lolpotodds?

[philly and the phanatics]

first hand vs this villain he posted so its obv his first hand at table

weaktight | Hand | JJ - $0.10/$0.25 No Limit Holdem

for the river i have his range as

T8+, Asxs, QsJs and other suited connectors, and TT (to represent all the times he misplayed any of his sets on the flop)

against which i have 50% and can bet for value

then when he raises his range becomes like KT/flushes/and maybe a misplayed set or 2 (doubtful)

i folded but given the odds i think i should have called (i only need like 17% equity or some shit)

[Donachello]

I'm pretty sure I hate your river bet sizing and easiest fold ever

[philly and the phanatics]

yea i figured the fold was ez just kinda annoying folding to a minraise...what would you bet on river...anything else in hand?

[kmind]

Looks pretty good. I might bet smaller/fold on the river because QJ just got there, spades got there and random two pairs with a K got there.

[ColdDecked]

I don't actually hate your bet sizing because you're targeting his TX hands for value and smaller bets are okay for thin value. But I think c/f would be fine here given the range you put him on by the river. All the draws got there and he's checking behind TX. I don't see too many bluffs that villain will have on the river (no busted draws, overs + gutter would have hit the K, etc.)

As played, it's an easy fold.

[caddie444]

c/f he's prob not turning his 10x, 66-88 into bluffs

as played fold river

You do have 50% equity with the range you gave him but do you think he is calling a river bet with that whole range?

[Micro2Macro]

I'm pretty sure I hate your river bet sizing and easiest fold ever

+1

[philly and the phanatics]

c/f he's prob not turning his 10x, 66-88 into bluffs

as played fold river

You do have 50% equity with the range you gave him but do you think he is calling a river bet with that whole range?

yes i do :-/ hes an unknown so i have no idea how stationy he is or isnt, but i felt like there was a good chance hed call all his Tx with this sizing...


i know hes not turning Tx and 66-88 into bluffs thats why i wanted to get value from them by betting....i just figured maybe you guys thought there was a chance he was turning them into a bluff and i should have called but apparently not which is fine because i folded..

[philly and the phanatics]

+1

neither you or DC said what you would do as far as river sizing

[Donachello]

Explain your reason for betting this size? Are you betting for value? Betting as a block bet? Betting as a bluff? My guess is that at the time you had no idea. Sure the range you give him after the fact makes it a value bet but while you were doing it you probably were like well... he might have a ten..... uh... 5 dollars is my favorite number... I'll bet 5!

Point is if you're betting for value then bet it bigger and fold to a shove. If you're scared of the K and the flush then check and evaluate what he does. This bet just looks like you have no idea wtf is going on and I would raise you 10000000% of the time if I was villain

[philly and the phanatics]

it was a blocking value bet :-/....def had a reason and def wasnt just like "oh i like 5" i realize it was small but i figured hed fold anything i beat to any big bet and if i checked he would just check behind all his Tx which make up a good majority of his range (missed value)

i guess i could have made it like 6.50 or w/e and it would have been better, but aside from that?

[Micro2Macro]

c/f or bet way smaller this is a really scary river for Tx or 9x

I'd probably lean towards c/f but you can probably bet 1/5p or so, still get looked up by any pair, and not really risk being bluffed out often if villain raises.

[ColdDecked]

Stacks sizes makes bet/folding larger kinda crappy. Even if we half pot river, we are committing a little more than half of our effective stack. If I felt that a river vbet was good, I would have b/f smaller since the relative hand strength the target range we're aiming for is pretty weak relative to the board.

I think c/f is probably the best play here. It's pretty hard to get 3 streets from a T off this board and I actually feel that most T's will fold to pretty much any bet.

[surviva316]

bet turn 5 dollhairs fo sho.

i'd bet river more like 3.50 but i don't think 5 is that awful. as played, you're not good here the necessary 25% of the time

[kmind]

Explain your reason for betting this size? Are you betting for value? Betting as a block bet? Betting as a bluff? My guess is that at the time you had no idea. Sure the range you give him after the fact makes it a value bet but while you were doing it you probably were like well... he might have a ten..... uh... 5 dollars is my favorite number... I'll bet 5!

Point is if you're betting for value then bet it bigger and fold to a shove. If you're scared of the K and the flush then check and evaluate what he does. This bet just looks like you have no idea wtf is going on and I would raise you 10000000% of the time if I was villain

I think betting smaller > betting bigger. Villain's range is elastic. A lot of people don't bluff raise nearly enough at these stakes and esp. when they have showdown value.

But agreed with m2m, either c/f or bet smaller.