25NL - AQo in large pot

[kiwiMark]

And another hand where, results aside, I don't like my play.

Villain is 25/19 over a decent sample, active-ish reg, floated me a couple of times, etc.

$0.10/$0.25 No Limit Holdem
6 Players
Hand Conversion Powered by weaktight.com

Stacks:
UTG lenni66 ($31.10)
UTG+1 achillleas22 ($37.95)
CO ju4n c4rl0s ($24.95)
BTN x_POKEMONS_x ($25)
SB jgizow44 ($26.15)
BB Hero ($25)

Pre-Flop: ($0.35, 6 players) Hero is BB
lenni66 calls $0.25, achillleas22 calls $0.25, ju4n c4rl0s calls $0.25, x_POKEMONS_x calls $0.25, 1 fold, Hero raises to $1.75, lenni66 folds, achillleas22 calls $1.50, ju4n c4rl0s folds, x_POKEMONS_x calls $1.50

Flop: ($5.85, 3 players)
Hero bets $4.25, achillleas22 folds, x_POKEMONS_x calls $4.25

Turn: ($14.35, 2 players)
Hero bets $9.50, x_POKEMONS_x goes all-in $19, $9.5 to Hero ($9.5)?


Preflop: Here I somehow managed to miscount the number of limpers, I'd prefer to make it $2 or even $2.25 out of the big blind. Villain limped behind pre, and now calls my raise in position, so I'm putting him on a range of {22-99, 54s-QJs, 75s-J9s}

Flop: Because of the many limpers and two callers situation preflop the pot on the flop is fairly large. I fire out a cbet, expecting villain to call his Queens, draws, sets, and probably all pocket pairs in the hopes that I'm just firing one barrel as a bluff. {22, 33, 44-99, 54s, QJs, 65ss-JTss, 75ss-J9ss}

Turn: Here I bet again, expecting to get called by {QJs, 22, 33, flush draws} and maybe not even flush draws, as he seems switched on enough to know that he's not getting implied odds to call with a flush draw. Even if he does, I only have 45% equity against that range, making it a bad value bet. Now he shoves, which is something he can more credibly do with flush draws, and sets, so I think it's a call once I've made the bad turn bet (I need less than 20% equity to call profitably)

[surviva316]

preflop sizing is fine imo. once you get to that big of preflop sizing, it's all kinda same diff. 2.00-2.25 might be slightly preferable, but meh.

flop is standard, but the turn really is a crappy spot 'cause this villain is the last person we ever wanted to continue 'cause his range is like sets/draws. obviously there are only 6 combos that reasonably beat us (actually, maybe 8 now that the T hit the turn), and he has lots of combos of straight draws and FD's, but i think b/f'ing's our worst option because the hands we beat are gonna be shoving a lot.

so it seems like b/c'ing, c/shoving and c/c'ing down on non-spade rivers are our only option. i think i like b/c'ing the most, preventing him from checking back his draws and because he has QJs every once in a while

[eragotte]

as long as you called id put this in the category as fine/super standard. if anything else id maybe just bet pot on the flop and shove turn, but its fine as is

[jaytoi]

Could Q10 possibly be in his range here as well?

[spoonitnow]

Any particular reason you decided against checking the turn?

[Micro2Macro]

any particular reason you decided against checking the turn?

thhhhhhhhhhhiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiissssssssssssssssss sss

[kiwiMark]

coz i haz top purr top kickerrrrrr

But yeah, as noted in my analysis, betting the turn here wasn't great. Say I'd checked the turn, and he bets $9.50, do you guys fold, call, or shove over?

[kiwiMark]

I am unhappy with my above question. Allow me to try again:

If I check here, I imagine he's going to bet with a range of something like {22, 33, 54s, 65ss-98ss, 75ss-97ss, J9ss} and check back his one pair hands. I'm like 51% against this range, so it's a fairly easy call, and then I'm probably check/calling non-spade rivers as well, reasoning my hand will be fairly under-repped so he is likely to try to bluff with missed flush draws

Anything that you guys strongly disagree with in there?

