Turning JJ into a bwuff. Multiway, 3-bet pot.

[Carroters]

3 bettor is 9/9 and yet to 3-bet over 20 hands.
The other dude is a 16/12 Nit.

I figured this was an awesome spot to jus fire turn and river as a bluff because they so rarely ever have an ace. KK/QQ is probably a good sized part of the BU's range and obviously what I'm trying to fold out. I feel he should fold this by the river if not to my turn bet.

I doubt the other dude has an ace too often after checking 2 streets. If he calls the turn bet, I likely wont fire the river.

I think my line looks exactly like AQ, AK to these guys when I bet this turn and shove river vs BU.

How does this sound?

No-Limit Hold'em, $0.25 BB (6 handed) - Hold'em Manager Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

Button ($25)
SB ($25.45)
BB ($2.75)
UTG ($26.40)
Hero (MP) ($38.90)
CO ($24.40)

Preflop: Hero is MP with J, J
1 fold, Hero bets $1, CO calls $1, Button raises $3.25, SB calls $3.15, 1 fold, Hero calls $2.25, 1 fold

Flop: ($11) A, 6, 4 (3 players)
SB checks, Hero checks, Button checks

Turn: ($11) 2 (3 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $6.30

[Vinland]

What amount are you betting on river if BTN calls turn and SB folds? (I think pot would be around $23-$24?).

Do you have enough history/reads on him to know if he puts a lot of A's in your range to make this bluff +EV?

[Carroters]

I don't think there are many villains at 25NL who run a tight preflop game that are happy to stack off with KK QQ here in a 3 way pot.

I'm obv shoving the river if BU calls turn.

[inV1NCEble]

Seems a pretty good line imo. I would bet turn bigger however. If you don't agree I would very much like to hear your reasoning for betsize.

[Carroters]

I bet turn smaller so that I can set up a scary sized river shove. If he's set on calling one street with KK/QQ which I think he sometimes might, then I need to ensure he doesn't feel too pot comitted to talk himself into a call on the river.

[inV1NCEble]

I like that idea

[eragotte]

i dont like it, you have no history on villain, sometimes ill 3bet squeeze with AXs then check in that situation even on a drawy board, not a lot of draws in your range since Ad is gone and its a d draw, id then call you on the turn and quite possibly snipe u off on the river although you could be betting me off AX here and there...


this thread is why i love checking behind with a weak A top pair...

[Donachello]

It's kind of tough because if both call then the pot is like 30 and they will each only have 15 behind. Which on your shove gives about 3:1 on their money. Also, are you saying you have 0 showdown value? If that's the case then the bluff needs to work on both a huge majority of the time. Although the checking does seem to indicate a hand like QQ or KK for the 3bettor, but what about the SB?

[clvacva]

If SB calls I won't bluff the river.(don't think OOP nit will c/c QQ)
If BU calls then I bluff river

[surviva316]

i'm not nearly as certain as you seem to be that BU doesn't have an A. would he really bet something like AsTs 100% of the time, especially if he also has inclination to believe SB is a nit. i'd like it if both players had checked twice, but i think BU's gonna show up with an A here a lot.

btw, preflop might be a vomit/fold. anyone else have thoughts on this?

EDIT: I PHAIL! didn't notice BU's bet sizing and the fact that CO is left to act. i'd flat, but i'm pretty much set mining here.