just looking for some input on my figuring here, whether i made some errors and if theres a simplified equation to use on the fly that works for some of yous...

lets say its folded to a 22/16/2.5 reg who steals from the sb 22%

50nl, sb raises $2, we raises to $7 w/JThearts sb calls.
sb leads $10 ($14) on a 2d7h8h flop and we call
pot is $34. turn comes 2d7h8hkc

forget whether we should have raised flop, this is about the difference in profitability between 2 specific plays.

lets say for this example as well that we can sould read villain and we know he is checking his entire range on the turn, and we also know that we need the str or flush to beat his hand... and we only have 2 options... shove or check to see river.

we will also say that if the river hits us villain is check/folding.
so, we have 26% equity on the turn with 12 outs against villains, and we have the option to take a FREE card with 12 outs.

so we river a str, and take down the pot 26% of the time, which works out to $8.84 per hand (lose 74% of the time)
cost = 0 and we win an average of $8.84/hand

now in the case of a shove with 26% equity, ($33 into $34)
my math is showing the following avg profit in accordance with fold equity:

FE
5% - -$3.53
10% - -$1.55
Checking turn - $8.84
15% - $0.43
25% - $4.38
40% - $10.30
50% - $14.25
75% - $24.13


for this example we will also assume that villain never folds a blank river.

so clearly we have a choice between 2 +ev plays, but simple Fold Equity can make a huge difference in the most profitable of the 2 +ev plays.