200nl facing river shove

[Marshall28]

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $2.00 BB (6 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

Button ($227.30)
SB ($207)
BB ($306.60)
Hero (UTG) ($359)
MP ($446.85)
CO ($764.10)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with J, 10
Hero bets $8, 1 fold, CO calls $8, 3 folds

Flop: ($19) 2, 10, 3 (2 players)
Hero bets $12, CO raises to $35, Hero calls $23

Turn: ($89) 4 (2 players)
Hero checks, CO bets $90, Hero calls $90

River: ($269) 10 (2 players)
Hero checks, CO bets $631.10 (All-In)

Total pot: $269

Info on villain:
31/16/4% 3bet.
He got his stack by overcalling mine and another players all in preflop w/ 99 and sucking out.
Oh, and of 14 opportunities to raise the flop this is the first time he's done it.
His timing was quick on all streets, maybe thought two seconds before jamming river.

[Silly String]

I think you have to call since you let him continue his bluff. I guess fish get lucky too and man would that be a sick river card against AT. He would do this with JJ+ probably despite the river if he's a big enough fish.

[Marshall28]

I think you have to call since you let him continue his bluff. I guess fish get lucky too and man would that be a sick river card against AT. He would do this with JJ+ probably despite the river if he's a big enough fish.

He hasn't raised once yet preflop so I doubt he's raising top pair, and he is 3betting 4% so JJ is certainly included in that range.

[Silly String]

Oh, and of 14 opportunities to raise the flop this is the first time he's done it.

I skimmed your post and assumed this was 1/14 times he raised PF. I also assumed the 4% 3bet was over a small sample. So Nvmind. Doesn't really seem like the bluffy type from your read so I would c/f the turn.

[pocketfours]

Looks like a call to me. I wouldn't expect a weak player to bet full pot with a set on the turn.

I would have chosen a c/c line on the flop myself. As played I might actually fold the turn.

[griffey24]

I call the river because he doesn't think we have Tx here very much, and he probably continues his bluff since he somehow thinks his line looks like Tx turned into trips, even though he rarely has Tx like this.

[Marshall28]

If it's a bluff, then what actual cards is he holding ?

The one thing that makes me feel very sketchy about the spot is that he hasn't raised ONE c-bet in the 14 times people c-bet into him... This wouldn't concern you guys?

Also to make sure you guys are aware we are 180bb effective

[d0zer]

Despite me being a massive station, I'm usually inclined to assume guys like this have bet sizing tells, and his turn bet sizing is too frightening for me to continue with only JT here after the flop action with your read about his flop play.

Call me a nit, but I let it go on the turn.

[Numbr2intheWorld]

i let go of this pretty easily i'm surprised at some of these responses.

[Galapogos]

I definitely c/f the turn, there's hardly any river cards that are going to make me feel comfortable calling his inevitable river shove.

As played, I still fold the river. It's super unlikely this some random with passive tendencies is going to suddenly develop the balls to start shoving missed flush draws deep when it's very possible you just tripped up.

[dsaxton]

I doubt a passive player will suddenly decide to get aggressive when this deep stacked. Even though the turn bet sizing seems odd for a full house, he's certainly almost never bluffing, and a lot of his legitimate hands are in fact full houses (they're of course almost never worse than J-T), so it's not terribly unlikely he has an underfull once he makes this bet. He's probably just hoping you have a big hand and wants to win a big pot.

If you just decide he's never bluffing on the turn, which I think is probably the case, then this is probably a fold on the turn. Just be glad he's a passive player and you don't have to pay him off.

[mixchange]

I would fold. Unless is just a mega fish on tilt, this is usually a FH. I think we can discount overpairs considering he'll get it in pre light-ish 99+ (potentially). I also doubt he plays a FD this way, especially potting the turn. This looks more like a defensive bet on the turn to me

So what is left is complete air and a FH. This deep I'd fold


Anyone consider folding the turn? We have a nice hand to draw for less, but I don't expect to get a paid a lot if we do spike.

[IowaSkinsFan]

I'd fold. I think your range is possibly exploitable but I doubt he realizes this.

[Renton]

are the folders folding at?

[Renton]

my advice, calling turn makes river a mandatory call for logical reasons

Folding turn is certainly correct if you aren't fistpumping on this river. That said, in the heat of the moment I can understand calling turn, and I'm pretty sure I would have called turn and been in a tough spot on this river just like you. At that point I would have thought to myself "shouldn't have called turn if im not calling this" and called, lol.

