100plo tp vs fish

[meeloche]

Villain is unknown but I'm assuming fish given his buy in amount. This is like my 4th hand at the table or so. I'm getting 2.5:1 on flop and he's likely bad so I'm not sure if I should call or just an easy b/f?

$100.00 USD PL Omaha - Monday, August 02, 11:35:46 ET 2010
Table Vala VIII (Real Money)
Seat 5 is the button
Seat 1: meeloche ( $100.00 USD )
Seat 2: Xr8ed ( $120.65 USD )
Seat 5: mdrflush ( $40.30 USD )
Seat 6: ArctikstaRR ( $32.50 USD )
ArctikstaRR posts small blind [$0.50 USD].
meeloche posts big blind [$1.00 USD].
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to meeloche [ Ts Tc As Qs ]
Xr8ed folds
mdrflush calls [$1.00 USD]
ArctikstaRR calls [$0.50 USD]
meeloche raises [$3.00 USD]
mdrflush calls [$3.00 USD]
ArctikstaRR calls [$3.00 USD]
** Dealing Flop ** [ 3h, Ac, 5d ]
ArctikstaRR checks
meeloche bets [$8.00 USD]
mdrflush raises [$35.40 USD]

[swiggidy]

My gut reaction is snap call and don't think twice about it.

Running this vs any decent hand we're a huge dog. Although there aren't that many hands he could legitimately have, so I would still think folding is bad.

I can't see calling being worse than a small mistake. If we're going to consider b/f here, shouldn't we consider checking the flop? But giving a free card vs a random short stack seems horrible.

[bigspenda73]

what's our equity against a range of sets, 2pr, straights, pr+sd, AQJT, etc...

I don't think it's going to be 30%+, I'd need some bd draws to call this one off

[swiggidy]

ProPokerTools Omaha Hi Simulation
600,000 trials (Randomized)
board: a 3 5
as qs ts tc 33.60% (172,636 wins, 57,967 ties)
5578, AQJT, K456, A578 66.40% (369,397 wins, 57,967 ties)

one set, one splitish 2 pair, one currently better 2 pair, and one pair+oesd is just about the sweet spot for 0eV.

At lower stakes there are some random 889T, or A789 that will shove here too. Running it vs sets, 2 pairs, and straights we're hosed, but he can't always have these ... Right ... Anyone ... (except when he always does)

[bigspenda73]

it's a 3way pot, I think you can take out the rando spew hands

you should also include all the sets combos, hands we know for sure are in their range should be included

[drmcboy]

I don't like betting flop, and I think if you are you should pot so it looks less like they have FE. Getting flatted here is also a bad result.

you could table search them and bet/fold if he's on more than 2.

As played in game I probably call but I don't think we're ever ahead. if we had AK or didn't have the pair I'd commit for sure.

pre flop vs random shorties I think checking is better as raising is no good vs decent shorty. I'd say about 1/3 of them are OK at 200-400plo so try and stop just assuming they are bad, esp because you see those 1/3 a lot more often since they will be 100 tabling.

This is to say, they are sitting there hoping you will come, think they are bad, and double them up with TPmK.

[meeloche]

I don't like betting flop, and I think if you are you should pot so it looks less like they have FE. Getting flatted here is also a bad result.

you could table search them and bet/fold if he's on more than 2.

As played in game I probably call but I don't think we're ever ahead. if we had AK or didn't have the pair I'd commit for sure.

pre flop vs random shorties I think checking is better as raising is no good vs decent shorty. I'd say about 1/3 of them are OK at 200-400plo so try and stop just assuming they are bad, esp because you see those 1/3 a lot more often since they will be 100 tabling.

This is to say, they are sitting there hoping you will come, think they are bad, and double them up with TPmK.

Good post ty.