pocket 9s versus co raise

[littleogre]

villain has a pfr of 8 and a c-bet percentage of 84

Absolute Poker (Cash Game): $0.01/$0.02 NL, 7 players
Mon, Oct 19, 2009 05:49:34 EDT
Powered by Poker Academy (Format: 2+2 Forums)

B2 ($0.87)
B1 ($1.79)
BN ($6.71)
Hero ($1.28)
BB ($2.91)
B4 ($0.72)
B3 ($1.75)

BN is the button.

Precards:
Hero posts the small blind $0.01, BB posts the big blind $0.02.

Preflop: Hero is dealt 9 9 (7 active)
B4 folds, B3 calls $0.02, B2 folds, B1 raises to $0.09, BN folds, Hero calls $0.08, 2 folds.

Flop: 3 7 T ($0.22, 2 active)
Hero checks, B1 bets $0.22, Hero calls $0.22.

Turn: 3 7 T 8 ($0.66, 2 active)
Hero checks, B1 bets $0.66, Hero calls $0.66.

River: 3 7 T 8 4 ($1.98, 2 active)
Hero checks, B1 bets $0.82 (all-in), [color=#ff8c00][i]

I have 45.5 percent equity versus his pf raising range but stacks are deep enough to see a flop. The flop isn't that scary. I figure unless he has AT or TT+ i'm infront I decide to just call as i'm not sure how many worse hands are calling a raise. On the turn i pick up a str8 draw. I would be around 61 percent versus his pf raising range but i think i can shrink his range at this point. I figure he has a big over or a set or maybe a flush draw. At the very least we can cut out ajo+. So my equity falls to 45. Plenty good enough to call . i don't like raising as i really think i'm behind at this point and i can't see him folding. I call with the intention of c-raise shoving if i hit. Possible c-calling if i miss. Depending on river and bet size. River is a harmless looking 4. Meaning i doubt it helped villain. He bets enough to put me all in. My main question would be is villain betting a missed draw on the river often enough to call.

[Belt]

Correct me if I'm wrong, but, after check-calling his exect pot sized bets all the way down, are you asking if you have to call your last 0.31 when taking pot odds of 1 to 7?

If so, yes, I guess you have to call it hoping he looses his sanity with something retarded...

By the way, why don't you buy-in full?

[daven]

On the turn i pick up a str8 draw. I would be around 61 percent versus his pf raising range but i think i can shrink his range at this point. I figure he has a big over or a set or maybe a flush draw. So my equity falls to 45. Plenty good enough to call .

i think you are optimistic.

Turn fold is better than turn call. If you include flush draws in his range then you're uncomfortable with 3 of your perceived 10 outs.
If you don't include flush draws then you don't have odds to call the bet.

pre-flop is fine, flop is marginal but maybe ok. Turn you can consider bet-folding, check-calling with odds, or check-folding.

[littleogre]

On the turn i pick up a str8 draw. I would be around 61 percent versus his pf raising range but i think i can shrink his range at this point. I figure he has a big over or a set or maybe a flush draw. So my equity falls to 45. Plenty good enough to call .

i think you are optimistic.

Turn fold is better than turn call. If you include flush draws in his range then you're uncomfortable with 3 of your perceived 10 outs.
If you don't include flush draws then you don't have odds to call the bet.

pre-flop is fine, flop is marginal but maybe ok. Turn you can consider bet-folding, check-calling with odds, or check-folding.

Not sure if it is possible to weigh ranges in stove but what if we weight his range to sets and big over pairs. Honestly i put his possible hands in the following priority.

big over pair
set
flush draw

[littleogre]

just ran it through stox ev. If we say villain is c-betting every time and betting the turn with flush draws and over pairs or better. My ev on the turn is -0.40. If we assume he is betting big hands and busted draws on the river my river ev is -.18

[daven]

i suggest writing down the ranges, as in listing the hands.
also, could yo please define what you mean when you say "my river ev is 0.18", this isn't a criticism - I just want to make sure we're talking about the same thing here.

Anyway, back to the hand. He's raising from the cutoff pre, so his range is wider than 8% if he shows any indication at all to stealing from late position.

Note that the pre-flop equity you are talking about is for all in situations, it is not what you use to make decisions about calling out of position. It's not useless information obviously, but it is not enough to make your decision. For what it's worth I think preflop calling is fine here, but it's not because of having 45.5% equity against his range...

