5nl FR - TPTK+FD IP 3B Pot

[spoonitnow]

Villain is 15/9, 2% 3b over about 200.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.05 BB (9 handed) - PokerStars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

Button ($4.93)
SB ($5.61)
BB ($5.65)
UTG ($4.93)
UTG+1 ($2.77)
MP1 ($11.93)
Hero (MP2) ($7.78)
MP3 ($8.13)
CO ($1.93)

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with Q, A
3 folds, Hero bets $0.15, 3 folds, SB raises to $0.40, 1 fold, Hero calls $0.25

Flop: ($0.85) 7, J, Q (2 players)
SB bets $0.55, Hero ...

[daviddem]

I don't like calling pre, even IP. We're probably dominated 100% of the time when we call the 3b here against a 15/9 with 2% 3b.

Don't think he bluff cbets this flop with AK, so his range is pretty much QQ+ on the flop, in which case your fold equity is pretty much 0.

So I'd call the flop and re-evaluate turn.

[!Luck]

I fold pre. I prob peel one c/f most turns.

[bigspenda73]

raise/call, flipping with AA, ahead of KK, only hand to worry about is JJ. Get it in well ahead of AxKs, KsQx, etc...

[Vinland]

^ Agree
You probably have some fold equity....enough to make raising +ev imo
I bump it to $2.50 and call anything.

It will bring some variance short term but long term its prob slightly +ev

[Icanhastreebet]

fold pre unless he has some really horrible posflop leaks.

I probably call flop. I just have no clue why we would raise here.

[Donachello]

fold pre unless he has some really horrible posflop leaks.

I probably call flop. I just have no clue why we would raise here.

I agree with this 100%

[bigspenda73]

we don't need FE, we have actual equity

but if we get him to somehow fold a similar strength hand or he calls with a worse hand, then good job us

Board: Qs Js 7s
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 51.616% 47.93% 03.69% 8541 657.00 { AsQc }
Hand 1: 48.384% 44.70% 03.69% 7965 657.00 { JJ+, AQs, AcKs, AdKs, AhKs }

That's pretty much the tightest stack-off range possible, doesn't even include KsQx type stuff.

[rpm]

^ put that way i guess i'm happy to raise/call all in.

[bigspenda73]

I don't hate calling but it shouldn't be with the intentions of folding on later streets

our hand works best here when we realize our full equity, not seeing a river is disastrous imo, i.e. calling flop and folding to a big bet on a blank turn card.

The idea on the flop should be to find a way to get this guy to stack off with hands like AxKs, KsQx, etc... and get him to fold hands we're flipping with, i.e. KK, hell even red Aces. If we can manipulate his stack off range to the following

JJ, QQ, KsKx, AxKs, KsQx, then our equity looks like

Board: Qs Js 7s
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 59.833% 59.59% 00.24% 7669 31.50 { AsQc }
Hand 1: 40.167% 39.92% 00.24% 5138 31.50 { KcKs, KdKs, KhKs, QQ-JJ, AcKs, AdKs, AhKs, KcQd, KsQc, KsQd, KsQh }

which is a very good result, so I'd say make a smallish flop raise, allowing him to jam over with hands he perceives to have decent equity against us.

If you add in some more hands (say we have zero FE against his made hand range) then we look like this, again not a bad result, and you can see our equity barely changes when we put his full (conceivable) range for getting all the money in here

Board: Qs Js 7s
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 59.894% 51.01% 08.88% 11110 1935.00 { AsQc }
Hand 1: 40.106% 31.22% 08.88% 6800 1935.00 { AA, KcKs, KdKs, KhKs, QQ-JJ, AQs, AcKs, AdKs, AhKs, AQo, KcQd, KsQc, KsQd, KsQh }

If I'm ridiculously overrating his 3betting range and it's more like JJ+,AK then we have this equity, still not a mistake to stack off

Board: Qs Js 7s
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 49.207% 49.00% 00.21% 6306 27.00 { AsQc }
Hand 1: 50.793% 50.58% 00.21% 6510 27.00 { AA, KcKs, KdKs, KhKs, QQ-JJ, AcKs, AdKs, AhKs }

Just something to chew on, a little pokerstove pr0n if you will

[spoonitnow]

In before Villain folds AA and calls AK

[Razvan729]

i am not calling pre vs this guy, but as played i raise/call flop cause of this >>>

we don't need FE, we have actual equity

but if we get him to somehow fold a similar strength hand or he calls with a worse hand, then good job us

Board: Qs Js 7s
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 51.616% 47.93% 03.69% 8541 657.00 { AsQc }
Hand 1: 48.384% 44.70% 03.69% 7965 657.00 { JJ+, AQs, AcKs, AdKs, AhKs }

That's pretty much the tightest stack-off range possible, doesn't even include KsQx type stuff.