1. He looks
passive 64/2. That puts his
PFR range prolly around
TT+,AKs,AKo. I'
m guessing his 3b is at 6% 'cause he's had some nice cards in the sample you're looking it.
2. I doubt w/ a 2%
PFR he's positionally aware... the above
range is 3% assuming he might be a little bit... and raising you a little wider 'cause he'll have
position post, plus it's prolly BvB which is a little wider usually aswell.
3. He calls your 4bet... meh I'
m not sure this means much given how
passive this guy is. I'
m guessing that he's pretty much always continuing with that
tight of a PF raising
range. But maybe
discount AA-
KK as a) you got blockers and b) there's a chance he'd come
over the top with them.
4. That leaves his 4-bet
calling range weighted towards
JJ-
TT and if we want to get a little liberal... AQs+, AKo
So stove it... versus that
range you have 35%
equity on that board, an $8 pot and effective remaining stacks of around 6.50... so basically one more bet. If you
shove you'll be betting $6.50 to win $21, which is 31%. You need
fold equity to make this work, so
check/calling is out IMHO. So it's
shove or
fold... and with a
fold to cbet of 50%, and pretty much most of his
range looking weaker than it did pre-
flop (
TT-
JJ no
set, AK a whiff)... I think you've got at least enough to make up the necessary 6% to warrant the
shove.
I
shove and let god sort the rest out....
