The problem with allin EV

[TonyB73]

This is a graph of my first ~1,700 hands at 100NL at Full Tilt:





So what do you think when you see a graph like this? Something like, "OMG, I'm like 3BI under EV on allins in only 1,700 hands, I'm running so bad, blah, blah, blah ...", right?

In case you haven't noticed, even running so far under EV my winrate here is about 15ptBB/100. There is no way I am that much of a winner at 100NL.

So what's going on? I've had some good cards, I've hit some flops, I've hit some draws at the right times and I've found some serious donkeys to stack off light against me. Yes I've had KK busted by Ax twice AIPF and AA<AK AIPF, all for very big pots, but on the whole there's no escaping the fact that I'm running pretty damn well.

The point is, allin EV is just one part of "luck", and you can easily run hot while your EV graph goes down. So please don't use it as an excuse for why you're "running so bad".

[Micro2Macro]

admittedly there's like $1200ish worth of extreme fuuuuuu monkey tilt going on here (i.e oh hey i'll just shove pre with a7 here ez game), result of some 16+ tabling >4hr sessions w/o breaks etc. and also checking how much money I'm down each day.

[EasyPoker]

This may be completely irrelevant etc, but what if an all-in is done on the river? Is it down to luck as much then?

[XTR1000]

lol 1.7k hands

[spoonitnow]

I really want to lock this thread, but that's probably because I'm a bit grumpy and just woke up and am easily irritated at the moment. All-in EV is just there to show you what your Sklansky Bucks are in all-in situations with cards left to come. It has its uses, but is obviously not the end-all of deciding if you've ran good or bad or not. Over large samples, it can help you decide if you're actually beating the game or not, and there are other uses as well, but I agree that it can also be used in negative ways.

[Micro2Macro]

lol 1.7k hands

also this.

also, something to keep in mind is looking at AIEV, especially short term, can induce subtle tilt and stuff and just make you play differently.

the best thing you can do for yourself is just ignore it altogether (albeit difficult), it's probably the most effective course of action.

[Gobbatino]

I wasn't really in the habit of looking at AI-EV too much, but this thread made me curious. I added up the EV of all my hands from 5NL through 25NL across a few different sites and I'm currently 47 buy ins behind in ~75k hands. I run like poop?

[Dragon Slayer]

You would prob be fine if you never looked at your "all in EV" ever again. Just know if you lost monies or won monies, do you really feel that you played well? If so then your all good. It all works out eventually.

[Jason]

I was recently thinking about this very topic and I agree with your sentiments, although, I'm not sure if your graph or any other visual representation or verbal description can truly do the idea justice. The sample size of any graph isn't really important for this idea. What is important is that +EV graphs are very incomplete pieces of information and there are a lot of ways to "run good" or "run bad". Those +EV graphs are just the easiest stat within arm's reach.

How you run when the money gets all-in IS obviously important, but so are a lot of things. How often are you getting good hands like AA and KK? How often are your good hands running against other good, 2nd best hands like when you have AA and they have KK? Or, you flop the nut flush and they flop the 2nd nuts? Or you get top set and they get 2nd set? How often are you hitting the flop or your draws? We've all gone through periods of getting AK and getting nothing time and time again and having to fold. Or your suited connectors neither suit nor connect, but sometimes you run good and they do. What about table selection? Sometimes you get a drooler just giving his money away and you run bad and can't capitalize, but sometimes you run good and do. Sometimes you don't get it all-in before the river, but plan it street by street so you WILL be all-in by the river and villain sucks out on the river to beat you, but you have too much invested to fold and their range is wide enough to commit with worse, so it's correct to finish your plan but you still lose and it doesn't show up in your EV graph that you lost or you won if you got lucky.

I recently had a 3 way pot all-in against a short-stack for 30bb and against a full stack for 100bb. I had KK versus the ss's AA but the full stack had KQs. I statistically would have netted 40bb after losing to the ss but winning against the full stack had the &#37;'s held up, but mister KQs luckboxed a flush to beat us both. In HEM, I was a 9% favorite, but realistically I was a 80% favorite or so to net money.

All-in EV is not a very useful stat EXCEPT if you have a large enough sample size and could prove that you are getting your money in good more often than bad, that's usually an indicator of a good player.

[kiwiMark]

Did anybody (with the exception of Jason) actually read the OP?

[Gobbatino]

Did anybody (with the exception of Jason) actually read the OP?

Ya, the TLDR version of the OP is: Being under AI EV does not mean you're running badly in a vacuum.

That is true. It is only a good indication of how you're running in all in situations, as the name states. So if after a few session you feel like you're running like shit and you check your AI EV, it will tell nothing more than whether or not you are indeed running like shit in AI EV.

However, if you're running 30-40 buy-ins behind AI EV in like 50k hands you can assume you've been pretty unlucky and the graph will prove the fact. So you can come vent on your blog/tilt forum/etc.

It's easy to say AI EV doesn't matter when you go on nice heaters and are behind AI EV. It's not so easy when you are on a downswing, having to fold loads without a showdown, losing loads without going all in AND on top having a fucked up AI EV graph.

Grats OP on a very successful move to 100NL, though. Hope your heater continues.