc }
Hand 1: 54.167% 41.67% 12.50% 10 3.00 { 55, 33, AKs, KQs, 76s, 53s, AKo, KQo }

[Donachello]

@rpm the only combo of 76s that makes sense if clubs so I'd only weight that 1 out of 4 times.

I can't imagine folding the way the board ran out.

[!Luck]

Call. But hate it. The thing is if you had bigger sample size this would be easier. if he was 27/3 over 100 hands ez fold on turn.

[kmind]

You just have to call man. I'm feeling a little bit better he only half potted turn and the river is a 5.

!Luck - not all 27/3 play the same but for the most part yeah maybe.

[caddie444]

you should have made your decision about what to do on river 'blanks' (I say 'blanks' b/c the 5s is unlikely to have put him ahead on the river if he was behind) one street earlier, given you chose to call the turn.

As played:

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

10 games 0.005 secs 2,000 games/sec

Board: Kd 5c 3c 4s 5s
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 30.000% 00.00% 30.00% 0 3.00 { AsKh }
Hand 1: 70.000% 40.00% 30.00% 4 3.00 { 55, 33, AKs, AKo }

Call obv

Incidentally, if we give him the same range, and the the river instead was the 6h, the expectation of calling would then be close to 0EV. DUCY?

[couriermike]

You have to call, but like !Luck said, I'm not happy about it. This is his strength line and you're not always good but def good often enough to call the river.

I'd give him a range of like 33, 55, KK+, A2s, 76s, maybe one combo of busted fd like A4cc, half the KJ+'s (cuz he doesn't always take this line with tpgk) and AK.

Against a range like that, you are 40% otr.

[couriermike]

hehe, i think i played with you for an orbit or two the other day. we didn't have any big pots or anything tho.

[kfaess]

you should have made your decision about what to do on river 'blanks' (I say 'blanks' b/c the 5s is unlikely to have put him ahead on the river if he was behind) one street earlier, given you chose to call the turn.

I agree with this in general, however, I think in this specific case we're in position and can get reads on his timing and sizing otr. Like, if he insta ships his whole stack on the river then I'm probably folding. If he times down and then ships his whole stack, I'm probably folding.

Incidentally, if we give him the same range, and the the river instead was the 6h, the expectation of calling would then be close to 0EV. DUCY?

Twice as many combos of 55 when he has a very narrow range?

[kfaess]

hehe, i think i played with you for an orbit or two the other day. we didn't have any big pots or anything tho.

Whats your sn?

[Carroters]

Snaperjacks in da house.

[Carroters]

I'm not even "hating it" why hate a call you know to be +EV

[couriermike]

Whats your sn?

I want to keep my sn private but it was 25NL 6max on Full Tilt, 2/11 about 9:45pm, table Sect. I was two to your left. I'd never seen anybody at the tables before that I knew from the forums, so that was pretty cool.

[kfaess]

I want to keep my sn private but it was 25NL 6max on Full Tilt, 2/11 about 9:45pm, table Sect. I was two to your left. I'd never seen anybody at the tables before that I knew from the forums, so that was pretty cool.

haha nice, I see kmind on FTP from time to time. You two are the only ones I know I think

[kfaess]

btw I called and he showed up with 72o, WTF

Only thing I can think of is he called with the intention of running a bluff.

[rpm]

btw I called and he showed up with 72o, WTF

hahahahaha that made my day. lucky no-one advocated folding