10NL, 2 pair flop, facing river aggression

[crazywelshman]

I'm attempting to outline my thought process and use poker stove for the first time, so any input into how I should have played and where I'm going wrong/right would be great

Villain is 38/19 over 32 hands, haven't seen anything noteworthy from him either way at this point. My stats were pretty similar over this sample size, I'd hit some good cards and been stealing the blinds so I assume he knew I may not have the best cards.

Preflop I put him on a pretty wide range since he's just limping from the blind and probably thinks I'm stealing. Any broadway, any Ax, 22+ and higher suited connectors 67+ 97+

On the turn I narrowed his range since he had 86% fold to cbet so he must have some piece of the board. I narrowed him down to 88, TT+, any suited ace still for the flush draw , any connectors that made the straight or gave him a gut shot, any single pair with 9+ kicker or 2 pair combo, also gut shot draws K9 etc.

Did I bet the turn too small? Anyway, when the river came I pretty much left him on the same range, he bets $3.80 into the pot. How would you react? Looking at poker stove with the range I had him on I get 54% equity to call that - and it's 50% for me to call so I assume this is not an easy call?

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $0.10 BB (5 handed) - Full Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

UTG ($10)
MP ($10.40)
Button ($11.03)
SB ($10.55)
Hero (BB) ($11.54)

Preflop: Hero is BB with ,
3 folds, SB calls $0.05, Hero bets $0.30, SB calls $0.20

Flop: ($0.60) , , (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $0.60, SB calls $0.60

Turn: ($1.80) (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $1, SB calls $1

River: ($3.80) (2 players)
SB bets $3.80, Hero ??

[couriermike]

You actually need to be good 33% of the time for the call to be breakeven. It's possible villain thinks his kicker issues are solved and it's possible he just hit his flush or made trips. I think you're beat, though. Villain is clearly not afraid of you having trips or the flush. This c/c, c/c, pot line is very similar ime to a c/c, c/r line, and at the micros usually means strength, esp if they get active on a card that completes draws.

[crazywelshman]

Argh yes 33% of the time thanks, I can't believe I made that mistake after being talked through this only yesterday. Interesting that you mentioned this as a line with strength - I hadn't really thought about that and after hearing you say it I've noticed when I've taken that line myself.

[Razvan729]

i would have bet the pot o turn , making it wrong call for him to chase flush and straight. i he was AJ, QJ i think he would reraised you on turn.

[philly and the phanatics]

fwiw if he has an 86% fold to cbet (over a reliable sample) then hes not continuing with "any pair or naked gutshots" ....he's more likely continuing with Ax/ and some flush draws /and some made straights/ AJ and QJ/KQ...i would bet more on the turn....and idk if at game speed i would be able to find a fold on the river but the rivers looking mighty foldy to me, i doubt he is turning AT or AK into a bluff here

[Hoopy]

Turn bet should be at least $1.50, any Ax or pair+gutter is calling one more street.

Just fold the river as clubs/JT/KJ all got there. Bet size is nearly always a nut hand.

[philly and the phanatics]

and AJ and QJ

[daven]

pre-flop is great, flop is great, turn should be bigger, river is an easy fold.

Preflop I put him on a pretty wide range since he's just limping from the blind and probably thinks I'm stealing. Any broadway, any Ax, 22+ and higher suited connectors 67+ 97+

sounds fair enough

On the turn I narrowed his range since he had 86% fold to cbet so he must have some piece of the board. I narrowed him down to 88, TT+, any suited ace still for the flush draw , any connectors that made the straight or gave him a gut shot, any single pair with 9+ kicker or 2 pair combo, also gut shot draws K9 etc.

add the various two pair, one pair + draw hands. And count how many Ax flush draws he might have

[crazywelshman]

add the various two pair, one pair + draw hands. And count how many Ax flush draws he might have

Way less then my addled brain was thinking it would seem lol

[Carroters]

YOU NEVER NEED MORE THAN 50% TO MAKE A CALL ON THE RIVER IN A CASH GAME WHEN CLOSING THE ACTION.....RRAAAAAARGHHHH!!!!!!

[Carroters]

Fold the river, this is the sorta spot I want you book marking like we talked about for next session.

His range here is heavily weighted to flushes and Jx and is rarely Ax and is a bluff almost never. Yes you only need 33%, but you sure as hell ain't got it.

[daven]

this is the sorta spot I want you book marking like we talked about for next session.

pms?

[Carroters]

pms?

I rarely if ever get pms.

[Miffed22001]

I wouldnt call getting that price on the river when the flush completes - if you were getting 3:1 id puke (and still probably call as the price is then just too good)