[rpm]

i think i like check shoving the turn more than anything else. i'm guessing once you check the turn villain goes "ahha caught you!" and bets like Q9+, all flush draws, sets, and maybe even some floated air because he either thinks he has the best hand with any queen, or can get you to fold with his air or flush draws. he also wont be able to leave himself much of a stack behind when he does this. even if he only bet 2/3 pot he'll be getting a decent price to call your shove with flush draws, straight draws, and Q9,QJ+

check/calling is another option which is also better than betting here i think. when you bet the turn you allow villain to play his hand perfectly because he can shove his nut range and you get a good price, and he can comfortably fold almost any draw because you're very unlikely to be 2barreling air OOP in a bloated pot, and he's not getting the right price to call. the reason i leaned toward c/shove is because check/calling leaves us with a hard river decision, and check shoving exploits villains tendency to float flops.

[Micro2Macro]

I like c/shove

[Erpel]

I like check/shoving the turn.

Also I would discount sets when he opts not to raise the flop.

[jyms]

One of the most important rules of poker is that if you aren't sure what to do if you are raised, don't bet. You need to think about being raised on any street before you bet. It makes these decisions much easier. You don't need to think about what top do when he folds because it ends the hand, and you don't need to think about a call because it will end the street and another card will change the hand. What would you have done if you thought you might have gotten raised here?

[eragotte]

I think c/shove the turn loses values.

in villains shoes if you have As5s do you bet the turn when checked to?

[kmind]

Villain will never have A5s though. At first I was all for b/c but thinking about how tight villain's range here most likely I think b/c and c/s is close here. I hate being raised here but you obv. can't b/f.

[eragotte]

villain limped after 4 ppl then called 6 more bb's... i guess what i say assumes he sucks despite op saying he is okay. i cant even think of a hand id do this with and can only put him on something thats stupid and suited in which case i want to bet his draw. would he seriously do this with 33 lmao...

[kiwiMark]

villain limped after 4 ppl then called 6 more bb's... i guess what i say assumes he sucks despite op saying he is okay. i cant even think of a hand id do this with and can only put him on something thats stupid and suited in which case i want to bet his draw. would he seriously do this with 33 lmao...

What would you do with 33 in villain's shoes, pre?

[kiwiMark]

And yeah, Jyms, point taken, anticipating future action (both on the current street and on future ones) is something I need to start working on. You're right, had I fully considered the prospect of his raising this would've been an easy check at the time. (Regardless I think it's a check, but the point stands).

[eragotte]

What would you do with 33 in villain's shoes, pre?

fold.

[kiwiMark]

Fold when you have position in a multiway pot the first time, or fold when you have position against two 100bb stacks, one of which is repping a very tight range iso'ing out of the BB?

[eragotte]

i know you're trying to be a smart ass but I fold to the 7 bb raise obviously

If I were to call 6bb for a chance to win 100bb I'd be getting ~ 16 to 1 on the call and have a 10 to 1 at hitting a set on the flop. When you hit a set as well I lose my stack we will say 1% of the time, 90% of the time I lose 6bb

-6bb*(0.90) + -100bb(0.01) + xbb(0.09) = 0

i.e. to break-even he needs to get 71bb's on average when he flops a set and you dont. (consider that you suck out 10% of the time that means he needs you to stack off over 80% of the time where you do not flop a better set then him)

and considering how you played this AQ that clearly is not happening.

so yes I fold. always.

[kiwiMark]

i know you're trying to be a smart ass but I fold to the 7 bb raise obviously

If I were to call 6bb for a chance to win 100bb I'd be getting ~ 16 to 1 on the call and have a 10 to 1 at hitting a set on the flop. When you hit a set as well I lose my stack we will say 1% of the time, 90% of the time I lose 6bb

-6bb*(0.90) + -100bb(0.01) + xbb(0.09) = 0

i.e. to break-even he needs to get 71bb's on average when he flops a set and you dont. (consider that you suck out 10% of the time that means he needs you to stack off over 80% of the time where you do not flop a better set then him)

and considering how you played this AQ that clearly is not happening.

so yes I fold. always.

I'm not being a smart-ass, I genuinely don't know which time you'd fold, as both of them seem horrible to me.

