$25NL JJ vs Fish OOP

[StarGrinder]

Villain is fishy 80/0 over 20 hands. Total calling station. His range is flush draws, Tx, A3, 36 (yep), even middle pairs.

$0.10/$0.25 No Limit Holdem
8 Players
Hand Conversion Powered by weaktight.com

Stacks:
UTG ($10)
UTG+1 ($45.38)
Hero ($27.15)
MP2 ($22.15)
CO ($25)
BTN ($22.86)
SB ($22.75)
BB ($6.24)

Pre-Flop: ($0.35, 8 players) Hero is MP1
2 folds, Hero raises to $0.75, 2 folds, BTN calls $0.75, 1 fold, BB calls $0.50

Flop: ($2.35, 3 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $2, BTN calls $2, BB folds

Turn: ($6.35, 2 players)
Hero bets $6, BTN calls $6

River: ($18.35, 2 players)
Hero?

[spoonitnow]

If you check and he shoves, decide if you're calling. Then compare the EV of a check to the EV of shoving.

[daven]

what's his calling range
what's his bet when checked to range
what's his check behind range
etc

i bet $11 here sometimes

[Hoopy]

Shove river, we have about 60% equity vs his range.

[StarGrinder]

Shove river, we have about 60% equity vs his range.

This was the initial thought during the hand. But 60% vs his range of calling a shove? I don't think so.

[philly and the phanatics]

if hes an 80/0 id be extremely tempted to shove....against someone with normal stats id probably bet like 10 doll hairs here

[Hoopy]

This was the initial thought during the hand. But 60% vs his range of calling a shove? I don't think so.

Well he never folds Tx to a shove here since he's station, and even if we give him every heart combo possible and some 2x hands we still have 60% equity.

E(shove) = 0.62*(18.35+14.11) - (0.38*14.11) = 20.1252 - 5.3618 = +$14.8

If we check and he shoves we need around 30% to call, given he's a calling station I really doubt we have anywhere near that much equity vs his range so a check is OEV.

[couriermike]

Since villain is so passive, I think you can make a small blocking bet here of around $5 or so and get called by worse without ever getting raised by worse. It's awkward because there's less than a psb behind, but there is value to be had even though some portion of his range just got there. So a smallish b/f looks good. When you shove, you fold alot of worse hands, but of course you're never folding better.

[StarGrinder]

When you shove, you fold a lot of worse hands, but of course you're never folding better.

This. However, I made the mistake of not thinking through this decision and moved in on him. Fish will call down with AT or KT in this situation, but really that's about all we beat that's going to call off the rest of his stack. If I had position on him and he checked I'd be checking behind here a ton or making a small bet to get Tx to call. But with me being OOP, I shove. Doesn't really add up.

[philly and the phanatics]

what worse hands? he's an 80/0 he will call a shove here with 99 sometimes....

[LAPRAS]

river is a c/f

villain has every hh combo in his range

If you check and he shoves, decide if you're calling. Then compare the EV of a check to the EV of shoving.

c/c makes absolutely no sense

Shove river, we have about 60% equity vs his range.

vs his range for calling a shove? nah we don't. care to elaborate?

[Penneywize]

back to 2p2 you go, Lapras

[philly and the phanatics]

vs every flush combo and all Tx better than T9 then we have 57% equity, assuming he calls with it all in and i have no reason to believe otherwise

[Wikkiwikki]

I see nothing wrong with check calling as you will get a lot of guys to bluff in this spot with weaker hands who wouldn't bet otherwise (betting the scare card) and if they check behind it's kind of what you want anyway.

[LAPRAS]

vs every flush combo and all Tx better than T9 then we have 57% equity, assuming he calls with it all in and i have no reason to believe otherwise

villain is 80vpip. he's never folding T3, but also has a lot of 2x in his range and possibly overpairs. i don't think we can expect a call here from 77.

win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 37.368% 37.37% 00.00% 71 0.00 { JhJs }
Hand 1: 62.632% 62.63% 00.00% 119 0.00 { QQ+, TT, 88, 44, 22, AhKh, AhQh, AhJh, AhTh, Ah9h, Ah7h, Ah6h, Ah5h, Ah3h, A2s, KhQh, KhJh, KhTh, Kh9h, Kh7h, Kh6h, Kh5h, Kh3h, K2s, QhJh, QhTh, Qh9h, Qh7h, Qh6h, Qh5h, Qh3h, Q2s, JhTh, Jh7h, Jh6h, Jh5h, Jh3h, J2s, T6s+, Th5h, T4s, Th3h, T2s, 9d7d, 9h7h, 9h6h, 9h5h, 9h3h, 92s, 82s, 7h6h, 7s6s, 7h3h, 72s, 6h5h, 62s, 52s, 42s, 32s, A2o, K2o, Q2o, J2o, T2o+, 42o, 32o }

note that even by discounting overpairs and replacing QQ-AA with 55-77, we still don't have enough equity to v-bet.