[Renton]

Been thinking about this "call one street you must call the next" concept for a minute. I think in general its a weak concept. Certainly there is a significant chance that he checks behind the river. People's ranges tend to narrow from street to street no matter how strong their line looks up to this point. So it does make it ok to call the turn bet with poor odds if you think he's gonna check behind some % of the time on the river and your bare ten is good.

However, I think when he bets one dollar over the pot on the turn, those chances are somewhat low.

[bjsaust]

Weak players can definately overbet sets when they think someones drawing imo.

[Numbr2intheWorld]

my advice, calling turn makes river a mandatory call for logical reasons

Folding turn is certainly correct if you aren't fistpumping on this river. That said, in the heat of the moment I can understand calling turn, and I'm pretty sure I would have called turn and been in a tough spot on this river just like you. At that point I would have thought to myself "shouldn't have called turn if im not calling this" and called, lol.

You're probably right, i dont expect someone to check a river blank after a turn bet like this. Maybe you should just fold the turn.

[dsaxton]

Been thinking about this "call one street you must call the next" concept for a minute. I think in general its a weak concept.

Agreed. In general, people's hand ranges change drastically once they bet again after getting called from when they made the initial bet.

[pocketfours]

However, I think when he bets one dollar over the pot on the turn, those chances are somewhat low.

[Marshall28]

The more advice that's posted about this thread the more confused and unsure I'm honestly feeling about the spot.

I had a very extended debate about this with my coach. We had two very different perspectives and both were based basically on timing.

It's my contention that if villain had a hand he was semi bluffing on the turn, his general line of thought as he was playing the hand on flop and turn would delineate a need to think about shoving the river.

It's also my contention that if villain has a pure airball bluff, that this period of thought is completely irrelevant since if he isn't semi-bluffing the turn and is pure bluffing w/ complete air, he already knows before the river card falls that he's going to shove so there wouldn't be any delay in his action, he would just insta shove. The same he would do if he had 22 or 33.

If the river is a 9o I feel tons more comfortable c/c the river actually without much thought. The fact that he bet so quickly on the river, on a card he should perceive is a HIGH percentage of my range, I perceive this to mean he liked the card as it "improved his hand"

So based on all this, if I feel villain is capable of raising flop and potting turn w/ a complete airball, then his insta-shove on the river shouldn't be a concern to me since there is nothing that changes on the river that he needs to consider. I.E. --He's just bluffing so he knows he's gonna bluff river.

SO, if villain tanks for at least 5-8 seconds before shoving, I feel much more comfortable calling here w/ JT (even if the river is an offsuit 9) since I believe he had a legitimate semi-bluff on the turn and was expecting me to fold the turn or was expecting he would get there on the river. Now that neither of those things happened, I believe he would necessarily have to take at least a few seconds to process this information and then determine whether or not he can bluff the river.....This obviously leads to the question, how often does he have a pure airball compared to a semibluff or a flopped set? The information I use to make this determination is his % raise of c-bets on the flop.

I argued this vehemently w/ my coach and he disagrees and just thinks it's a clear call.

I have no idea what any of you guys are thinking considering folding the turn, the turn seems like a super trivial call to me.

What are your guys thoughts on this discussion about timing?

[griffey24]

The fact that he bet so quickly on the river, on a card he should perceive is a HIGH percentage of my range,

I said the exact opposite of this in my reply to this thread, and used it as reasoning FOR a call. You opened UTG, so I highly doubt he thinks Tx makes a big part of your range here. If anything, your hand looks more like 77-99 type stuff.

Furthermore, I think a lot of players flat big overpairs sometimes when UTG opens. Because of this, I think a good part of his flop raising range could actually be overpairs in this spot, as opposed to 222/333 on this board. Certainly if villain has a slow played KK/AA type hand here, he should be shoving for value on the river, if he doesn't think Tx makes a big part of your range.

So I wouldn't be surprised if villain is value towning himself sometimes even. Another reason why I call here. I don't think I snap it, and I don't hate a fold, but I think its close.

[IowaSkinsFan]

Idk dude we have a flush draw!

[AnTman_69]

why r some folding the turn? im confused...

[Numbr2intheWorld]

why r some folding the turn? im confused...

because your oop, a big river bet is coming on a blank (and probably not on a flush card, and the flush probably is your only out), and your losing already.

