10nl 6m QJs vs aggro moran with history turn situation

[dranger7070]

Villain is 46/40/5 with a 36% 3bet PF

http://weaktight.com/1810965

I needed 23% equity to call the shove, I had ~28% so its a clear call, the raise is pretty standard imo. We have a fairly aggressive history together so I think its likely he's bet/folding turn a lot or shoving a lot too if he thinks I'm doing it with a pure FD with either hands that have some equity (FDs, Ax + GSSD, Kx, Qx) but I doubt its with very many PURE bluffs.

Thoughts?

Ant said in IRC afterwards he didn't like it much since I don't have much FE vs him, but I can't imagine this play is that bad. I hate just calling again when he bets so big since I'm not really getting the odds, and I'll take the extra EV of a shovel with 14 outs.

[JKDS]

i honestly have no idea how a 100nl-er thinks...if we pretended he played 10nl, id say that his range here is fairly tight just cuz he'd be playing oop vs a known ftr guy that plays back at him a bunch...in which case i cant see him folding much.

youre range is pretty transparent as well, cuz there isnt much youre going to be calling flop and raising turn with, like its made up of mostly draws imo. kings weaker than KQ dont really play this way, you raise two pair and sets on the flop at least some percent of the time so thats discounted, you 3b the stronger kings pre fairly often so those are gone as well, and whats left is draws and bluffs...and mr 100nl has to be aware of this

[clvacva]

If you have aggro history he aint folding a King.

Also I would imagine villain being OOP he is not betting the turn with a lot of weak hands. Worst he might have is KT/K9,5c6c,AcXc,

seems pretty spewy

[kmind]

I can't see any option other than calling being best here vs. this type of player and esp if he's a 100nler. Turn card is great for him to double barrel if he knows you are a reg. Raising creates an abundance of dead money with a range that's surely behind when getting stacks in.

[kmind]

I'd also RR flop

[bigspenda73]

you should raise flop and be fairly happy to get 100bb's in there, obv. a lot more thrilled w/ the nfd but the 2nd NFD in some bvb against an aggro player you have history with, pretty decent spot.

[JKDS]

also table select better

/joke

[PlayToWin]

Thoughts?

I suck so bad, I shouldn't even comment, but I'm a little tipsy atm.

So, he bet PF, Flop, and makes a good sized bet on the Turn. I don't understand the reraise here with a K on board.

[dranger7070]

General concesus = I'm a feesh and should have RR flop, but idk. I felt better getting it in with 14 outs and not so comfy with 9 outs. :/

Guess I'll stop being a moran.

[kmind]

But why? 9 outs on the flop > 14 outs on the turn. Tbh I was thinking of r/f flop but spenda is better.

[surviva316]

both your FE and your absolute equity are better on the flop than they are on the turn and you're getting paid off more when you hit on the turn if you raise flop than if you don't and it's better for balance against someone where balance actually matters, sooo.

as played, i like flatting turn. if you think he's barreling this card with any kind of frequency (which he prolly is), then we have SD value and most the cards he'd consider triple barreling hit us anyway. if we don't think he's barreling very often, so we're always behind here, then you likely don't have much FE.

EDIT: btw, i lol'ed when i saw the aggrotard was antman

[spoonitnow]

Raising the turn is pretty bad

[Outlaw]

What is his ATS? If its over say 25%, why are you not 3-betting pf here?

[dranger7070]

Raising the turn is pretty bad

Thanks for the AWESOME insight spoon.

It's not like that hasn't been mentioned 14 times already.

[surviva316]

What is his ATS? If its over say 25%, why are you not 3-betting pf here?

i'd much rather 3b Q2s here than QJs. we're ahead of his range IP, so it's obv +EV to call. 3b'ing essentially allows him to play his range perfectly because he's never flatting with a hand that's dominated and Antman is capable of 4b'ing worse hands.

i also think it's better for shania to flat because this is such a good spot to profitably 3b with so many hands we can't otherwise continue with that flatting with hands like QJo and 87s and bluffing with garbage like Q2s and 98o keeps our range the widest and most balanced without having an exploitably high bluffing frequency.

[Dex]

as played, i like flatting turn. if you think he's barreling this card with any kind of frequency (which he prolly is), then we have SD value and most the cards he'd consider triple barreling hit us anyway. if we don't think he's barreling very often, so we're always behind here, then you likely don't have much FE.

Yeah, this. I think we have too much showdown value vs our opinion of this player to raise the turn and remove air or worse hands from his range for putting more money in.

[kmind]

What is his ATS? If its over say 25%, why are you not 3-betting pf here?

i'd much rather 3b Q2s here than QJs. we're ahead of his range IP, so it's obv +EV to call. 3b'ing essentially allows him to play his range perfectly because he's never flatting with a hand that's dominated and Antman is capable of 4b'ing worse hands.

i also think it's better for shania to flat because this is such a good spot to profitably 3b with so many hands we can't otherwise continue with that flatting with hands like QJo and 87s and bluffing with garbage like Q2s and 98o keeps our range the widest and most balanced without having an exploitably high bluffing frequency.

QFT

I'm thinking of making a long theory post on basically exactly what you are talking with shania and stuff. Hopefully not all of BC already understands this (I def admit I don't completely)

[Micro2Macro]

call pre, call flop, call turn, then lets see what happens on the river

probably raise/jam flop if you have the right dynamic and by that I mean being 3bet on the flop does not mean you are crushed and villain will bluff often/have worse draws etc...if it's vs someone who is unknown calling flop is probably best.