JJ got c/r on the turn

[clvacva]

UTG was 31/24 over small sample
The SB was a 84/26 fish

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.10 BB (6 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

UTG ($11.50)
MP ($15.55)
Hero (CO) ($25.35)
Button ($7.45)
SB ($10)
BB ($10)

Preflop: Hero is CO with ,
UTG bets $0.30, 1 fold, Hero raises to $1.30, 1 fold, SB calls $1.25, 1 fold, UTG calls $1

Flop: ($4) , , (3 players)
SB checks, UTG checks, Hero checks

Turn: ($4) (3 players)
SB checks, UTG checks, Hero bets $2.25, 1 fold, UTG raises to $5.80, Hero?

Utg line makes no sense right? what does he open rasie UTG,call a 3bet with one caller behind, check the flop and check/raise with on the turn. The hands I am worried about are 88/33 and AQ/KQ although I am pretty sure he would have lead out on the turn with a Queen. He may also think I am FOS and put me on AK and is trying to bluff me. So call,raise or fold.

[dontezuma]

Q is definitely in his range, AQ, KQ, QJ, QQ(!), but so are KK, AA, AK, TT, maybe 99, A8, A3 (unlikely, but, it's 10NL). 33 is unlikely, because there's only one way to make it and bottom set on the flop will likely donk into you. He could have a nutly hand like QQ or 88 and check twice to induce a bluff from you. I'm not sure what percent of the time he's not showing up with at least a queen.

If you think that % is >10 and he won't shove the river, you can probably call and try to see a cheap showdown. This is what you'd call a polarized range. You are either way ahead or way behind. You have no more than 2 outs if you're at all behind, and if he's got AK, he has as many as 6 outs to catch up.

In these situations, you typically want to get to showdown cheap, because you have showdown value. If he has air, he'll likely try to make showdown expensive (rep the Q or the 3 and hope to fold out your JJ- or AK-type hands) or give up after this checkraise. If you call the checkraise and he's giving up, he'll check the river unless he hits big. If he's pitbulling this pot, you're going to face a big bet on the river with what may very well be 78s.

The pot is already 31BBs (or 62bbs), so it's worth fighting for. At 31/24, this villain may well be the type to fight hard for pots and take it down a lot of times with worse.

I'm guessing you folded and are questioning how good a laydown it was. Or you called and folded to a river shove (this would be my guess).

If I decided this guy was bluffing, I'd call with the intention of calling a river shove if I'm not scared of him improving (AK and A8 are likely bluffing hands here, though he may be c/ring A8 for value to "find out where he is"). If I'd like to just end the hand and not let him hit his 2-6 outer, I can reraise AI here, but he's calling pretty much 100%, since he has 70%+ of his stack in the pot already.

In fact, since he just C/Red 50% of his stack, I'm thinking this is more likely to be for value than as a bluff. But, he may be betting for value with A8 or 55+, not putting you on a made hand, since you checked the flop.

So, in conclusion, I'm apt to fold here a fair amount of the time (~60%?), and reraise all in the rest. I don't cold call here often if ever, unless I really want to make sure he stays in the hand, and this board is dangerous enough for me not to want to encourage that.

[al yell]

shouldn't we be firing at this flop?

[Fnord]

Meh, I can go either way here.

[philly and the phanatics]

shouldn't we be firing at this flop?

+1

[clvacva]

HU it's an easy cbet but 3 way in a 3bet pot with a fish capable of calling pre with QT+ not sure if it is always a cbet.

dontezuma wow at your analysis you really thought about this. Totally agree that calling is not so fun.
btw your guessing is wrong

[dontezuma]

So you shoved and he called and you just didn't share the results yet? Did he hit his boat with 8s? WTH!? The suspense is KILLING ME! Lol. Seriously, what happened? I'm SOOO results oriented I can't stand it.

[clvacva]

I shoved opponent thought for a LONG time and folded.

[dontezuma]

Nice. So you figure him for non-q, non-8 PP or AK or A8?

[JKDS]

Ima rephrase and be more constructive.

As played, shoving turn seems pretty bad. We're way ahead of everything that doesnt crush us and way behind everything that does. A8 has 11% equity for instance, TT has 4%, and so on. UTG's line doesnt make a whole lot of sense either as he's repping a pretty tight range. AQ isnt likely as i think he'd donk flop or turn, QQ would probably do the same so he doesnt really have a ton of hands that beat us.

To maximize value then, we have two options. Bet now, or bet later. If we bet now, utg folds all his bluffs...we might get a crying call from A8 but i doubt it.

If we bet later, we allow utg to fire again with his bluffs as well as with his marginal hands giving us an extra bet (or two if he calls our riv raise).

Preflop: raise seems fine. this guy is pretty loose and probably continues fairly wide. maybe raise a little smaller to like 1.1 but its fine.

Flop: i like a check myself. i can see how villain can have a Q here and dont want to build a big pot against a range that could potentially have me crushed. It also allows villain to bluff some and makes him more likely to call down with his 2nd pair type hands.

[dontezuma]

Meh. This is why I suck. So, JKDS, you're saying a call is warranted since we have showdown value. But if we're calling this, villain only has $4.40 behind after his reraise. I'm frankly stunned that he even folded with so little left behind, but oh well.

We're obviously not letting this hand go on any river because we'll only be forced to call $4.40 to win a $20 pot. Therefore, he only needs to show up with TT- or AK, KJ, or AJ that miss the overcard on the river one out of 5 times to be profitable.

Am I missing something? As it stands, the turn RRAI pushed villain off AK or TT- or something that did in fact have outs. So he wins $7.10 from the villain without risking a river suckout versus a max of $11.50 with the risk of the suckout.

I think we're all comfortable with the flop check and the turn bet. Obviously, if he doesn't have a Q, he's not likely to check the turn, so his turn checkraise looks like a really bad bluff to me the more I look at it. It's even worse because he left himself less behind than the bet he just made. (So, Notes: Villain = ><>)

If he really wanted to blow you off the hand, he should have CRAI. I think you have a much harder call if he reraises you $10.50 with nothing behind. You'd expect him to show up with a slowplayed Q a huge % of the time. Probably AQ, since he raised UTG. But as it stands, he makes this awful badly sized reraise and then FOLDS!?! Hee-haw...

I guess you can call here, but I'm happy shutting it down with a fold if I think he's a good player, and a shove if I think he's the idiot he now appears to be. No reason to let AK get 6 outs on the river and steal your pot.

[JKDS]

hrm, i thought villain had more behind than that. my bad. callin and shoving both seem fine then.

well even if he has that little behind he's never putting in the rest of it with a bluff
say he plays perfectly and always folds worse on the turn and always calls better, then obviously a shove only protects us from the 10% equity villain has of winning the pot but more often gets $4 extra into the pot when we're behind

obviously villain doesn't play perfectly, but is he ever going to bluff shove river for his remaining moneys?
if so, we can call and call river and hope to pick up his leftover money
if we don't know, then shoving turn is probably best
if he's never going to bluff that little into such a large pot then go ahead and call turn, c|f river (!)