Your flop assessment of the situation is good, he's c-betting most of his range (84% read is gold here) and you're definitely ahead of his range. Whether or not that makes check-call the best line is debatable. This is going to be long enough already though, you should consider the alternatives yourself, maybe start another thread with only the pre-flop and flop as the question.

Turn, you have an open ended straight draw plus you're still drawing to a set. So, before he bets (the bet affects his range significantly) you're ahead of a bunch of his range, against the rest you have likely 10 clean outs (maybe 7) = interesting spot. But, unfortunately, you are still out of position. Note how this makes the hand so much harder to play. What is the best action on this street? again, another thread. But wait until the flop thread is finished, then start another.

Very few villains are barreling here without a hand that beats yours. So, this becomes a pot-odds situation where you expect to have 10-outs - most players know to take a free card here with the flush draw.

10 outs = about 20% chance to hit on the river. You don't have pot odds to make this call. Again, this raises interesting questions on the best actions on both flop and turn.

also, in case you're interested, I just posted an article on full ring pre-flop play from the small blind in my blog/op. Could be worth a read for you? dunno. More importantly though, and better use of your time, read Renton's and Spoon's posts in the Full Ring digest. Read them all. Read them thoroughly. They are full of gold.

[littleogre]

i suggest writing down the ranges, as in listing the hands.
also, could yo please define what you mean when you say "my river ev is 0.18", this isn't a criticism - I just want to make sure we're talking about the same thing here.

Anyway, back to the hand. He's raising from the cutoff pre, so his range is wider than 8% if he shows any indication at all to stealing from late position.

Note that the pre-flop equity you are talking about is for all in situations, it is not what you use to make decisions about calling out of position. It's not useless information obviously, but it is not enough to make your decision. For what it's worth I think preflop calling is fine here, but it's not because of having 45.5% equity against his range...

Your flop assessment of the situation is good, he's c-betting most of his range (84% read is gold here) and you're definitely ahead of his range. Whether or not that makes check-call the best line is debatable. This is going to be long enough already though, you should consider the alternatives yourself, maybe start another thread with only the pre-flop and flop as the question.

Turn, you have an open ended straight draw plus you're still drawing to a set. So, before he bets (the bet affects his range significantly) you're ahead of a bunch of his range, against the rest you have likely 10 clean outs (maybe 7) = interesting spot. But, unfortunately, you are still out of position. Note how this makes the hand so much harder to play. What is the best action on this street? again, another thread. But wait until the flop thread is finished, then start another.

Very few villains are barreling here without a hand that beats yours. So, this becomes a pot-odds situation where you expect to have 10-outs - most players know to take a free card here with the flush draw.

10 outs = about 20% chance to hit on the river. You don't have pot odds to make this call. Again, this raises interesting questions on the best actions on both flop and turn.

also, in case you're interested, I just posted an article on full ring pre-flop play from the small blind in my blog/op. Could be worth a read for you? dunno.

it means that on average i loose 18 cents by calling the river bet. Clearly i didn't know it was that bad. I guess his range just doesn't include that many flush draws.

[daven]

it means that on average i loose 18 cents by calling the river bet. Clearly i didn't know it was that bad. I guess his range just doesn't include that many flush draws.

you wanna get better?
start by writing out the range

e.g. his co steal range could look like
pairs 22+
aces A7+
suited aces
suited connectors
broadways.

Now, which of these does he barrel the turn with? now you have a range against which to base your turn decision. etc.

[littleogre]

it means that on average i loose 18 cents by calling the river bet. Clearly i didn't know it was that bad. I guess his range just doesn't include that many flush draws.

you wanna get better?
start by writing out the range

e.g. his co steal range could look like
pairs 22+
aces A7+
suited aces
suited connectors
broadways.

Now, which of these does he barrel the turn with? now you have a range against which to base your turn decision. etc.

I think he barrels the turn with big over pairs and sets and sometimes nut flush draws. I will give what he had later. What do you think he had?

[daven]

I think he barrels the turn with big over pairs and sets and sometimes nut flush draws

so stove this and see if your turn play was good or bad. And post your answer here.
Then re-read the entire beginners digest.

I will give what he had later. What do you think he had?

who the hell cares what he had. Don't even bother giving it later. It is unimportant. You need to grasp this.....

[littleogre]

Here is a question which i have not ran through stox yet. I want to go back to the turn call. If we assume that we will check all rivers and that villain will shove all over pair+ hands and we will always call regardless of whether we hit or not is the turn call +ev