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 47.668% 47.67% 00.00% 92 0.00 { JhJs }
Hand 1: 52.332% 52.33% 00.00% 101 0.00 { TT, 88-44, 22, AhKh, AhQh, AhJh, AhTh, Ah9h, Ah7h, Ah6h, Ah5h, Ah3h, A2s, KhQh, KhJh, KhTh, Kh9h, Kh7h, Kh6h, Kh5h, Kh3h, K2s, QhJh, QhTh, Qh9h, Qh7h, Qh6h, Qh5h, Qh3h, Q2s, JhTh, Jh7h, Jh6h, Jh5h, Jh3h, J2s, T6s+, Th5h, T4s, Th3h, T2s, 9d7d, 9h7h, 9h6h, 9h5h, 9h3h, 92s, 82s, 7h6h, 7s6s, 7h3h, 72s, 65s, 62s, 52s, 42s, 32s, A2o, K2o, Q2o, J2o, T2o+, 42o, 32o }

back to 2p2 you go, Lapras

nice contribution to this strat thread, if you have a personal issue then PM me and i'll be more than happy to ignore it.

I see nothing wrong with check calling as you will get a lot of guys to bluff in this spot with weaker hands who wouldn't bet otherwise (betting the scare card) and if they check behind it's kind of what you want anyway.

i'm expecting an 80/0 to check back with any sort of SDV here, and mostly he gets to the river with SDV (made hands). therefore, we can assume that he calls with worse more often than he bluffs here. that's why it's a question of whether or not to v-bet or c/f. c/c makes no logical sense on this board texture, especially so vs an opponent whose preflop stats indicate a weak/passive player.

[couriermike]

IME the fish will fold crud to an overbet that they won't fold to a normal half pot or 2/3 bet. Have you guys seen the same?

[Shotglass]

IME the fish will fold crud to an overbet that they won't fold to a normal half pot or 2/3 bet. Have you guys seen the same?

Yeah, normally but an 80/0 cs is likely to call down with that board and Ax or 8x thinking his kicker or 2pr is better than yours. Even to an overbet. His range has every possible HH combo, so I wouldn't shove...maybe a small blocker of about 1/3 ps. If he comes over the top, fold. (probably one of the many leaks in my game :-p )

[philly and the phanatics]

lapras even an 80/0 doesnt have J2o/T2o, 42o,32o, still a shove imo

[StarGrinder]

Perhaps I'm giving the fish entirely way too much credit here. I dunno., but here's my thoughts.

If we shove, we're only going to get the top of his range to call. Granted he's a fish, and the top of his range is much wider than a 18/16 reg. But I have a hard time including anything but Tx in his calling range that we beat vs a shove. Will he call with 99 or A8? Who knows.

If we check, he's going to bet all made flushes and probably check behind with everything else since he's so passive. I really don't mind a check/check here and getting a showdown OOP.

But what if we bet something like $6 (1/3 pot)? He's still going to move in with his made flushes. Since passive fish only re-raise with the nuts, and a smallish bet will get a call from Tx, A8, 99, etc, isn't this the best option?

[Hoopy]

vs his range for calling a shove? nah we don't. care to elaborate?

The range you've given him for calling is incorrect because he's not playing hands like T2o+ and Q2o/J2o preflop even though he is super loose. Also sometimes he raises strong hands on the turn and sometimes he flats them. So we have to discount some combo's of 2x, ditto with TT/88/44/22.

Still a close spot though, Stargrinder's idea of betting $6 seems quite good. Even c/f can't be bad.

[LAPRAS]

Q2 and J2 are definitely in his range pre. T2 is questionable. Plug 80% into stove, modify it as you see fit - it's hard to take out J2. Also disagree that his call/call line caps his range all that often; vs a reg yeah, vs an 80/0 i'm not so convinced. These guys tend to slowplay a lot. 2x wants to see a safe turn, etc. fish mentality.

difference in ev between betting and c/f is gonna be minimal, my main gripe was with people saying c/c.

i don't think we can have better than 45% equity here no matter which way we try to spin it. If we bet then it's for razor thin value. Pretty cool hand though.

[StarGrinder]

Well I just think we're coming out on the losing end more often than not by shoving in to him. Seems like the worst thing we could do, compared to all other options and outcomes.

[Micro2Macro]

c/c would likely be worse than betting yourself because it's unlikely a super loose player (assuming he is passive too) will really value bet anything worse on this card (other than maybe a good ten which you see jam probably never but instead gay bet so if you do check his sizing/timing is very important) and he can't really have total garbage air in his range at this point after you pot flop/turn.

I would jam because he can have any Tx and certainly that won't fold, plus I would expect a weaker player to jizz their pants and raise the turn some non 0 % of the time very quickly when they spike trips, so I think you can discount 2x combo's by the river a bit.

Keep in mind the decision to check/call river depends on his sizing/timing so the real decision here is whether to bet or check, and if we decide to check THEN we have a new decision (which we should have some sort of plan for going into it). So you might say 'okay I will check and call a small bet, but fold to an all in' then carry that as your initial plan and re-evaluate it when the time you are facing the decision comes. We can't necessarily decide whether we are folding to a river bet before we see it because we haven't seen his sizing. We can plan for it though.

[d0zer]

c/c is horrible, the only question here is shove vs like 1/2 pot or something and I don't think the sizing changes his calling range enough so just shovel and hope you run into a ten or something silly instead of the flush OP ran into here