A couple of points to consider:

1. Do you ever call with 33 to a raise with position. ie. if somebody opened to 4bb in MP, no other callers, would you call on the button with 33? (Yes, I understand the large difference between 4bb and 6bb, I'm just curious)

2. There are two 100bb stacks in before you in this particular hand.

3. "the way I played this AQ that clearly is not happening" - what about how I played AQ suggests that that's not happening?

[kmind]

From experience, that type of villain will limp behind small PP AND call an iso raise. They will also limp behind Axs/lower suited broadways BUT fold to an iso raise. This is my view. I'm not saying they are right for doing so I just see it happen a lot.

[eragotte]

From experience, that type of villain will limp behind small PP AND call an iso raise. They will also limp behind Axs/lower suited broadways BUT fold to an iso raise. This is my view. I'm not saying they are right for doing so I just see it happen a lot.

yes i mostly agree with that

A couple of points to consider:

1. Do you ever call with 33 to a raise with position. ie. if somebody opened to 4bb in MP, no other callers, would you call on the button with 33? (Yes, I understand the large difference between 4bb and 6bb, I'm just curious)

2. There are two 100bb stacks in before you in this particular hand.

3. "the way I played this AQ that clearly is not happening" - what about how I played AQ suggests that that's not happening?

1. I would definitely call 33 for 4bb verse almost any opponent IP. The difference here is that it is 6bb more and also that your range is very strong opening from where you did (which you correctly analyzed) so I would not expect to be able to steal the pot without hitting a set, or by taking a float flop-raise turn line like I often would to pick up extra EVs when normally making a call with it.

2. yes but that doesn't help that much to me, say you open and the next dude calls, with 33 on say a 3 8 Q board I'd barely feel ahead. Your getting oversetted more and when you try to get money in verse two people you look super strong and wont get it in vs as light a range as often.

3. You are questioning the hand, if you were super happy to get it all in here all the time with top pair top kicker he would have more justification of set mining and planning to get paid off. i.e. if you were a loose aggro donk

[LawDude]

Philosophically, once your flop bet is called aren't you concerned about controlling the size of the pot against a decent opponent with nothing more than top pair?

If villain were a loose-passive, I'd say go ahead and take him to value town on all 3 streets. But this one is not.

[kiwiMark]

your range is very strong opening from where you did (which you correctly analyzed) so I would not expect to be able to steal the pot

if you were super happy to get it all in here all the time with top pair top kicker he would have more justification of set mining

Which way do you want it?

[eragotte]

AQ is part of a strong range. You hit top pair. Both.

[kiwiMark]

I still understand the quotes above, respectively, to mean:

1. Villain (kiwiMark) has a strong range so is not folding often enough for this to be profitable.
2. Villain (kiwiMark) is folding too often for this to be profitable.

My bad if I'm misunderstanding something, but I'm gonna need some clarification.

[eragotte]

hmm i see what you are saying

1. villain kiwimark has a strong range and is not folding enough for a bluff to be profitable. on the flop if i dont hit, i dont think i can profitably get you off your hand, when i put more money in the pot i have very little equity so i would not try to bluff you in this situation therefore i make -EV when i call the pre bet and fold the flop

2. Villain kiwimark is folding too often (>20% of the time) for me to call to set mine. This >20% however is not enough for me to try and bluff because when I have 33 no set I have a lot less equity and need you to fold well over 50% of the time for it to be profitable to bluff.

[Donachello]

wtffff are you arguing about. When you call to setmine you want them to have the nuts preflop every time. How is this not profitable. Assuming that you need to make like 11 or even 12x what you put into the pot with your small PP to make it profitable there's no way this isn't a snap call with one (talking about the villain holding 33 here obviously). There's 4.25 of dead money already in the pot. You call 1.75 and need to make 19.25(11x) 21(12x) to make it BE/profitable. You can make a maximum of 25 from two different villains here who are supposedly repping pretty strong ranges. You only need to get 15 of the remaining about 46 dollars into the pot for this to be a smart call.

Assuming that they have strong ranges that they want to protect vs. draws you can assume a pretty large Cbet ie. the 4.25 that mark did. If you choose to call, even if the other dude folds you now only need one more legitimate street of value. And hell, if the other guy calls then you can even shove over the turn cbet and have both fold and still make calling pre a good call with your 33.

