101 questions regarding 4betting as a bluff

[surviva316]

Since the 3ballin' thread was so informative i figured i'd take the discussion a step further. let's say it's full ring and villain is a standard TAgg reg, running 15/10 over 100 hands and 3bets 10%. we've seen him stackoff QQ's when he 3bet with K6s. we both have a 100bb just to make any math easy:

Hero (CO) is dealt XxXx

5 folds, Hero raises 4bb's, villain re-raises to 12bb's, Hero's turn to act...

Ok, so first thing's first. what does it take for us to have a sufficient read on villain that he is in fact a 3baller (they're pretty rare at 10NL and below). obviously if we've seen him showdown K6s, it's easy, but let's say we haven't seen him showdown anything suspicious, what kind of numbers does it take to clue us in? is 10% 3betting sufficient, and if so is it sufficient over a smallish sample like 100 hands?

Now onto the 4betting. How often should we expect villain (without reads) to flat this bet? i know that personally i'm almost never flatting a 4bet if i'm in villain shoes because if i have something worth calling with, then it's worth going all in with and unless i have AA's against an aggro that i think will lead push the flop with worse (notice that the fact that villain has position is actually a disadvantage here imo). but is any old 10NL villain flatting often here? if he does flat does this change his range from the standard {QQ+, AK}, or make and groupings of those hands more likely?

and if we expect to see villain to flat this bet often with his non-bluffing range, does that mean that our decision to 4bet bluff comes down to what hand we hold as much as it comes down to the situation? or is it completely situation-dependent?

if it is hand dependent then i suspect that our pocket pairs (likely 22+, TT-) are the most profitable to do it with. of course, we're only sucking out against the pocket pairs 1/8 times, but this seems like better odds to me than JTs, eg, because a flopped FD, or OESD doesn't help us when we have next to no FE.

finally what's our plan of action if we our bluff gets flatted and we see a flop? the only scenario i could forsee being profitable (assuming that his range is QQ+, AK) is if the flop comes A-high. we only need a cbet push to work 42.9% of the time and 44% of his range (QQ, KK) likely fold, and even this is marginal (may not even cover the rake). but are we just supposed to c/f any flop that doesn't have us suck out on QQ?

lots of stuff i know, but i hope it's a start to a lively discussion

[spoonitnow]

It's kinda like every other bet in the world that's a bluff.

you probably need a 200+ hand sample before 10% 3b for sure has some bluffs in it
today I played with a guy who had 16% 3b over 100, but after a hundred more hands it went down to 6% and I'm pretty sure he just ran good the first 100

in terms of flatting, the bigger you make it the less likely they are to flat
the problem with 4bing big 100bb deep is that you're super-exploitable to a 5b shove since you get such good odds to call

that's why when he 3bs to 12bb, you should NOT make it 36bb as a bluff
make it pretty small, like 28bb
if he flats, then just go ahead and gaybet the flop and shove turn
of course you're not doing that on every board, but to figure out when it's profitable you have to use magic
MAGIC = MATH + LOGIC

[GatorJH]

3bets 10%..... he 3bet with K6s

You have a very concrete hand that can help here. K6s is in the top 25% of hands, not top 10% so the question becaomes was this a 3bet bluff or is that really part of his 3bet range?

3bets 10%..... he 3bet with K6s

You have a very concrete hand that can help here. K6s is in the top 25% of hands, not top 10% so the question becaomes was this a 3bet bluff or is that really part of his 3bet range?

well he could be flatting with hands in the top 15% but not in the top 3% and bluffing with the top 22% but not top 15% which makes 7% bluffs and 3% value

also I'd rather bluff K6s than A6o because we have a chance of flopping a flush draw if called so while K6s is a worse hand for a shove, it's slightly more playable post-flop