Okay spot to ship it or just a spewtard move?

[Donachello]

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $0.02 BB (5 handed) - Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

Hero (MP) ($2.47)
Button ($4.88)
SB ($2)
BB ($1.17)
UTG ($0.92)

Preflop: Hero is MP with J, A
BB calls $0.02, 1 fold, Hero bets $0.10, Button calls $0.09, 1 fold, BB calls $0.08

Flop: ($0.32) 6, 3, K (3 players)
Button bets $0.32, 1 fold, Hero raises to $0.80, Button calls $0.48

Turn: ($1.92) 10 (2 players)
Button checks, Hero bets $1.57 (All-In), Button calls $1.57

River: ($5.06) 5 (2 players, 1 all-in)

Total pot: $5.06 | Rake: $0.33

After the flop it was painfully obvious this very nitty player had a king. I thought something like KQs or even KQo with Q of spades since there was no 3bet preflop. I figured the shove might get him to fold his king as I was the PFR. Did I spewdonk?

[surviva316]

i think if you raise the flop more, then you don't need to concern yourself with barrelling him off of weaker parts of his range. a dollar or more on the flop, and take your free card on the turn, imo.

[kdawgy80]

I'm not a 6m person, so there are going to be much better opinions below this one, but I'll give it a whirl. After the flop, against Kx, you're 45% to hit your flush or an A. If he's holding AK, you're 37%. So you're not favored but it's not that bad. But I also didn't factor in the chance he has a spade or two. I see what you're saying with the reraise post flop, but anything that has you pwnd isn't folding (KJ+, set). I don't think he's following you down this path with midpair (TT, 99, etc) or anything with a flush draw. I guess 67s with the draw is a possibility but you're representing a K or set pretty well. He gives you shit pot odds with the pot sized bet on the flop and from there I think you have to fold given we believe he's got a king and you're not getting good odds.

ed: sp.

[Donachello]

i think if you raise the flop more, then you don't need to concern yourself with barrelling him off of weaker parts of his range. a dollar or more on the flop, and take your free card on the turn, imo.

True, I realize now looking at it that .80 is just barely a 2x raise and I probably should have made it .90+. Also I wasn't putting AK, KK, or AA in his range seeing as he simply limped after my PFR.

So, and someone can check my math cause I'm pretty shoddy at doing quick poker odds, I have 3 aces and 9 spades (or 8 if I put Q of spades in his range). So.... I have 12 out of 46 cards that will improve my hand or just over 25% and with two streets to catch one on it improves my odds more. Once the turn hits I pick up an additional 3-4 outs because a queen gives me a straight. I'm not positive on what my total equity is at this point though. :S

[surviva316]

one problem with putting villain is that the hand history is a little messed up. it says that the BU flatted and then donk lead the flop, which is impossible, since he's last to act on the flop. the turn also says that villain c/c'ed which he can't do on the BU.

also, you say "this nitty player" but giving us some PF stats + postflop reads would be helpful for knowing whether he flats PF w KK+/AK, knowing how he reacts to flop raises, determining how strong his flop donk is.

[microgrinder]

B/3B AI on flop, if I'm reading HH right. I shove turn if he flats on flop.

[spoonitnow]

OH GEE ANOTHER HAND WHERE SOMEONE POSTED A BUNCH OF SHIT WITHOUT PUTTING HIS OPPONENT ON A RANGE OR POSTING STATS OR READS OR WTF

[Donachello]

OH GEE ANOTHER HAND WHERE SOMEONE POSTED A BUNCH OF SHIT WITHOUT PUTTING HIS OPPONENT ON A RANGE OR POSTING STATS OR READS OR WTF

[quote="Donachello"]After the flop it was painfully obvious this very nitty player had a king. I thought something like KQs or even KQo with Q of spades since there was no 3bet preflop.[quote]

There's a reason I am playing 1c2c which happens to coincide with not owning PT or HEM. so... kindly DIAF

[Hoopy]

Hand history is messed up, can you repost it?

As played if he's nitty then he only has has a decent king by the turn (sets get it in).

Board: 6s 3h Ks Td
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 31.648% 31.65% 00.00% 557 0.00 { AsJs }
Hand 1: 68.352% 68.35% 00.00% 1203 0.00 { K8o+ }

So you are not a huge dog but you need some fold equity for this to work.

For EV=0

0=f(1.92)-(1-f)((0.31x5.06)-(0.69x1.57))
0=1.92f-(1-f)(0.48)
0.48=2.4f
f=0.20 or 20%

Very little needed (1 in 5 times he needs to fold), if he still has K9/8 he'll dump it some of the time.

Raise more ($1) on the flop, if he flats he's very likely to give you a free card to 14 outs on the turn.

[Outlaw]

Just shove the flop and don't even watch or care about the results.

[JKDS]

Turn: shove might be breakeven, but just checking and getting it in on favorable rivers is def +ev

flop: im not very excited at all. against someone who was the pfr'er than i like it...but we have someone who called in the small blind and decided to donk for full pot against 2 opponents in what are normally loose passive games. His range is obv Kx or better, and probably weighted towards KQ or better. Hes likely never folding, and shoving is only break even (or maybe slightly +ev) against the weaker part of the range, while its for sure -ev against the stronger part. Factor in that this guy isnt exactly gonna fold to a raise and we have a bad situation. Fold it seems.

[Pelion]

i think if you raise the flop more, then you don't need to concern yourself with barrelling him off of weaker parts of his range. a dollar or more on the flop, and take your free card on the turn, imo.

A doller more on the flop and we only have a gaybet left on the turn (which we have to call anyway if he shoves). As played is muuuuuch better imo. Having said that, he still has to be capable of folding a pair, and a lot of players at these stakes wont be.