50NL: Turn TPTK into a bluff?

[leftygrove]

Villain is a good regular at 50NL. He plays something like 18/15 over a 500 hand sample. He's somewhat aggressive, probably a reasonable hand reader.

How do you guys feel about bluffing here? Both the flush and straight draw hit, and he has hands that are stronger than mine in his range that will fold to a certain betsize (hands like sets, overpairs, two pair). But probably every once in a while he's check/calling with a ten, or planning to c/r a flush.

What amount are you betting if you do choose to bluff?

Hero (CO): $50.00
BTN: $40.45
SB: $48.05
BB: $36.80
UTG: $63.85
MP: $98.75

Pre Flop: ($0.75) Hero is CO with J A
UTG raises to $1.50, 1 fold, Hero calls $1.50, 3 folds

Flop: ($3.75) J 8 9 (2 players)
UTG bets $2.50, Hero calls $2.50

Turn: ($8.75) 5 (2 players)
UTG bets $6, Hero calls $6

River: ($20.75) 7 (2 players)
UTG checks, Hero should bluff?

[griffey24]

There is no need to bluff with this hand at all.

Either bet here because you're value betting, and you think he will call worse or just check and take the showdown.

Given he's so tight, I'd probably just check.

[pocketfours]

I definitely like a bluff, $18 is fine. A shove is probably good also, at least at higher stakes. At 50nl a shove might be interpreted as a bet that doesn't want a call.

I would usually fold the turn against this opponent.

[jyms]

I know I should fold this turn a ton, but I tend to call to see what he does on the river. Then when he checks I end up betting too small in a spot that no better hands fold for the price and no worse hands are calling anyway. I don't think if your going to bet much on this river, you have to fold the turn. He's not folding 2 pr for 1/2 pot if you have ever raised a draw on the flop in your life.

[griffey24]

I would usually fold preflop against this opponent.

fyp

AJo is pretty garbage vs such a nitty utg opener.

[kmind]

fyp

AJo is pretty garbage vs such a nitty utg opener.

Agreed. As played I'd fold turn too though. As played again I'd bluff large. So basically what P4 says post and griff pre.

[Toadstool]

I'd bluff here, he folds better hands soooo often, you;re almost never getting called.

[Dragon Slayer]

At first i thought about bluffing here. OP says villain is a little aggro, so probably capable of firing 2 sts given his perceived range. I think its ok to VB here maybe? But could be a hand looking to C/C? I doubt we are gettin CR here. I guess as played Id take the showdown.
But prob folding Pre/Turn usually.

[Juked07]

I think bluffing is giving villain way too much credit for 50NL. Check and expect to be good often enough that bluffing doesn't make sense. Also I think I call the turn pretty happily. I think he has a no pair hand like a 3rd of the time.

[gabe]

"Check and expect to be good often enough that bluffing doesn't make sens"

we aren't good very often though..

[pocketfours]

fyp

I would usually 3bet preflop against this opponent.

fyfyp

One man's garbage is another man's gold.

[lancelott_]

3Bing pre>fcalling, esp from CO, with my standart being a fold pre, unless there is a big fish in the blinds behind. He is tight, and you say he is good, you won`t make much money of this hand flatting pre. Now you are thinking about turning good made hand into a bluff, just beacuse his range is so strong pre and post - whats the reason of calling pre then? you just don`t dominate enouhg Jx (no J9 J8s type of hands in his range). As plays I`d be much more willing to turn something like 87, 9Ts or even JT into a bluff, but not AJ, just because we beat quite a bit of his flop+turn "value" range (KJ QJ JT TT) on the river, and he might not fold QQ+ or 2p/sets on the river at all (or enouhg % time)