25NL - Combo Draws vs Aggro Fish OOP

[StarGrinder]

Playing OOP vs an aggro villain sucks and I tend to get in to these "WTF should I do here spots" quite often. This probably isn't the best example but it's a hand I just recently played so w/e. Looking for some feedback on hero lines and range analysis.

Hero is running 21/18 and Villain is 36/21 ~100 hands. Both have been pretty aggressive post-flop. Villain has raised cbets 3x over this sample. He hasn't topped up all session so I assume he's just an aggro-fish.

$0.10/$0.25 No Limit Holdem
PokerStars
7 Players
Hand Conversion Powered by weaktight.com

Stacks:
UTG ($25)
Hero ($28.32)
MP ($14.68)
CO ($43.06)
BTN ($12.63)
SB ($29.76)
BB ($27.49)

Pre-Flop: ($0.35, 7 players) Hero is UTG+1
1 fold, Hero raises to $0.75, MP calls $0.75, 4 folds

Other than MP, CO and BTN are both nits and the blinds have been calling OOP with crap so I pop it with a meh hand. I can definitely see a fold here, but that's not the point. Villain's calling range is pairs, broadways, suited Ax, maybe some SCs 76-T9s, Q9s, J9s, etc. Anyway...

Flop: ($1.85, 2 players)
Hero checks, MP bets $1.50, Hero calls $1.50

While I do like this flop, I hate being OOP vs a laggtard and I don't want to commit 60bb to the hand just yet... thoughts? IMO a check/call is best in this spot since I assume villain will raise or fold but if I check he's almost certainly going to bet with the majority of his range and I'd like to keep him in with worse hands.

Turn: ($4.85, 2 players)
Hero checks, MP bets $2.50, $2.5 to Hero ($26.07)?

So this is a pretty good card (OESD +2nd NFD) and my middle pair could be best (but I'm not really counting on it). Villain has about 50bb after the flop and will barrel a wide range. Should we just bet/jam here? Check/call? C/R allin? He's going to call with 2p, 1p combo draws, AdX, sets, and made hands so I'm pretty close to 50% equity against his stacking off range, no? (FWIW Hero C/R'd and said Arrrrgh-In!)

This is pretty wide and includes some blockers but w/e {QQ-99,AdTd,Ad9d,Ad8d,Ad7d,Ad6d,Ad5d,Ad4d,Ad3d,Ad2d,KJ s+,Q9s+,J9s+,T9s,AdQc,AdTc,Ad9c,Ad8c,Ad7c,Ad6c,Ad5 c,Ad4c,Ad3c,Ad2c,KTo+,Q9o+,J9o+,T9o}

[dranger7070]

I fold pre, but since thats not what you're looking for:

Personally, I probably just bet/3bet the flop since he's shown he's capable of raising flop cbets. (How many cbets did he face vs how many times he raised it btw?) He's going to stack off with a shit ton of stuff. Flushes, which we're obv behind, but we have outs against, sets, which we have 8 outs vs + backdoors to straights, and he's probably stacking QJ, KxTd, plus random AdXx, and possibly QdXx.

Interested in other people's thoughts, 115 views and 0 replies is kind of gay.

[rong]

1. I'd fold pre generally, but depending on the table I might be opening here.
2. Given villain, as played I shove turn.
3. Cbet the flop. Asd played, check raise the flop.

Range analysis:

Preflop:
JJ-22,AJs-A2s,K7s+,Q9s+,J9s+,T9s,98s,87s,76s,65s,AQo-A9o,K9o+,QTo+,JTo

which is about 22%. I've got rid of QQ+, AK & AQs assuming a 3bet(3%).

I figure once you check the flop someone this aggro is betting 100%.

Which gives us a turn range of exactly the same as the above. Assuming he double barrels when checked to with 100% of his range, it's with you with a pot of $7.35.

Assuming if you shove he calls with the fllowing: JJ-99,44,AdJd,AdTd,Ad9d,Ad8d,Ad7d,As7s,Ad6d,
Ad5d,Ad4d,Ad3d,Ad2d,KdQd,KcJc,KhJh,KcTc,KhTh,
KsTs,Kc9c,Kh9h,Ks9s,QcJc,QhJh,QcTc,QhTh,Qc9c,
Qh9h,Qs9s,JcTc,JhTh,Jc9c,Jh9h,Tc9c,Td9d,Th9h,
98s,8d7d,7d6d,6d5d,AcQh,AcQs,AdQc,AdQh,AdQs,
AhQc,AhQs,AsQc,AsQh,AdJc,AdJh,AdTc,AdTh,A9o,
KcQh,KcQs,KhQc,KhQs,KsQc,KsQh,Kc9d,Kc9h,Kc9s,
Kh9c,Kh9d,Kh9s,Ks9c,Ks9d,Ks9h,QJo,QcTh,QhTc,
QsTc,QsTh,Qc9d,Qc9h,Qc9s,Qd9h,Qh9c,Qh9d,Qh9s,
Qs9c,Qs9d,Qs9h,JcTd,JcTh,JhTc,JhTd

