10NL: 77 IP against MP open

[DaD01ng]

Villain is 18/11/2 and I haven't seen him involved in any big hands thus far.

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $0.10 BB (6 handed) - Party-Poker Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

SB ($14.49)
MP ($15.46)
BB ($10.79)
Button ($6.85)
UTG ($20.15)
Hero (CO) ($24.94)

Preflop: Hero is CO with ,
1 fold, MP bets $0.40, Hero calls $0.40, 3 folds
Villain open in MP so I'm giving him a pretty tight range. Anyways, I call with 77 preflop not only to hit a set but even if I miss, I should be able to win a fair bit of pots against him IP.

Flop: ($0.95) , , (2 players)
MP bets $0.68, Hero raises $2, MP calls $1.32
Flop is gin!!! However, it's also very draw heavy. Anyways he cbets which he does 80% of the time, and I raise here because I expect him to call with many hands. I mean there's not many hands I'd be raising here for value, but there are a lot of draws/bluffs I could be raising here.

Turn: ($4.95) (2 players)
MP checks, Hero bets $3.50, MP calls $3.50
Turn is a blank, I bet, he calls... Pretty standard, I'm getting ready to win a big pot...

River: ($11.95) (2 players)
MP raises to $9.56 (All-In), HERO????
Yeah, so he decides to shove for pot on the river. This is actually a really scary bet because his AF is so low. The 6 on the river means that any 8 will win the hands, problem is I can't see villain with any 8's in his range apart from 88. I can't see villain slowplaying 99 or TT either because the board is so draw heavy that he would've wanted to get it in earlier on the flop or at the very least the turn. Now honestly what could he be doing this with since he is so not aggro... What would u do?

Hand 2:

[BluffCheck]

i think you have to fold

[DaD01ng]

i think you have to fold

Why? What makes you say that?

[BluffCheck]

the question basically comes down to how often he is bluffing, which turns into a guessing game imo. if he's 18/11/2 he's obviously not terrible, and i would just take the solid line of folding.

note that an 8 is an OESD on the flop/turn which makes it more likely that he would continue with an 8 in his hand, especially with hands like 88, 98, T8, 78

[Gobbatino]

What's your table image like? This is tricky without a read, but I guess you have to fold unless you've been pushing people around a lot. The only thing you can beat is JJ-AA or a bluff. I can't really see him making the shove with that though. Tough spot.

[Luco]

Fold, then go punch a cat.

[bigspenda73]

it's close, what's not close is how bad your flop raise and turn bet sizes were

[kmind]

it's close, what's not close is how bad your flop raise and turn bet sizes were

[sarbox68]

it's close, what's not close is how bad your flop raise and turn bet sizes were

Call me dense... I'd make the flop raise bigger, prolly to around 2.75 (which may still be incorrect...) But as played, the 3/4-ish Turn bet denies him the 4.75:1 odds for an OESD, 4.1:1 for the FD. I guess potting it or slightly over-betting would give him incorrect odds for the 2.1:1 for a combo if he's sitting on Ah8h - but that's basically one hand combination. As played, we're set up to get it in on another 3/4-ish River bet. So I get some tweaks to the Turn sizing but not the really bad....

[Cougar]

What would be the optimal bet sizes on flop/turn here?

Like $3.00 and $7.00 (pot given increased flop bet) to make the river bet trivial?

[surviva316]

since the flop is soaking wet and you virtually have the nuts you need to bet size so that you never have to make a hard decision on the river because there's like 99% chance that a scare card's gonna hit by then. a scare card hit and you have a hard decision on the river, that's why your bet sizing isn't good. as for what you should bet you should be able to do that math/logic yourself.

another factor here is that since villain is so tight you have to consider his range for continuing. he never has TPTK or something like that where you have to worry about keeping in the hand. his only hands that hit here are JJ+, 88, 76s-JTs and all sorts of combo draws and draws + overcards. every other hand is folding here REGARDLESS of our betsizing. and as far as the hands that are listed here: JJ+ isn't folding regardless of our bet sizing (except for maybe JJ, and POSSIBLY QQ) so long as you don't just push. 88 and all the hands with draws you want to make pay to continue and aren't totally upset if they fold. if the flop were K-high or somehting like that then we have to be more conservative with our bet sizing because we're trying to string along KQ, AK type hands, and depending on how dry the board is there are far less scare cards