FD spot?? (10nl)

[chatzilla]

I'm generally pretty bad at playing my draws sure I understand, implied odds, pot odds and fold equity and try to play my draws aggressively and accordingly but I'm kinda unsure of what line to take here

Villain is a wannabe tag reg running 22/15/2.4 (ag factor) in about 60 hands



$0.05/$0.10 No Limit Holdem
PokerStars
8 Players
Hand Conversion Powered by weaktight.com

Stacks:
UTG JohnJewkes ($2.18)
UTG+1 GingGingGing ($18.76)
MP1 opel701 ($7.88)
MP2 PokerManQQ ($4.57)
CO Skipper_C ($9.85)
BTN Ac3sindahole ($9.75)
SB Hero ($10)
BB Espresso 24 ($10.16)

Pre-Flop: ($0.15, 8 players) Hero is SB
6 folds, Hero raises to $0.40, Espresso 24 calls $0.30

Flop: ($0.80, 2 players)
Hero bets $0.50, Espresso 24 raises to $1.20, Hero ????????



Obv I'm blind stealing pre Villain seems somewhat aware to this with an Attempt to steal at 13

I feel he is more likely to show up with a mid pocket pair or Ace or king rag as opposed to a weaker spade draw which i think he might of 3bet pre

stove tells me im a 39% dawg if I range him on 99-22,A9s-A2s,K9s-K2s,A9o-A2o,K9o-K2o

Should I be 4betting? how much? I don't think I will have too much implied odds because i doubt hes stacking off here with tp or a low pp

I'd love to hear your thoughts cheers guys

[Tasha]

I'll give it a go.
Your pot odds are a bit less than 3:1 where as your odds of making the draw are a little over 4:1 so that can't be good.

[JR9477]

I don't mind calling. You've got Pot odds of 3.57, you need 5.22. So that's a 1.652, or $1.16, difference to make up. That's just a half pot bet later on.

I'm interested in seeing how you arrived at his flop raising range, because it seems wide to me.

[nonofyobiz]

isn't he calling 70 into a pot of 180? that's 2.57:1 isn't it?

you can easily make up another $1 to make it break even or better if you hit, especially since he's raising your flop bet.

isn't a re-raise here just a bluff?

as for the range is he really raising you with all those k's? maybe sometimes but not often. does his range even matter here? unless it's 22 your playing to hit your draw and your odds to win are the same. You just need to know how much u can get paid off if you hit. If you put him on a weak range like that then U can decide to bluff your busted draw and get him off a king or a weak ace.

anyways, just my thoughts, but i suck so if I'm out to lunch I'd really like to know haha

[JR9477]

He's calling $.70 into $2.50 ($0.80+$0.50+$1.20)

The range is important to help to decide if it is better to 3bet as a bluff or call to hit the flush, and how to extract the most value on later streets. We should also think about how villain plays his range initially to see if a semi-bluff is the best option.

[NightGizmo]

i don't mind calling. You've got pot odds of 3.57, you need 4.22. So that's a $0.46, difference to make up.

FYP

isn't a re-raise here just a bluff?

It's a semi-bluff. You have a good chance of improving, so you still have equity if the villain calls. But as JR mentioned, you need to consider his range and how plays the hands in his range to decide if you should raise.

Reasons not to raise: if he won't fold many of his hands, or if he will re-raise you with a large portion of his hands.

Reasons to raise: he will fold a decent % of his hands, or if you think he will call and then fold to a bet on the turn.

Without any reads, I would take my nice pot odds and call to see the turn.

[!Luck]

Did you consider folding pre? I think this is/should be std. fold for most pre.

Also, play draws aggressively against opponents that will fold. If you know your opponent is going to call you down with middle pairs and not pay you off when you hit than why not be passive?

!luck

[JR9477]

Thanks NightGizmo. I'm a little out of practice.

[StarGrinder]

Folding pre is perfectly fine but there's a fine line between calling vs shipping since we don't know villain enough to know whether he'll lay down a weak Ax or if he's raising worse flush draws. Personally, I would rather ship it or fold because we really don't know if we can make up for a bad flop call if we make our hand.

[JKDS]

Switch tables

Fold pre

Cbet larger

4b or fold really depends on what you know about his raising range.

[FTR Bad Beat]

Call he is trying to take down this hand without a fight. When he bets again call and then shove on river.

[philly and the phanatics]

Switch tables

Fold pre

Cbet larger

3b or fold really depends on what you know about his raising range.

fyp

[Icanhastreebet]

Fold pre, as played call the raise ffs