AA vs reg and a lot of aggression

[AFchung]

14/12 over a decent sample

How is the fold on the river? Are we calling down if the turn and river were not clubs? I don't see how we beat any hand here

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (8 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

saw flop

UTG+1 ($125.45)
MP1 ($88.15)
MP2 ($38.20)
CO ($97)
Button ($50.60)
SB ($51.25)
BB ($66.50)
Hero (UTG) ($73.35)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with A, A
Hero bets $2, 5 folds, SB calls $1.75, 1 fold

Flop: ($4.50) 5, K, 9 (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $3, SB raises to $9, Hero calls $6

Turn: ($22.50) J (2 players)
SB bets $12, Hero calls $12

River: ($46.50) J (2 players)
SB bets $28.25 (All-In), Hero folds

Total pot: $46.50 | Rake: $2.25

[pokerfan]

i cant see any worse hands you beat on the river.

so tempted to just fold flop

[kmind]

Can he do this with AK? If so then you have to call down if not fold flop.

[TonyB73]

What does he likely flat OOP? What is he c/ring the flop with?

If its a set, you're gone on the flop.
If its a FD, you're gone by the turn.
If its two pair , you're good by the river.
If its TP, you're good and still are by the river, unless its an unlikely KJ (only 6 combos).
If its air, you're good and probably still good on the river, unless he has a random J.

In my experience flats from the SB from a 14/12 type are often pocket pairs or suited connectors, which puts flush and set well and truly on the table.

I can't see any hands that make two pair that he would flat pre.

He might flat AK (maybe), AQ, AJ or KQ, and if he's aggro he might c/r AK or KQ on that flop, but would he c/r AJ? KJ seems too loose for this guy to flat pre. The other possibility is JJ, but only one combo, and how often does a 14/12 c/r JJ on a K-high flop?

So, unless you've seen this guy get bluffy or overly aggro with TP, I think you're gone on the turn and should fold there.

[kmind]

He should have a flush like 2% of the time.

[Muzzard]

Fold the turn if you're intending tofold to a river shove. I esp hate the turn call if you're folding unless a club comes, or an Ace.

Most of his flattiing range pre is pocket pairs esp OOP, he'd probably 3ball AK. Even if he has AK, c/r AK on this board is pretty dumb vs our EP range as we're gunna fold pretty much everything that he beats on a King high.

I'd like to know his cbet raise %, if you got a large sample. I think this is a fold a big % of the time on the turn. Folding flop seems super nit and pretty exploitable esp since we have position anyway and have blockers to most, if not all of his call OOP vs UTG FD range. If his cbetraise% is supernit then yeah I guess folding flop can be ok as he's repping 99/55 mostly.

[kmind]

Completely agree that AK should never c/r here but meh from my experience there were definitely players who did that. I also thought it was less likely they 3bet OOP vs. an UTG raiser. Could be wrong. If he really doesn't have AK then fold flop.

[Muzzard]

Completely agree that AK should never c/r here but meh from my experience there were definitely players who did that. I also thought it was less likely they 3bet OOP vs. an UTG raiser. Could be wrong. If he really doesn't have AK then fold flop.

Yes flatting is something ppl do vs UTG in FR, don't know the villain and OP hasn't posted any specific reads that lead me to rule out 3bing AK or even to say he never 3b's UTG pre with AK. What I will say is it is probably a slim portion of his range given pre, if he does like to 3b UTG w/AK and esp with flop action would kinda be retarded.

But yeah you're right, some regs do lolc/r TPTK OMG AK on this board even vs our UTG, which is kinda stupid.

I guess OP needs to post more info, to confirm or deny. But I'd say it's more likely 55 or 99, some random mid PP c/r if he's a c/r monkey and a sparing flushdraw give our Ac blocker and his PF stats.

[bikes]

Call flop. Fold turn.

[Miffed22001]

Completely agree that AK should never c/r here but meh from my experience there were definitely players who did that. I also thought it was less likely they 3bet OOP vs. an UTG raiser. Could be wrong. If he really doesn't have AK then fold flop.

i personally think c/r'ing AK from here puts a lot of hands under pressure, but its 50nl and as their all nits id expect to see nothing other than a set here as our rang clearly hits a lot of this flop (and its not like were folding teh ACES on King high flaps!!!!)

[Rainman]

Fold the turn if you're intending tofold to a river shove. I esp hate the turn call if you're folding unless a club comes, or an Ace.

First of all I should say that you guys know a lot more about poker than me and this is my first post. So maybe this will be a good demonstration of the my average poker knowledge that can be taken advantage of by better players.

I would think that the chances of him raising with AK are good because maybe he wants to scare away or get value from the flush draw.

And the move you hate on the turn is exactly what I would've done. I figure that if a club comes I can take all his chips with the nut flush. So we got a 1:4 odds there vs a 12 call for the rest of his stack which is, I think about $40 there. Haha, alright I guess it's still a bad call even then nevermind. In real time during the hand I probably would've made that bad call. What if his stack were bigger, like $80 left instead of $40. Still a bad call? If he has a flush I doubt he lays it down when raised. But I guess he could have a full house. Great, now I have to go take a nap after thinking about this, my head hurts. If you or someone else would break down how retarded my thinking is here I'd appreciate it.

[Sir Pawnalot]