[dsaxton]

Folding the turn is part of a new theory in poker whereby one avoids difficult decisions because they're -EV.

Folding the turn is part of a new theory in poker whereby one avoids difficult decisions because they're -EV.

difficult decisions are not EV- every time

[pocketfours]

Results?

[Marshall28]

First of all I'd like to state a fact that I agree w/ what IOPQ says about difficult decisions.

As far as the hand goes....
Not sure we really came to a consensus on the best play ... some seem to think fold turn, but against a weaker player (and with all this equity I have) I think I can outplay him based on timing and he will make big big mistakes on the river sometimes.

And based on the results I think that's pretty true since I mucked and he showed 98hh for total airball bluff, which would be consistent w/ his timing...now only if I didn't give him so little credit for being able to raise the flop as a bluff....

[Parasurama]

backdoor straight flush draw itt

[dsaxton]

I was joking about the difficult decision thing.

It's really strange that he just decided to go nuts this hand. Maybe he took a bad beat on another table and went on megatilt, who knows?

[Galapogos]

First of all I'd like to state a fact that I agree w/ what IOPQ says about difficult decisions.

As far as the hand goes....
Not sure we really came to a consensus on the best play ... some seem to think fold turn, but against a weaker player (and with all this equity I have) I think I can outplay him based on timing and he will make big big mistakes on the river sometimes.

And based on the results I think that's pretty true since I mucked and he showed 98hh for total airball bluff, which would be consistent w/ his timing...now only if I didn't give him so little credit for being able to raise the flop as a bluff....

[ ] outplayed him

jk, I'm an ass.

I still honestly think folding the turn is the best play. Sure these guys are capable of doing this no sense spazz sometimes, but it's still way too rare imo. But you had no inclination to believe he was capable of it, and like you said, you were doubtful he could raise the flop as a bluff and almost all those value hands still beat you.

[Alexos]

I'm not folding anywhere. This guy is clearly one of those that will snap shove QQ+ on river even if the T is the horriblest card for him.

[Numbr2intheWorld]

This is the problem with online. We can't tell he's changed his view at all.

[Numbr2intheWorld]

Here's the thing: I think we all agree that he's rarely value shoving any worse. Also we all know that this call will have absolutely no metagame. This means we have to win this ~30% of the time. If we think that he's valueshoving something worse ~10% of the time (which i think is a liberal estimate), that means he would have to have been not only bluff raising this flop, but also triple barreling 20% of the time. And the information you have is he's passive and hasn't raise the flop in the 14 times you've seen him. How can any of you guys or girls put him on a bluff enough.

[Luke999]

Here's the thing: I think we all agree that he's rarely value shoving any worse. Also we all know that this call will have absolutely no metagame. This means we have to win this ~30% of the time. If we think that he's valueshoving something worse ~10% of the time (which i think is a liberal estimate), that means he would have to have been not only bluff raising this flop, but also triple barreling 20% of the time. And the information you have is he's passive and hasn't raise the flop in the 14 times you've seen him. How can any of you guys or girls put him on a bluff enough.

Exactly

[pocketfours]

Here's the thing: I think we all agree that he's rarely value shoving any worse. Also we all know that this call will have absolutely no metagame. This means we have to win this ~30% of the time. If we think that he's valueshoving something worse ~10% of the time (which i think is a liberal estimate), that means he would have to have been not only bluff raising this flop, but also triple barreling 20% of the time. And the information you have is he's passive and hasn't raise the flop in the 14 times you've seen him. How can any of you guys or girls put him on a bluff enough.

Does this look like a value line from a passive player to you? Fold the turn or call the river, nothing else makes any sense. I don't see why people like this hand so much, I'd have no problem letting go on the turn myself.

[mcatdog]

Here's the thing: I think we all agree that he's rarely value shoving any worse.

I don't.

I see weak players slowplay big pairs preflop, raise the flop and BOMB the turn all the time. He might check back the river with a big pair, then again he might not. And given how few value combos he's representing, I don't think you can even say that he's "rarely" value shoving worse.

I fold turn but call river as played, to be honest I don't think it's that tough of a spot.

[bigspenda73]

I'd perceive the fact that he has not raised the flop in 14 time a lot differently than you Marshall, especially if I've seen him show down a stronger hand after not raising the flop.

[IowaSkinsFan]

Here's the thing: I think we all agree that he's rarely value shoving any worse.

I don't.

