AKs in multiway squeezed pot - river spot.

[Carroters]

BU is a 29/14 fish, who's folded to 0 of 2 3-bets so far. SB is a tight reg, running 19/15 and 3-betting 5% over 550 hands; he's generally pretty stright forward, haven;t seen him ever get too out of line.

I flat pre here, because I doubt he or the fish are stacking off with too much worse if I 4 bet and i really want the fish to come along with his AJ KJ KQ AQ type of shit because I stack him frequently post flop when I flop top pair. Also don't think I'm muchbetter than like 40-50% if I get it in with the reg, and think he's probably pretty strong here and not bluffing too much given the fish is stationy, again if he's widening his value range and squeezing AJ AQ KQ etc vs the fish, I'm happy flastting IP. So yeah really std flat pre lol.

Anyways when the reg calls this turn, i guess his range is weak Ks he doesn't wanna value bet on the turn and Qs he doesn't bet flop with and obv turned draws are quite likely. Given that he makes some 2 pairs some of the time on the river, and he I can't see a whole lot of worse hands he can call with should I just be checking back this river? I guess KJ, or light squeezes like Kxs could call, but that's about it and I don't see a lot of them in his range anyways. I can prolly bvet turn a bit harder to get more value from draws etc, but was trying to town this fish if he has TT JJ or w/e.

Thoughts?

No-Limit Hold'em, $1.00 BB (6 handed) - Hold'em Manager Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

UTG ($175.40)
Hero (MP) ($100)
CO ($198.50)
Button ($80.50)
SB ($100)
BB ($77.60)

Preflop: Hero is MP with A, K
1 fold, Hero bets $3, 1 fold, Button calls $3, SB raises $13.50, 1 fold, Hero calls $11, Button calls $11

Flop: ($43) 3, Q, 6 (3 players)
SB checks, Hero checks, Button checks

Turn: ($43) K (3 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $24.50, 1 fold, SB calls $24.50

River: ($92) 10 (2 players)
SB checks, Hero? ($61.50)

[griffey24]

Given fish is still in pot, I would bet the turn much harder, around $32ish. The turn card is coordinated enough that I expect fish to have a reasonably wide calling range.

If reg is tight, he can show up with AQ, JJ, and maybe KJ if he squeezes that as played. He probably also has AK some minority of the time. I would jam this river for sure.

Only really afraid of AJcc and TT from what I can tell.

[Carroters]

I'd expect him to pretty much fold all worse than Kx a tonne of the time though, do you not think he can have KT QT with some frequency here?

[griffey24]

What do you think, he thinks you have, after you check the flop?

He probably thinks you have KQ only a small % of time after the flop check. He probably thinks you 4bet AK/AA/QQ/KK mostly preflop. So you have either KJ, or a backdoor AJ.

He probably also thinks his line looks weak, after he checks flop, c/c turn. So its conceivable that you would try bluffing him.

Of the hands you're worried about (QT/KT), he folds those pre most of the time, he bets QT on flop some % of the time, and bets KT on turn another % of the time. So the % of the time that he squeezes those hands AND takes this line is pretty small to be concerned about that.

[Carroters]

Thanks griffey, I feel that. This guy's so ABC TAG looking I didn't really consider how f.o.s my line looks and how he prolly wont expect me to have AK here often. I can can easily have missed clubs and air so if he's thinking about my range like this I defo like a value shove.

[sauce123]

uhm, shove river

[sauce123]

against a sb 3betting prob 8% or so here with fish in pot i think it is ok to underbet the river since your hand is very likely good, but hes going to rarely call a jam with worse. so i think a b/c 25 is prob best on 2nd thought