That means folding 54.3% of the time, and when called we have 43% equity:

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

4,884 games 0.001 secs 4,884,000 games/sec

Board: Jd 4d Qd Ts
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 43.151% 41.30% 01.85% 2017 90.50 { KdJs }
Hand 1: 56.849% 55.00% 01.85% 2686 90.50 { JJ-99, 44, AdJd, AdTd, Ad9d, Ad8d, Ad7d, As7s, Ad6d, Ad5d, Ad4d, Ad3d, Ad2d, KdQd, KcJc, KhJh, KcTc, KhTh, KsTs, Kc9c, Kh9h, Ks9s, QcJc, QhJh, QcTc, QhTh, Qc9c, Qh9h, Qs9s, JcTc, JhTh, Jc9c, Jh9h, Tc9c, Td9d, Th9h, 98s, 8d7d, 7d6d, 6d5d, AcQh, AcQs, AdQc, AdQh, AdQs, AhQc, AhQs, AsQc, AsQh, AdJc, AdJh, AdTc, AdTh, A9o, KcQh, KcQs, KhQc, KhQs, KsQc, KsQh, Kc9d, Kc9h, Kc9s, Kh9c, Kh9d, Kh9s, Ks9c, Ks9d, Ks9h, QJo, QcTh, QhTc, QsTc, QsTh, Qc9d, Qc9h, Qc9s, Qd9h, Qh9c, Qh9d, Qh9s, Qs9c, Qs9d, Qs9h, JcTd, JcTh, JhTc, JhTd }


So, shoving the turn raise leaves us with 3 outcomes
Villain folds 54.3% of the time : we win $7.35
Villain calls 45.7% of the time : we lose 56.9% of the time = - $12.43
........................................: we win 43.1% of the time = + $29.71

ev= (.543*7.35) + .457((.569*-12.43)+(.431 *29.71) = 6.61

And why do I work shit out in such a weir way? Regaqrdless, I say shove the turn.

[dranger7070]

Bet/3bet is just so much more sexy tho.

Edit: Should probably expand on this more.

It's sexy for a couple different reasons:

1.) He's shown he can raise the flop (doesn't say as a bluff or for value, but I'm going to assume he can do it as a bluff since he's a lagtard at FR and he's running 30/20 or w/e) so he's going to fold to our 3bet a TON if he has any sort of air in his raising range. Even his medium strength hands are going to have to fold = more $$$ shipped to us instantly.

2.) We get value out of AdXx, worse Jx hands, etc.

3.) This is a flop that he can bluff raise pretty easily if he's capable of it. It's a scary board for anyone without at least a decent diamond in their hand and we basically have to have AdKx, AdQx, AdJx, KdQx, KdJx, etc for us to be able to continue. This might be taking it too deep since I doubt he thinks about our range, but he might be thinking something like, 'oh if he doesn't have a diamond he'll fold, RAISE!'

4.) When we do stack off, we have loads of equity (even vs flopped sets, and any non nut flushes) + fold equity = sooooo +EV.

So yea, looking to see if anyone disputes that bet/3bet is the best line?

[StarGrinder]

I forgot I even posted this.

Anyway, I didn't have a big sample on him (~100 hands) but in that sample he raised cbets 3/5 times, and he folded 2/3. It's interesting that you think bet/jamming the flop is sexy, although your reasoning does make sense. I just wasn't ready to commit to the hand until the turn. Anyone think this is wrong considering villain's stack size combined with our equity on the flop? I think the turn is a fairly standard spot to just bet/jam and get it in.

[tyrn]

Bet/3bet is just so much more sexy tho.

+1

bet bet and more bet


Worst case:

Board: Jd 4d Qd
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 45.152% 45.15% 00.00% 447 0.00 { KdJs }
Hand 1: 54.848% 54.85% 00.00% 543 0.00 { QcJc }

[dranger7070]

The worst case is he has a flopped nut flush. That's one of the better scenarios we can hope for.