I see weak players slowplay big pairs preflop, raise the flop and BOMB the turn all the time. He might check back the river with a big pair, then again he might not. And given how few value combos he's representing, I don't think you can even say that he's "rarely" value shoving worse.

I fold turn but call river as played, to be honest I don't think it's that tough of a spot.

In my experience I have to disagree. If this was a tournament I'd totally agree with this reasoning. People in low stakes 6 max cash games are such vshoving nits. If he timed down at all i'd call, otherwise id fold

[Alexos]

wow i misread this hand completely, disregard my previous comments

id prolly call the turn and fold the river.. i assume he'd shutdown with some flush draws/bluffs on river..although i don't mind a turn fold either i guess

can anyone explain why if we call turn, we have to call river? You guys are assuming he's continuing with 100% of his turn barreling range?

[mcatdog]

People who want to call turn and fold river, two questions.

1. Do you ever expect him to check back the river after overbetting the turn?
2. What range do you put him on where you have enough equity + implied odds to call the turn, but not enough equity to call the river?

[wufwugy]

how is nobody wanting to come over the top on flop?

how is nobody wanting to come over the top on flop?

we're 180BB deep, have showdown value and a good draw
it's possible, but if he's 4bing the flop it won't be with a flush draw we'll be looking at a set every time

[griffey24]

how is nobody wanting to come over the top on flop?

We're too deep for this. No better hand is folding if we 3bet, all worse hands are folding, and we're not afraid of clubs.

100bb I'd just 3bet and hope he ships a worse draw.

[wufwugy]

lots of stuff we beat isn't folding to a 3bet since villain is a noob

[Alexos]

lots of stuff we beat isn't folding to a 3bet since villain is a noob

its just not a good spot to 3bet. His FDs and better TPs have ~45+% equity vs us, and some hands have us crushed..

[wufwugy]

its a great spot to 3bet. he's a nub so he's gonna show up with stuff like he did, will over value other pairs, and the amount of crush he has on us is super small given there are only 7 combos of crush, even then we're not actually crushed since we are never way behind, and our equity is about 45% vs a nit range and a few draws, yet this is too tight a range to give a nub. villain overcalls shoves with 99, he's gonna put us on a draw or nothing a greater than zero percentage of the time and own himself. and this'll keep us from owning ourself by losing the pot due to folding

this is a fine play for 100bb vs a nit, which is about equal to 180bb vs a nub.

actually I just watched a video where brian townsend explained these spots
so what happens is that he can have a lot of hands with tons of equity against us and we'd like him to fold those to a flop 3b

so get it in as 40%, that's fine
but what we get for that is we make him fold hands with good equity against us like A2/A3/A4/A5, 45o, 56o that he might decide to semibluff
now on that turn we have no clue if he just made a straight by semibluffing a gutshot or he's continuing

because he's bad we actually don't expect him to continue with his bluffs on the turn after c/r

against a very predictable opponent that we have a good read on a flat is best because we can exploit him on later streets
against a fish who just does random bluffs from time to time I think a 3b is in order because we have tons of equity anyway
against a super tough opponent that will bluff good cards to bluff/handread/give up on cards that hit our range it's probably a 3b again because we don't want to deal with trying to figure out what the fuck to do on an <<insert scare card>> turn and river shove unimproved

we lose $72 by getting it in with 40% equity
but we win $54 by making him fold to a 3b

I suspect we make an insane profit here because he's probably folding to a 3b quite a lot especially if he decided to raise AT here or something because he's going to be in a shit spot when we 3b HUGE since being UTG we can rep JJ+ and he can't

[Numbr2intheWorld]

how is nobody wanting to come over the top on flop?

How about he hasn't raised the flop on 17 previous occasions.

[wufwugy]

how is nobody wanting to come over the top on flop?

How about he hasn't raised the flop on 17 previous occasions.

We can't gain any kind of read from this given that his stats and the 99 hand show that he's a nub and he doesn't know what he's doing. A lot of players with these kinds of stats save their aggression for when they actually don't have the nuts, some will do it only with the nuts, the rest will land somewhere in the middle.

Our hand is almost always a raise raise raise kind of thing. We're never far behind, when we're up against a better draw we have a made hand, when we're up against a better made hand we have a draw, we pick up the pot 100% of the time villain was trying to put one past us, and we never make mistakes later by accidentally folding the best hand or folding our equity on the turn (which happens more than most would like to admit).

There are very few instances where coming over the top with a pair+fd is a bad idea. Playing against nubs is pretty much never one of them.