Turn line?

[Outlaw]

Villain 12/6/2.0 over 80 hands. First pot we've played. My bet sizing sucks, I realize that.. but I was trying to not be committed should he shove the turn.. instead he lays me 3 to 1 and I have a pair and 9 outs to the nuts. Ship turn or just call? His play me looked like a poorly played AK, KQ, KJ, set, or some kind of combo draw.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.25 BB (9 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

saw flop

UTG+1 ($28.60)
MP1 ($52.30)
MP2 ($26.05)
MP3 ($44)
Hero (CO) ($25)
Button ($26.80)
SB ($25.10)
BB ($29.50)
UTG ($25)

Preflop: Hero is CO with A, 5
5 folds, Hero bets $1, Button calls $1, 2 folds

Flop: ($2.35) 6, K, 5 (2 players)
Hero bets $1.10, Button calls $1.10

Turn: ($4.55) J (2 players)
Hero bets $2.15, Button raises to $5.50, Hero ?

This is my guess on a pokerstove. I added AA/KK because a lot of peeps slowplay big pairs at 25NL.

Board: 6d Kc 5d Jc
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 49.424% 49.42% 00.00% 1631 0.00 { Ac5c }
Hand 1: 50.576% 50.58% 00.00% 1669 0.00 { KK+, JJ, 66-55, AKs, KJs+, 87s, 43s, AKo, KJo+, 87o, 43o }

[Da GOAT]

you can take out all his draw type hands. check you range vs his made hands then check you equity to hit

[Outlaw]

you can take out all his draw type hands. check you range vs his made hands then check you equity to hit

Board: 6d Kc 5h Jc
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 26.586% 26.59% 00.00% 503 0.00 { Ac5c }
Hand 1: 73.414% 73.41% 00.00% 1389 0.00 { KK+, JJ, 66-55, AKs, KJs+, AKo, KJo+ }

So this is a clear fold since we don't know if he'll stack with all of these hands should the flush complete? And there is very little FE against that strong of a range so I can't shove?

Man I suck at math but it looks like folding is right unless I am missing something.

Thanks goat.

[Da GOAT]

no thats looks solid. id very much doubt villian will get aggro on turn even with the very best combo draws.

sure its possible he could be running a pure bluff like 10% of the time but you still gotta fold even if he bluffs such a %.

[Outlaw]

no thats looks solid. id very much doubt villian will get aggro on turn even with the very best combo draws.

sure its possible he could be running a pure bluff like 10% of the time but you still gotta fold even if he bluffs such a %.

Any idea how much equity would make continuing on the turn profitable vs a strong villain range?

[Da GOAT]

wots your equity to hit a flush. thats wot u need to break even, any better than that is great. you can accept worse odds slightly if you think you can get a modest bet from him on river.

[settecba]

Am I missing something? Hero has enough pot odds to draw.

[Carroters]

Yeah surely this is an easy call given pot odds + implied odds.

[Outlaw]

Against a strong range that you think will call a river bet, its a call I think. But if he won't pay off a flush, its 3-1.. we need 4-1 right?

[Kbryce23]

A nit raising on the turn means atleast JK imo. You have 3:1 direct odds and he is probably betting any river. What I'm not sure of is when you hit should you be shoving or check-raising. I think a c/r is better because his range is so strong and he's probably firing the river. Also, it's a backdoor FD so it is a bit more disguised.

[spoonitnow]

8 outs to the nuts*

For everyone who is like omfg this is the easiest call in the history of shit that's easy to call I think you're likely to be over-estimating our implied odds and under-estimating our reverse implied odds. I think it's somewhat marginal but I still call because I never make bad folds.

[settecba]

Why are you saying we have 3:1 direct odds? Its 4.28:1. Still not enough for heros NUT outs which are 8 as Spoon said, but still its a call.

[Kbryce23]

Why are you saying we have 3:1 direct odds? Its 4.28:1. Still not enough for heros NUT outs which are 8 as Spoon said, but still its a call.

3.64:1 direct odds?