value bet the nuts or shove?

[rong]

If you kinda stumble upon the nuts by the time you're on the river, and as such the pot is really small, say 100 bb stacks an 12 bb in the pot, are you better off shoving every time rather than say an 8 bb value bet?

If we assume say 1 in 2 value bets are called, thats an extra 4 bb per time, so if even 1 in 25 100 bb shoves are called it is more +ev. And shoving over such a small pot looks like you don't know what you're doing, which surely must help lead to people calling.

Now perhaps the above figures aren't realistic, but I'm wondering if perhaps there is a particular min stack and stack to pot ratio that would make the above concept true.

Any thoughts?

[JKDS]

We size value bets by determining how often we are called (based on how we think villain plays their range) compared to how much we bet.

If we have the nuts in a $100 pot, and assume that when we bet $50 we get called by 80% of hands villain could have, when we bet $100 we get called by 50% of hands, and when we bet $1000 we get called by 10% of hands, how much should we bet and why?

If that is clear, the only decision comes from how often villain will pay you off when you bet one amount over the other, and you determine that from reads/ranges/flop texture/etc

[rong]

I always thought value bet meant that it made sense for villain to call as they had invested x amount of money so far so even with a mediocre hand is worth them calling just in case they were ahead. ie it was still good value to call from villains perspective as they still just might win.

Considering I've been playing poker for a long time it amazes me how bad my grasp of terminology is.

What you just said makes sense, I just quite often see people shoving into small pots and I'm wondering if there is any sense as at lower levels people do call with all sorts.

But I guess my question/statement is that perhaps the bet with optimum value is shoving in these situations nearly every time if the pot is small, stack large and you have no read to think villain is particularly smart as the odd call you get will pay off enough to justify the folds.

And WTF is up with the little window you write in that it won't stay scrolled down while you type. Doing my nut in!

[eragotte]

you just did the math yourself... there is not a clear cut answer just maximize expected value... also consider that the times he calls maybe he would have reraised your value bet thus making it no gain when you shove and youre losing all the other little 4bbs

[JKDS]

Well theres 3 main types of bets
1) for value
2) as a bluff
3) for protection

Norman Chad and other WSOP announcers just happen to use the term "value bet" exclusively to small bets from nut hands whenever they possibly can.

As in when to do it... you could just shove randomly without thinking about ranges and have minor success when they accidentally have a hand that can call, but lose a bit when they dont.

A blind man could also haphazardly cross the street and have some minor success when the city bus happens to miss him, but a minor failure when he survives a car crash and sues the guy that hit him.

Both scenarios are vastly improved by using you're head right? Ie, the blind man could just use the information available to him and wait for the sound of the "walking man signal"...increasing the chances that the city bus misses him.

Just like you could increase the chance of succeeding by thinking about their range.

[rong]

Yeah ok, this whole range thing had been on my todo list of learning for a while. I struggle to put anyone on any range, and certainly don't do the stoving I should when I do occasionally have a vague idea.

[Beck]

At very very low stakes shoving is good because many players think you are full of it and will call with even middle pair. I have seen it happen. But realistically all I did is assume that the the villian is loose and will call with a wide range on the river. That is generally the case at micro stakes which is why I can make that general assumption, and what I used to do when I was at that limit.

As you get better, move up in stakes, the players get better as well, and picking their range and betting accordingly is needed. IE: When you have four of a kind, and you put them on a range of full house you can try shoving (very loose example) and still get called. or when you have 2 pair and their range is just top pair you can make a small value bet to extract a few more dollars from the hand. A good player is able to get a range of cards villian has, narrow it down by the river, and extract the most value whenever possible.

[Hoopy]

Yeah ok, this whole range thing had been on my todo list of learning for a while. I struggle to put anyone on any range, and certainly don't do the stoving I should when I do occasionally have a vague idea.

Don't worry about defining detailed ranges initially, just try your best - putting opponents on ranges when you are not in the hand is a good way to start.

Starting by thinking about the width of your opponents range is good - say a station calls your cbet on a KQ5 two tone board, his range is super wide - counter to that a weak-tight player c/c'ing a flop bet then leading for full pot when the flush draw completes means his range is very narrow.

Of course these are generalizations but it's useful to do.