@ the hand I think you're kinda in too deep to fold here but meh. It can't be much but QT or sets imo unless he weirdly has like J9ss. I agreed with the check on the turn and not sure whether folding or shoving would be the best move at that point. Guess that'd be a table dynamic thing. He can't seriously ever expect you to be folding here assuming he has a brain.

[kiwiMark]

^ Good post imo

[eragotte]

When you call to setmine you want them to have the nuts preflop every time. How is this not profitable

true, cold call 4bets with em

^ Good post imo

youre stubborn and doomed to fail, gl


Also, if you are arguing its easily profitable for him to call then you f'd up. both players cannot be playing +EV on one hand. "of course he should call ill pay him off every time duh!!!" okay congrats.

[kiwiMark]

/me sighs

Charming - willing to accept at least that we're both stubborn, or not so much?

So...

Let's assume we're calling only to hit our set, we will fold the flop if we miss, regardless of action. I'm also going to put our chances of hitting a set as 11%, if the extra 1% bothers you, let me know.

-1.5*0.89 + -24.75*0.01 + x*0.10 = $0

x= 15.825

There's already 4.35 in the pot, so I need to make, on average, $11.50 more, from two villains, both of which started with $25, and one of which is repping a tight range. So you need to make an average of 56 big blinds per time.

If we're on the button, MP raises to 4bb (with a wider range than what I'm repping in the other hand, thus cutting down our implied odds), then the equation is something like:


-1.0*0.89 + -24.75*0.01 + x*0.10 = $0

=$11.40

Which is, lo and behold, 56 big blinds, from one villain, with a wider range.

[Dex]

If we can put hands like QT in villain's range, although I'm not convinced we can, then I think we can put in stuff like QJ that thought the turn was shove or fold. And if QJ is there, I guess stuff like JsTs or Ts9s could be too.

I'd like the merits of c/c or c/s turn more if we could be sure that villain will bet the turn with QJ or TsXs. As it is, if we think those hands can be in villain's range, then I'm bet/calling the turn although I don't expect to make a lot of money off this spot.

[Donachello]

true, cold call 4bets with em

wat? where in this hand is the 4bet? Stop being a moron. /thread.

[Erpel]

I am disturbed by the focus on making a hand and winning a showdown.

While 25x (or whatever) is a useful rule of thumb for deciding to play a low pocket pair for set value... it's just that. A rule of thumb.

EVERY TIME we put money in the middle that we don't have to we need a clear idea why it is profitable to do so. A clear idea. Just calling with 25x money behind is not good enough.

As has been mentioned when we call ONLY for set value we want our opponent to have AA every time so he'll stack off with an overpair when we hit our set. But we don't call only for set value. Or if we do - we're stupid.

First off - how often do we actually manage to stack off when we hit our set? Not that often tbh. Maybe 1 in 5? And of those we lose some. How many times do we take it down on flop (with 0 post-flop bets) or turn (with just 1 post-flop bet) after we make our set? In those situations we are not realising the implied odds that we assumed were there when we decided to call pre-flop.

I'm not saying not to call with pocket pairs pre-flop. I'm saying - when you call with pocket pairs pre-flop don't rest on your laurels and assume it's going to be automatically profitable when you hit your set and stack off. In all likelihood - IT WON'T.

Plan to steal. At least some of the time.

[eragotte]

^ my point exactly, you worded it better than me though. In this case I feel button caller cannot realistically expect to steal profitably vs your strong range, but you wont stack off with worse enough either.


and just realize that if 4 people limp into a pot and you raise oop with the opinion that any one of them can call with a low pocket pair as a +EV decision against you then why the f are you raising? There isn't enough dead money for both of you to be making +EV plays.

[Numbr2intheWorld]

You played this perfectly (besides preflop, need to make it bigger but you acknowledged that). Now call happily.

Checking the turn planning on shoving given the float read is alright i just feel like players usually check behind draws and bad hands when they have an awkward stacksize behind.

[ljove]

Call.He is in position.TQ or pocket pairs are hands he will raise preflop.Call and hope for best

[DrakaZ]

I would bet a bit more pre because you are OOP against many limpers so I would raise to 2.25$. As played, I think that calling his push is not a mistake but it depends on reads you have on vilain.