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you might be HEAVILY overestimating the value of the AF stat. let's say villain is 100/40/.28 and never folds a hand post flop ever. he pretty much check/calls everything. all his AF means is that villain calls almost 4 times as much as he bets. So without doing any kind of extreme heavy lifting in the way of math, this hypothetical villain can prolly bet as wide as TPNK+, and draws of 8 outs or better (and probably even MPGK hands) every single time on every single street and still be calling 4 times as often as he's betting. that's a complete guesstimate, and an unrealistic scenario, but you get the idea.
Agression FREQUENCY is the number where if it's deathly low, THEN you have a certainty that villain just never bets. ALLLL that being said, even if his AFq is deathly low, he can only bet TPNK+ hands and maybe some semi bluffs every once in a while and bet nothing else and call way too much and still see enough streets with a weak enough range to achieve that passivity.
so all that being said, making some assumptions on villain because we weren't given many reads:
Text results appended to pokerstove.txt
305,910 games 0.011 secs 27,810,000 games/sec
Board: 8c 5s 4s
Dead:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 63.656% 62.56% 01.09% 191386 3345.00 { QcQs, QdQs, QhQs }
Hand 1: 36.344% 35.25% 01.09% 107834 3345.00 { AcAh, AcAs, AdAs, KcKd, KcKh, KcKs, QQ-88, 55-44, AsKs, AsQs, AsJs, AsTs, A8s, K8s, Q8s, J8s, T8s, 98s, 85s+, 76s, 65s, 54s, A8o, K8o, Q8o, J8o }
he's prolly not folding often to your raise once he bets, so i think his betting range~his continuing range.
other points: why are you bought in for 65bbs at 2nl? why do we have no reads on such a loose villain after 230 friggin hands? that last point is prolly the biggest leak in this hand, and why it's so unnecessarily difficult to put villain on a hand
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I called but aren't we supposse to fold this?
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Originally Posted by littleogre
